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> and fortunately or unfortunately, for many, work provides that function. I agree with this, but the problem is that there is no guarantee of work being avail

> and fortunately or unfortunately, for many, work provides that function. I agree with this, but the problem is that there is no guarantee of work being available to everyone. With the rise of AI and hyper-specialization of work, that problem is only going to get worse.

bumby 3y ago
I see the problem but have a hard time squaring it with history. Decades ago I had an old professor who spoke about how he was tasked, as a student decades prior yet, to write a report on what people will do with all their free time due to automation. And yet, here we are with people still working many hours on average and many jobs going unfulfilled. I personally think it’s a problem with our relationship to work, rather than limited opportunity for work. Humans seem to have an insatiable apple for more, which requires continued amounts of work to be done. I think the bigger problem is getting people to have the skills to do the jobs that will still need to be done.
AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> I agree with this, but the problem is that there is no guarantee of work being available to everyone. With the rise of AI and hyper-specialization of work, that problem is only going to get worse. The key here is to make sure that automation and cost efficiencies make it through to the production of necessities, and we don't prop up artificial scarcity. There are an effectively unlimited number of jobs that employers would pay someone $0.01/hour to do. Not as many that employers would pay $100/hour to do. So if you need to make $100/hour to afford housing and medicine, that's a problem. But if we reduce the artificial scarcity and regulatory overhead in these industries, so you only have to make $5/hour to afford them, we're in a much better place. And all the better if lower costs allow someone to make a living at $2/hour. AI and automation can help to reduce those costs. As long as they're in the right places (i.e. production of necessities) and we don't have regulatory capture preventing it from happening there.
- bumby 3y ago
  How do you see automation helping housing? I work in an org interested in 3D printed structures and it still seems a long way off. Or are you looking at improvements in logistics that make it easier to live in less expensive areas?
  - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
    It can be more than one thing. But one of the interesting possibilities for housing is modular construction. You mass produce homes on an assembly line as walls prefitted with plumbing and electrical, put them on a truck and snap them together at the site. Now you can produce them wherever labor costs are low and assemble them in a matter of days or weeks rather than months or years. This doesn't get you out of zoning restrictions but could allow you to recover from their historical effects more quickly after zoning reform is achieved.
    - toast0 3y ago
      People keep saying this, and it keeps not happening in a significant way as described. Trucking assembled parts is harder than trucking the parts, which tends to limit the distances assemblies are trucked. It becomes cost efficient to truck construction workers (even if it's not great for the workers). That said, some assemblies have become pretty common, I think preassembled roofing trusses are frequently used in favor of framing on site.
      - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
        > It becomes cost efficient to truck construction workers (even if it's not great for the workers). This gives me a different idea and I wonder if it's worthwhile. There are industrial robots that e.g. mass produce cars. Suppose you make one to mass produce housing, but instead of putting it in the factory you put it on the truck. Put it on the construction site. It takes a pile of lumber, cuts it to length and turns it into walls, puts the pipes and wires through the walls etc. This is the kind of thing that existing industrial robots can actually do if you program them appropriately. Then you send it across the street to put together another building. Assembly line, but the products are big so instead of moving the products to the next station you move the robots.

bumby 3y ago

I see the problem but have a hard time squaring it with history. Decades ago I had an old professor who spoke about how he was tasked, as a student decades prior yet, to write a report on what people will do with all their free time due to automation. And yet, here we are with people still working many hours on average and many jobs going unfulfilled. I personally think it’s a problem with our relationship to work, rather than limited opportunity for work. Humans seem to have an insatiable apple for more, which requires continued amounts of work to be done. I think the bigger problem is getting people to have the skills to do the jobs that will still need to be done.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago

> I agree with this, but the problem is that there is no guarantee of work being available to everyone. With the rise of AI and hyper-specialization of work, that problem is only going to get worse. The key here is to make sure that automation and cost efficiencies make it through to the production of necessities, and we don't prop up artificial scarcity. There are an effectively unlimited number of jobs that employers would pay someone $0.01/hour to do. Not as many that employers would pay $100/hour to do. So if you need to make $100/hour to afford housing and medicine, that's a problem. But if we reduce the artificial scarcity and regulatory overhead in these industries, so you only have to make $5/hour to afford them, we're in a much better place. And all the better if lower costs allow someone to make a living at $2/hour. AI and automation can help to reduce those costs. As long as they're in the right places (i.e. production of necessities) and we don't have regulatory capture preventing it from happening there.

bumby 3y ago
How do you see automation helping housing? I work in an org interested in 3D printed structures and it still seems a long way off. Or are you looking at improvements in logistics that make it easier to live in less expensive areas?
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  It can be more than one thing. But one of the interesting possibilities for housing is modular construction. You mass produce homes on an assembly line as walls prefitted with plumbing and electrical, put them on a truck and snap them together at the site. Now you can produce them wherever labor costs are low and assemble them in a matter of days or weeks rather than months or years. This doesn't get you out of zoning restrictions but could allow you to recover from their historical effects more quickly after zoning reform is achieved.
  - toast0 3y ago
    People keep saying this, and it keeps not happening in a significant way as described. Trucking assembled parts is harder than trucking the parts, which tends to limit the distances assemblies are trucked. It becomes cost efficient to truck construction workers (even if it's not great for the workers). That said, some assemblies have become pretty common, I think preassembled roofing trusses are frequently used in favor of framing on site.
    - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
      > It becomes cost efficient to truck construction workers (even if it's not great for the workers). This gives me a different idea and I wonder if it's worthwhile. There are industrial robots that e.g. mass produce cars. Suppose you make one to mass produce housing, but instead of putting it in the factory you put it on the truck. Put it on the construction site. It takes a pile of lumber, cuts it to length and turns it into walls, puts the pipes and wires through the walls etc. This is the kind of thing that existing industrial robots can actually do if you program them appropriately. Then you send it across the street to put together another building. Assembly line, but the products are big so instead of moving the products to the next station you move the robots.