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That's mid-game. The end-game is that these policies result in the grid becoming uncompetitive with self-generation plus fossil-fueled backup. Everyone who is a

That's mid-game. The end-game is that these policies result in the grid becoming uncompetitive with self-generation plus fossil-fueled backup. Everyone who is able defects, leaving everyone unable holding the bag on a stranded asset.

jandrese 3y ago
I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. Doing that requires you to overbuild your generation and storage capabilities a fair bit which is expensive and wasteful. Grid tie is better in most cases.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. They are for sure... At the end of the day the state is not going to let the grid collapse as a matter of national security. Grid connections will be demanded for a certificate of occupancy, and anyone that refuses will learn about all the military equipment our police forces have been gifted.
- rnrn 3y ago
  $128 per month fixed charge for having a grid tie and not using it is also expensive. This income-graduated fixed charge surely pushes the break even point towards going off grid.
- zbrozek 3y ago
  It's not going to happen overnight. It'll be a slow corrosion. We're already starting to see the first tarnish. In my town, PG&E wanted to charge a new home (on an existing street with existing utilities) >$300k for an updated hookup (mandated to be underground), so the owner declined and went the self-generation route instead. An occupancy certificate (at least around here) requires functional utilities, but doesn't specify where they come from. Folks who argue against the self-generation route tend to assume that solar and storage has to cover 100% of usage. That's unnecessary, and specifically why I called out fossil-fueled backup. For my own usage, a 14 kilowatt PV array, 20 KWh of battery storage, and a 2 kilowatt generator with remote start (controlled automatically) lets me fully disconnect forever. I haven't yet, mostly because I have NEM 2.0 and the very-high fixed grid charge hasn't kicked in yet. Once it does, there's little reason for me to stay. My system paid itself off in <4 years of avoided costs, but I did it on the cheap by buying used hardware and doing the installation myself. When I set out on the build, I projected my payback time to be closer to 7 years. Rates went up faster than I expected and my usage also went up more than I expected once the electricity was free. I ended up getting an induction cooktop, a heat pump, and an electric car. And I totally agree with you that this approach is wasteful from the perspective of global optimization of overall resource utilization. If this were Factorio and not the real world, the self-generation approach would be dumb. But in practice, the retail cost of electricity is rising fast while solar and battery costs have plummeted. That reduction in cost has really moved the needle on the microeconomics.
  - pxmpxm 3y ago
    I'm curious where are you located - 20kwh means you are fairly dependent on sunlight, right?
    - zbrozek 3y ago
      94022 The large size of the array means that even an overcast day produces more than I usually need. The battery capacity only feels small when using the pool heat pump to warm up the hot tub, which drains one of the two 10 KWh batteries. The workaround is to preheat it during the day when there's excess solar and then only spend the energy to keep it warm. I do plan to increase the battery array size eventually, but mostly so I have enough peak power to both cook and do laundry at the same time without needing to do so during the day to avoid pulling anything from the grid.
SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
End-game implies that this is an outcome that someone is deliberately aiming for? If so, who?
ben_w 3y ago
Whenever I've run the numbers, a global power grid is much cheaper than the batteries needed for seasonal variations; the wibble factor being, as usual, politics. Batteries themselves are cheaper over their lifetimes than fossil fuels. The wibble factor for that being quite how long battery lifetime is. This is a Vimes Boots type of failure, as it means the rich can afford to spend less money than the poor. If there's a fair-priced market for mid-life batteries, and/or good financing available for packs that you want to keep around for a decade and may keep around for two decades before replacing, then this may help with batteries, but even then a grid is cheaper if you can do it (keep the batteries for mobile storage needs, which is mostly transport but also disaster relief). Global power grid is only going to happen if very large governments do it deliberately; this may well happen for the same reason China did the Belt and Road Initiative, though a suitable capacity global grid would by itself be about the same sort of scale (in both time and money) as the entire Belt and Road Initiative. Grids are also basically a requirement for cities: while one can put PV on the side of a skyscraper, this won't be suitable for every single person in every single apartment.
- zbrozek 3y ago
  Curious also that utilities are also choosing point-of-use batteries over infrastructure upgrades: https://archive.ph/OXLgE https://archive.ph/OXLgE

jandrese 3y ago

I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. Doing that requires you to overbuild your generation and storage capabilities a fair bit which is expensive and wasteful. Grid tie is better in most cases.

