8 ms·

World EV Sales Now Equal 18% of World Auto Sales

49 points by belltaco 3y ago

hunglee2 3y ago
EU competition probe should slow down EV adoption, otherwise China will take over the business, like they did with PV.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  > EU competition probe should slow down EV adoption That's a bad outcome, obviously, and the EU competition probe's intent will be more to make "a level playing field" for EU car manufacturers. To be fair, we do see EU brand electric cars locally: VWs and BMVs, even an electric Skoda; but also more of the Hyundai's, Kias, Polestars, Nissans, a lot of Tesla's (assembled in China) and of course the LEVC taxis (LEVC is owned by Geely China). And many more in the works, both from EU and other car manufacturers. But also I feel that if the EU car manufacturers held back on the EVs that we deserve while China did not, that's on them. If they made the wrong bet, to protect their incumbent ICE business, then Geely's subsidiaries can and should supply the new vehicles instead.
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    BMW in particular deserves to have its lunch entirely eaten for building compliance-car EVs long after the point where it was obvious that Tesla was going to compete directly with their ICE lineup. They did, at least, dump their CEO over it [0]. [0] https://apnews.com/general-news-cdae456e8c1948e5b7f01c602eda23dc https://apnews.com/general-news-cdae456e8c1948e5b7f01c602eda...
    - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
      There's a BMW iX parked near us sometimes. BMW deserves something like a Golden Raspberry Award, for how utterly ugly the fake plastic grill is. And I doubt that the owners need a huge SUV like that. I'm sure it never goes off the tarmac. https://www.standard.co.uk/tech/bmw-ix-review-electric-suv-b978005.html https://www.standard.co.uk/tech/bmw-ix-review-electric-suv-b...
- jabradoodle 3y ago
  What does this mean?
  - ChatGTP 3y ago
    They are being facetious
imchillyb 3y ago
Just a reminder: Power companies in the US are primarily government regulated monopolies. These are the same monopolies that duped the public into replacing incandescent bulbs with LEDs claiming they would save power. At the same time, though, these companies lobbied the regulatory bodies and stated that their projected profits were down, because consumption was 'lower than expected' and hiked our rates across the board. There is competition in the gasoline space. There is none or next to none in the power space. What do you think will happen to the costs of 'fueling' electric vehicles here in the US when 50% or more of our vehicles are electric? Time to revisit those rates!
- pxmpxm 3y ago
  The end game is pretty obvious: https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-bills-in-california-will-soon-be-based-on-income-heres-how-it-could-work/ https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-b...
  - zbrozek 3y ago
    That's mid-game. The end-game is that these policies result in the grid becoming uncompetitive with self-generation plus fossil-fueled backup. Everyone who is able defects, leaving everyone unable holding the bag on a stranded asset.
    - jandrese 3y ago
      I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. Doing that requires you to overbuild your generation and storage capabilities a fair bit which is expensive and wasteful. Grid tie is better in most cases.
      - pixl97 3y ago
        >I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. They are for sure... At the end of the day the state is not going to let the grid collapse as a matter of national security. Grid connections will be demanded for a certificate of occupancy, and anyone that refuses will learn about all the military equipment our police forces have been gifted.
1970-01-01 3y ago
The 51% tipping point is non-linear. I think a global tip will occur around 2028. Solid state batteries and NACS adoption will be the game changers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
- fbdab103 3y ago
  Barring a technological leap, I would disagree with that. EVs still have limitations vs ICE: less range, longer "fill up", cold-weather issues, and more expensive sticker price. The last one is likely going to the the thorniest problem for many who need a car now, regardless of long-term operational costs. I expect EV tax credits to dwindle into nothingness, further expanding the price disparity. I want to get an EV, but as a renter without overnight charging, I fear I would have to plan my life around how to keep my car charged. Currently, I know that I can fill the car at the spur of the moment at nearly every block in under five minutes. Edit: added cold weather
