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A blind monkey throwing darts will beat the S&P 500 some of the time. The problem isn't that it's impossible to beat the S&P 500 (it's actually trivial), the p

• Aachen 3y ago
  The point they're making is that fewer than 30% of monkeys would still be positive after so many years if it were random chance Idk if that's true but you're not saying what percentage one would expect to see instead I also think monkeys are the wrong example here because aren't they at even odds with the index? 50% of them, assuming they take no bananas for their service and assuming they don't get to make more trades than the index does, should have beaten the index, if my currently-half-awake brain is working correctly
  • unusualmonkey 3y ago
    > The point they're making is that fewer than 30% of monkeys would still be positive after so many years if it were random chance I'm not sure that's the argument being made, but if so, it's a terrible argument. I'll let the statisticians figure out of randomly ~50% should beat index or not.