The author is asking the wrong question in the name example which is why the odds ratio is so huge. The correct question is what are the odds someone is tellin

The author is asking the wrong question in the name example which is why the odds ratio is so huge. The correct question is what are the odds someone is telling the truth about their name given your expecation that they will tell you their true name when asked. The odds of the name being Mark Xu is irrelevant unless I have some shortlist of names I am comparing against, and then I would use the odds of the name being on the shortlist, not the global odds. It's obvious that the author's question is wrong because I would only be slightly surprised if I discovered that someone lied about their name, which is inconsistent with me having strong evidence for their name.