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    I think it'll exhibit more as a slowdown in ICE sales than a speedup in EV sales. The people who buy a new car every 3 years are mostly unaffected, but anybody who buys a new car planning on keeping it for 5 - 10+ years is likely to be questioning their decision. Choosing between EV and ICE is hard, there's lots of FUD on both sides, so the easiest decision is not to choose, to keep their current vehicle longer, to buy used instead of new, et cetera.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    The points are valid, but I don't think this needs much of a technological leap. The sticker price is dominated by the battery prices, which appear to be currently limited by resource supply rather by the energy requirements of turning rocks into batteries; the range follows from the battery price; cold weather issues that I'm aware of are also fixed by a bigger battery pack. That leaves the fill-up time. You would be right to say that reducing this to 5 minutes would need a technological leap, but I don't think it's truly necessary. First: it is easy to imagine a high-level government requirement that one-in-n street lights is retrofitted with a charging port for electric vehicles[0]. Second: PV cells are also getting cheaper, to the point that many EV makers are just slapping them on as afterthoughts. When this gets raised, the conversation diverges into two groups, those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is terrible" and those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is 80% of the average actual usage of a vehicle so this is good". In either case, trickle-charging even while you're driving will reduce both the degree to which you as a driver need the charging infrastructure and also the cost to the municipality of installing the kind of charging infrastructure I've described. This doesn't reduce fill-up times, for which we would still need to think in terms of 30 minute breaks. This would definitely change the character of European petrol stations… though from what I remember of US gasoline stations on that one road trip I've been on from Davis CA to Salt Lake City, perhaps less so the American ones. [0] or something along similar lines if my assumption that all residential areas have street lights is false
ycombinatornews 3y ago
Misleading article title. >In the end, plugins represented 18% share of the overall auto market (with a 13% BEV share alone). Regardless, this is a happy trend!
- sebzim4500 3y ago
  What is misleading? I'm struggling to understand how your quote contradicts the headline.
  - arghwhat 3y ago
    The headline includes plugin hybrids, which is an ICE vehicle unless driven purely from battery. Grouping then with BEVs can be misleading depending on what the data is used for.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      Mm, indeed. Given the usual intention of "how green are we?", I would suggest counting them as 80% of a "real" EV, for the same reason that I give when the discussion turns to putting PV cells physically on a car[0]: most driving is short trips where this is fine, and the longer trips, while they absolutely exist, are less common. [0] though with different underlying causes that means this is coincidentally 80% and they may diverge
      - rssoconnor 3y ago
        For the record I use about 1.5 L/100km in my Prius Prime. I used to get about 5 L/100km on my Prius. For my Corolla before that, I'd guess it was about 8 L/100km. That said, it is clear to me that the fuel economy one will get with the Prius Prime will depend heavily on the relative frequency of the various trips one takes.
        arghwhat 3y ago
        In comparison, a modern eco VW UP! is around 2.8L/100km in mixed driving, so 1.5 is about a 2x improvement over a good ICE. My old diesel polo does around 4L/100km, so 2.5x for that one. Not bad, definitely a hell of a lot better than the early Prius, but definitely nowhere near BEV efficiencies. I feel like a small-battery BEV is a better proposition for many, especially as pure BEVs have significantly better pure-electric drive-train efficiency than plugins, and less maintenance.
darknavi 3y ago
Environmental concerns aside, EVs are just better when you can charge at home: - Fill up without going to a gas station that shoves ads down your throat, might skim you credit card, and you may need to wait in line for (Costco near me) - Pre-condition your car in the garage without fear of murdering someone - Electricity to juice up a car is often much cheaper than the price of gas for an ICE car There are of course down sides in some scenarios, but I will never go back from EVs. Even road tripping in our Tesla Model Y is a blast.
- PaulKeeble 3y ago
  They really are amazing for 99% of the journeys people do. Home to work and weekend trips to other places and back to home. If out and back is all within the range of the car then you can charge at home cheaply over night and you never go to a charging station ever. For a lot of people the only time they will use a charging station is when they are driving far in excess of their normal day and it will force a 30 minute break after 3 hours of solid driving. People also expect that they will be full charging rapidly but where you are going likely has cheaper trickle overnight charging than the rapid charger so you fill up as little as you need only. The other possibility is you avoid the charge all together by using slower roads which avoids the waiting at the charger and uses less power per mile and often is a similar time for something that is nearly within range. Once people get used to this its got a lot of benefits most of the time and people love their EVs because they do free them from petrol station trips on a regular basis.

