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> I’m guessing they would have happily accepted a bet at 20:1 odds that my driver’s license would say “Mark Xu” on it. As soon as you present this bet, my conf
by jstanley 3y ago
> I’m guessing they would have happily accepted a bet at 20:1 odds that my driver’s license would say “Mark Xu” on it.
As soon as you present this bet, my confidence that you are actually called Mark Xu goes down so low that I would not accept it.
- zdragnar 3y agoYou're assuming that the author was the person presenting the bet, which was not what was stated. Your confidence only dropped because of an intuitive recognition that the author presenting the bet is a signal the author previously lied about his name, as both the source of truth, the claim and motive to profit all lie with the author. None of this is really relevant to the article, so I think it is safer to assume the author meant that some third party presented the bet. Following that, the author's logic makes sense.
- jstanley 3y agoYour confidence should still drop even if someone else presented the bet, because people are more likely to offer bets that they think have positive expected value to them. > the author presenting the bet is a signal the author previously lied about his name More generally: anyone presenting the bet is a signal that that person believes the author lied about his name.