3 ms·

> No one really knows but it wont be as good as the last few decades. Such confidence! The first part is of course true, but you’ll make money teaching the mar

> No one really knows but it wont be as good as the last few decades. Such confidence! The first part is of course true, but you’ll make money teaching the market that you are smarter if the latter is true. Perfectly possible that AI kicks the economy into overdrive in the next few years and growth increases. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but also wouldn’t bet my house against it either.

rubicon33 3y ago
How would AI do that?
- dannyw 3y ago
  I’m genuinely a little bit more productive with ChatGPT. A lot of tasks I do take 30 mins or a hours less, several times per week.
  - ghaff 3y ago
    So a basically trivial improvement in other words.
    - popinman322 3y ago
      Half an hour of time recovered using a system not specialized to the work at hand. With better tooling and integrations that could scale to several hours a day spent doing more valuable work.
    - thfuran 3y ago
      How is that trivial? Even one task done a few times a week taking half an hour less is at least a 2% increase in productivity (assuming these tasks are work related and a 40 hour work week). "A lot" of such tasks would easily add up to 10%+.
    - the_sleaze9 3y ago
      I believe his statement lies in the fact that wealth is not money, but productivity. He's saying if every atom of the economy is n% more productive, that will grow the economy by n%.
    - CamperBob2 3y ago
      With the first generation of tools. If there's a sure-fire early way to make money from AI, it's going to involve betting against people who blow it off.
      - ghaff 3y ago
        I don't blow off the future. But I do think there's a lot of excess hype currently.
    - danielmarkbruce 3y ago
      I save at least 10 hours a week using ChatGPT. Likely more.
- theptip 3y ago
  Automating knowledge work -> increasing labor productivity.
Findeton 3y ago
Absolutely no chance that AI is able to do that. Investing decisions are too subjective for the current state of AI. A good value investor knows this… and also knows that you don’t need a bull market to make decent returns.
- danans 3y ago
  > Investing decisions are too subjective for the current state of AI I think they are talking about AI driving growth in the broader economy, not making investment decisions. Even still, it's not clear that AI will drive that kind of growth.
  - galaxyLogic 3y ago
    It is not clear exactly how, but kind of makes common sense. Productivity is about producing the same things faster. If AI can do part of our work for us it means we can accomplish more with the time saved.
    - bumby 3y ago
      Or, fewer and fewer people are needed for approximately the same amount of production. This may lead to a further bifurcated society. I do think that a service-oriented economy has many, many more nooks and crannies to hide non-productive jobs, though, and that could perpetuate the “bullshit job economy” hypothesis.
      - galaxyLogic 3y ago
        Fewer people are needed to perform a specific job as we do it today. But there will always be room to improve the products and services we produce and to make them cheaper. Consider the steam-locomotive. It was a great invention but we didn't stop there now we have bullet-trains and hyperloops. There is also plenty of room at the bottom as famously noted by Feynman I think. We can make products smaller to make them easier to carry around. New cheaper price points create new demand and new markets. Also as economies improve, people will have fewer children, because they don't need them to take care of themselves at old age. So it's not like we will have too many people having nothing to do. On the contrary I think AI can be the great equalizer: Rather than having fewer people who know how to do things, we will have more people who are able to do things with the help of AI. The technology by itself will not produce a great society however. We need democracy to accomplish that. As people will have more free time they will have time to study and more and more people will demand democracy because they will understand it's the only way to avoid wars.

rubicon33 3y ago

How would AI do that?

dannyw 3y ago
I’m genuinely a little bit more productive with ChatGPT. A lot of tasks I do take 30 mins or a hours less, several times per week.
- ghaff 3y ago
  So a basically trivial improvement in other words.
  - popinman322 3y ago
    Half an hour of time recovered using a system not specialized to the work at hand. With better tooling and integrations that could scale to several hours a day spent doing more valuable work.
  - thfuran 3y ago
    How is that trivial? Even one task done a few times a week taking half an hour less is at least a 2% increase in productivity (assuming these tasks are work related and a 40 hour work week). "A lot" of such tasks would easily add up to 10%+.
  - the_sleaze9 3y ago
    I believe his statement lies in the fact that wealth is not money, but productivity. He's saying if every atom of the economy is n% more productive, that will grow the economy by n%.
  - CamperBob2 3y ago
    With the first generation of tools. If there's a sure-fire early way to make money from AI, it's going to involve betting against people who blow it off.
    - ghaff 3y ago
      I don't blow off the future. But I do think there's a lot of excess hype currently.
  - danielmarkbruce 3y ago
    I save at least 10 hours a week using ChatGPT. Likely more.
theptip 3y ago
Automating knowledge work -> increasing labor productivity.

Findeton 3y ago

Absolutely no chance that AI is able to do that. Investing decisions are too subjective for the current state of AI. A good value investor knows this… and also knows that you don’t need a bull market to make decent returns.

danans 3y ago
> Investing decisions are too subjective for the current state of AI I think they are talking about AI driving growth in the broader economy, not making investment decisions. Even still, it's not clear that AI will drive that kind of growth.
- galaxyLogic 3y ago
  It is not clear exactly how, but kind of makes common sense. Productivity is about producing the same things faster. If AI can do part of our work for us it means we can accomplish more with the time saved.
  - bumby 3y ago
    Or, fewer and fewer people are needed for approximately the same amount of production. This may lead to a further bifurcated society. I do think that a service-oriented economy has many, many more nooks and crannies to hide non-productive jobs, though, and that could perpetuate the “bullshit job economy” hypothesis.
    - galaxyLogic 3y ago
      Fewer people are needed to perform a specific job as we do it today. But there will always be room to improve the products and services we produce and to make them cheaper. Consider the steam-locomotive. It was a great invention but we didn't stop there now we have bullet-trains and hyperloops. There is also plenty of room at the bottom as famously noted by Feynman I think. We can make products smaller to make them easier to carry around. New cheaper price points create new demand and new markets. Also as economies improve, people will have fewer children, because they don't need them to take care of themselves at old age. So it's not like we will have too many people having nothing to do. On the contrary I think AI can be the great equalizer: Rather than having fewer people who know how to do things, we will have more people who are able to do things with the help of AI. The technology by itself will not produce a great society however. We need democracy to accomplish that. As people will have more free time they will have time to study and more and more people will demand democracy because they will understand it's the only way to avoid wars.