pixl97 3y ago
>I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. They are for sure... At the end of the day the state is not going to let the grid collapse as a matter of national security. Grid connections will be demanded for a certificate of occupancy, and anyone that refuses will learn about all the military equipment our police forces have been gifted.
rnrn 3y ago
$128 per month fixed charge for having a grid tie and not using it is also expensive. This income-graduated fixed charge surely pushes the break even point towards going off grid.
zbrozek 3y ago
It's not going to happen overnight. It'll be a slow corrosion. We're already starting to see the first tarnish. In my town, PG&E wanted to charge a new home (on an existing street with existing utilities) >$300k for an updated hookup (mandated to be underground), so the owner declined and went the self-generation route instead. An occupancy certificate (at least around here) requires functional utilities, but doesn't specify where they come from. Folks who argue against the self-generation route tend to assume that solar and storage has to cover 100% of usage. That's unnecessary, and specifically why I called out fossil-fueled backup. For my own usage, a 14 kilowatt PV array, 20 KWh of battery storage, and a 2 kilowatt generator with remote start (controlled automatically) lets me fully disconnect forever. I haven't yet, mostly because I have NEM 2.0 and the very-high fixed grid charge hasn't kicked in yet. Once it does, there's little reason for me to stay. My system paid itself off in <4 years of avoided costs, but I did it on the cheap by buying used hardware and doing the installation myself. When I set out on the build, I projected my payback time to be closer to 7 years. Rates went up faster than I expected and my usage also went up more than I expected once the electricity was free. I ended up getting an induction cooktop, a heat pump, and an electric car. And I totally agree with you that this approach is wasteful from the perspective of global optimization of overall resource utilization. If this were Factorio and not the real world, the self-generation approach would be dumb. But in practice, the retail cost of electricity is rising fast while solar and battery costs have plummeted. That reduction in cost has really moved the needle on the microeconomics.
- pxmpxm 3y ago
  I'm curious where are you located - 20kwh means you are fairly dependent on sunlight, right?
  - zbrozek 3y ago
    94022 The large size of the array means that even an overcast day produces more than I usually need. The battery capacity only feels small when using the pool heat pump to warm up the hot tub, which drains one of the two 10 KWh batteries. The workaround is to preheat it during the day when there's excess solar and then only spend the energy to keep it warm. I do plan to increase the battery array size eventually, but mostly so I have enough peak power to both cook and do laundry at the same time without needing to do so during the day to avoid pulling anything from the grid.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

End-game implies that this is an outcome that someone is deliberately aiming for? If so, who?

ben_w 3y ago

Whenever I've run the numbers, a global power grid is much cheaper than the batteries needed for seasonal variations; the wibble factor being, as usual, politics. Batteries themselves are cheaper over their lifetimes than fossil fuels. The wibble factor for that being quite how long battery lifetime is. This is a Vimes Boots type of failure, as it means the rich can afford to spend less money than the poor. If there's a fair-priced market for mid-life batteries, and/or good financing available for packs that you want to keep around for a decade and may keep around for two decades before replacing, then this may help with batteries, but even then a grid is cheaper if you can do it (keep the batteries for mobile storage needs, which is mostly transport but also disaster relief). Global power grid is only going to happen if very large governments do it deliberately; this may well happen for the same reason China did the Belt and Road Initiative, though a suitable capacity global grid would by itself be about the same sort of scale (in both time and money) as the entire Belt and Road Initiative. Grids are also basically a requirement for cities: while one can put PV on the side of a skyscraper, this won't be suitable for every single person in every single apartment.

zbrozek 3y ago
Curious also that utilities are also choosing point-of-use batteries over infrastructure upgrades: https://archive.ph/OXLgE https://archive.ph/OXLgE