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what's a Kelly in this context?

• munch117 3y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
• kqr 3y ago
  A gentler introduction: https://two-wrongs.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criterion.html https://two-wrongs.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criterion.htm...
  • PaulHoule 3y ago
    Any gambling system that works is informed by the Kelly Criterion. Here is my favorite https://mitpressbookstore.mit.edu/book/9781635617207 https://mitpressbookstore.mit.edu/book/9781635617207 which is based on the fact that the odds to win are more accurate than the odds to place and show. If you go to the track you will see sometimes that the show odds for a horse are almost as good as the win odds but you have three to win so that is a great bet. Dr. Z’s system constructs a probability estimator for place and show and based on the win odds, then computes the return on investment for the various horses and uses Kelley to decide how much to bet to maximize your returns with a low risk of going broke. Card counters in Blackjack should use Kelly but either one of: (i) winning consistently or (ii) varying your bets a lot risks getting thrown out and doing both will get you a visit from a pit boss who, if you are lucky, will suggest you play roulette or craps instead.