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Russia exports fuel which they take from the ground. China makes goods from things they import using western know-how and sell them back to the west. Everybody

by ajuc 3y ago

Russia exports fuel which they take from the ground. China makes goods from things they import using western know-how and sell them back to the west. Everybody needs fuel. Rich countries need iphones. When you are isolated you can still pump oil. You can't make iphones. These are polar opposites when it comes to dependency on the west. > The reason is that no-one cares about Taiwan in the West, it is a pawn against China. I wonder what would be your prediction about the West caring about Ukraine in 2021 :) If anything - even fewer people cared about it than about Taiwan. Yet here we are. There's 2 things so called "realists" and "geopoliticians" consistently get wrong. The first is that the only things that matter are economies, armies, nukes, and geography. These people couldn't predict USSR falling, because they thought every culture and every system is the same and values are cosmetic. Meanwhile people like Giedroyć proposed a strategy for Poland after "inevitable USSR collapse and creation of independent Ukraine and Belarus" in 60s already. Look it up - google for "Giedroyć doctrine" and "Kultura paryska". The second thing "realists" consistently get wrong is assuming democracies are weak and fickle and authocracies are strong and resilient. It's an easy mistake to make, because democracies are transparent about their weaknesses and authocracies hide them. But that's exactly why it's a mistake. Democracies are actually surprisingly bloodthirsty once you persuade people something is worth fighting for. Much easier to change the mind of the leader than to change the minds of millions of people. And all wars are ultimately about changing somebody's minds.

mytailorisrich 3y ago
No-one cares about Ukraine in the West. The current help the US provide to Ukraine is painless and in fact the US are benefiting from the war on a number of front (of course that's the actual reason for the support). If the situation in Taiwan was painful in the West because of the economic impacy then Western public opinions would tire long before the Chinese do because, again, this would be nothing to them while for Chinese it would be a national cause. Here in the UK many people are already unhappy that we're paying so much, including on our energy bills, for Ukraine. The situation in Europe is not painless and that puts a strain on public opinion. This has nothing to do with democracies vs autocracies. One thing that many get wrong about China is that reunification is not what the CCP wants to achieve it is what the Chinese people want to achieve. And the US do not want that no matter whose in charge in Beijing because their aim is to weaken China. And again, none of that would trigger WWIII.

by ajuc 3y ago

mytailorisrich 3y ago

No-one cares about Ukraine in the West. The current help the US provide to Ukraine is painless and in fact the US are benefiting from the war on a number of front (of course that's the actual reason for the support). If the situation in Taiwan was painful in the West because of the economic impacy then Western public opinions would tire long before the Chinese do because, again, this would be nothing to them while for Chinese it would be a national cause. Here in the UK many people are already unhappy that we're paying so much, including on our energy bills, for Ukraine. The situation in Europe is not painless and that puts a strain on public opinion. This has nothing to do with democracies vs autocracies. One thing that many get wrong about China is that reunification is not what the CCP wants to achieve it is what the Chinese people want to achieve. And the US do not want that no matter whose in charge in Beijing because their aim is to weaken China. And again, none of that would trigger WWIII.