3 ms·

Great prospective study. If I'm reading correctly, using a wood-fired stove/fireplace for around a month per year for 10 years or more will increase your chance

Great prospective study. If I'm reading correctly, using a wood-fired stove/fireplace for around a month per year for 10 years or more will increase your chance of lung cancer by ~70%. To put that in perspective, smoking regularly in the same time-span increases your chance of lung cancer by over 20x.

sampo 3y ago
> smoking regularly in the same time-span increases your chance of lung cancer by over 20x. But what if you were to smoke only for the same amount as you mention using the fireplace, around a month per year?
- zemvpferreira 3y ago
  You'll have trouble finding many people to study. From the evidence I've seen, intensity of smoke exposure is much more problematic than volume. Light smokers still have 5-10x the chance of developing lung cancer than a non-smoker. That might be a good first estimate for smokers who only smoke one month out of the year.
cannonpalms 3y ago
You're conflating correlation with causation. Adding only a single factor under study (use of wood-burning fireplaces) will not necessarily produce the measured result; it could have been the result of a confluence of factors correlated with use of wood-burning stoves that you personally may lack.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Smoke is a highly likely casual factor. You don’t really win any points for saying IT COULD BE CORRELATION. This one seems like an extremely safe bet. It’s not even a huge effect size.
- zemvpferreira 3y ago
  You've clearly not read the study at all or live in a world where only perfect double-blind studies are acceptable. I wish we could all live there but sometimes you have to make-do with reality.
adolph 3y ago
What is the base rate? Increasing a very small number by 1.7x or 20x is still a small number. One might say “oh any increase is too much.” I acknowledge that and counter that there is opportunity cost to addressing topics of small effect. For example, I would expect that if unconstrained atmospheric combustion was a big problem, it would show up in occupations with high likelihood of exposure. “Occupational exposure as a firefighter” has been evaluated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and classified as “possibly carcinogenic to humans”, with strongest evidence for testicular cancer, prostate cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7254920/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7254920/
- zemvpferreira 3y ago
  Very small. We're talking 20,000 non-smoker lung cancers in the U.S. per year, of which half are attributable to radon and second-hand smoke.
ghusto 3y ago
> using a wood-fired stove/fireplace for around a month per year for 10 years or more will increase your chance of lung cancer by ~70% Really?! I just started using a wood fireplace, so this concerns me. I wish I understood things like "Cox regression" and other sciency things so I could trust this study.
- zemvpferreira 3y ago
  I wouldn't worry too much. It's a very small chance you'll develop cancer from your fireplace. But it's increasingly apparent that there's no harmless dose for smoke inhalation.

sampo 3y ago

> smoking regularly in the same time-span increases your chance of lung cancer by over 20x. But what if you were to smoke only for the same amount as you mention using the fireplace, around a month per year?

zemvpferreira 3y ago
You'll have trouble finding many people to study. From the evidence I've seen, intensity of smoke exposure is much more problematic than volume. Light smokers still have 5-10x the chance of developing lung cancer than a non-smoker. That might be a good first estimate for smokers who only smoke one month out of the year.

cannonpalms 3y ago

You're conflating correlation with causation. Adding only a single factor under study (use of wood-burning fireplaces) will not necessarily produce the measured result; it could have been the result of a confluence of factors correlated with use of wood-burning stoves that you personally may lack.

jncfhnb 3y ago
Smoke is a highly likely casual factor. You don’t really win any points for saying IT COULD BE CORRELATION. This one seems like an extremely safe bet. It’s not even a huge effect size.
zemvpferreira 3y ago
You've clearly not read the study at all or live in a world where only perfect double-blind studies are acceptable. I wish we could all live there but sometimes you have to make-do with reality.

adolph 3y ago

What is the base rate? Increasing a very small number by 1.7x or 20x is still a small number. One might say “oh any increase is too much.” I acknowledge that and counter that there is opportunity cost to addressing topics of small effect. For example, I would expect that if unconstrained atmospheric combustion was a big problem, it would show up in occupations with high likelihood of exposure. “Occupational exposure as a firefighter” has been evaluated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and classified as “possibly carcinogenic to humans”, with strongest evidence for testicular cancer, prostate cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7254920/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7254920/

zemvpferreira 3y ago
Very small. We're talking 20,000 non-smoker lung cancers in the U.S. per year, of which half are attributable to radon and second-hand smoke.

ghusto 3y ago

> using a wood-fired stove/fireplace for around a month per year for 10 years or more will increase your chance of lung cancer by ~70% Really?! I just started using a wood fireplace, so this concerns me. I wish I understood things like "Cox regression" and other sciency things so I could trust this study.

zemvpferreira 3y ago
I wouldn't worry too much. It's a very small chance you'll develop cancer from your fireplace. But it's increasingly apparent that there's no harmless dose for smoke inhalation.