49 points by belltaco 3y ago

hunglee2 3y ago

EU competition probe should slow down EV adoption, otherwise China will take over the business, like they did with PV.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> EU competition probe should slow down EV adoption That's a bad outcome, obviously, and the EU competition probe's intent will be more to make "a level playing field" for EU car manufacturers. To be fair, we do see EU brand electric cars locally: VWs and BMVs, even an electric Skoda; but also more of the Hyundai's, Kias, Polestars, Nissans, a lot of Tesla's (assembled in China) and of course the LEVC taxis (LEVC is owned by Geely China). And many more in the works, both from EU and other car manufacturers. But also I feel that if the EU car manufacturers held back on the EVs that we deserve while China did not, that's on them. If they made the wrong bet, to protect their incumbent ICE business, then Geely's subsidiaries can and should supply the new vehicles instead.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  BMW in particular deserves to have its lunch entirely eaten for building compliance-car EVs long after the point where it was obvious that Tesla was going to compete directly with their ICE lineup. They did, at least, dump their CEO over it [0]. [0] https://apnews.com/general-news-cdae456e8c1948e5b7f01c602eda23dc https://apnews.com/general-news-cdae456e8c1948e5b7f01c602eda...
  - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
    There's a BMW iX parked near us sometimes. BMW deserves something like a Golden Raspberry Award, for how utterly ugly the fake plastic grill is. And I doubt that the owners need a huge SUV like that. I'm sure it never goes off the tarmac. https://www.standard.co.uk/tech/bmw-ix-review-electric-suv-b978005.html https://www.standard.co.uk/tech/bmw-ix-review-electric-suv-b...
jabradoodle 3y ago
What does this mean?
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  They are being facetious

imchillyb 3y ago

Just a reminder: Power companies in the US are primarily government regulated monopolies. These are the same monopolies that duped the public into replacing incandescent bulbs with LEDs claiming they would save power. At the same time, though, these companies lobbied the regulatory bodies and stated that their projected profits were down, because consumption was 'lower than expected' and hiked our rates across the board. There is competition in the gasoline space. There is none or next to none in the power space. What do you think will happen to the costs of 'fueling' electric vehicles here in the US when 50% or more of our vehicles are electric? Time to revisit those rates!

pxmpxm 3y ago
The end game is pretty obvious: https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-bills-in-california-will-soon-be-based-on-income-heres-how-it-could-work/ https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/electricity-b...
- zbrozek 3y ago
  That's mid-game. The end-game is that these policies result in the grid becoming uncompetitive with self-generation plus fossil-fueled backup. Everyone who is able defects, leaving everyone unable holding the bag on a stranded asset.
  - jandrese 3y ago
    I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. Doing that requires you to overbuild your generation and storage capabilities a fair bit which is expensive and wasteful. Grid tie is better in most cases.
    - pixl97 3y ago
      >I think you are overestimating the number of people who will fully go off grid. They are for sure... At the end of the day the state is not going to let the grid collapse as a matter of national security. Grid connections will be demanded for a certificate of occupancy, and anyone that refuses will learn about all the military equipment our police forces have been gifted.

1970-01-01 3y ago

The 51% tipping point is non-linear. I think a global tip will occur around 2028. Solid state batteries and NACS adoption will be the game changers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

fbdab103 3y ago
Barring a technological leap, I would disagree with that. EVs still have limitations vs ICE: less range, longer "fill up", cold-weather issues, and more expensive sticker price. The last one is likely going to the the thorniest problem for many who need a car now, regardless of long-term operational costs. I expect EV tax credits to dwindle into nothingness, further expanding the price disparity. I want to get an EV, but as a renter without overnight charging, I fear I would have to plan my life around how to keep my car charged. Currently, I know that I can fill the car at the spur of the moment at nearly every block in under five minutes. Edit: added cold weather
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  I think it'll exhibit more as a slowdown in ICE sales than a speedup in EV sales. The people who buy a new car every 3 years are mostly unaffected, but anybody who buys a new car planning on keeping it for 5 - 10+ years is likely to be questioning their decision. Choosing between EV and ICE is hard, there's lots of FUD on both sides, so the easiest decision is not to choose, to keep their current vehicle longer, to buy used instead of new, et cetera.
- ben_w 3y ago
  The points are valid, but I don't think this needs much of a technological leap. The sticker price is dominated by the battery prices, which appear to be currently limited by resource supply rather by the energy requirements of turning rocks into batteries; the range follows from the battery price; cold weather issues that I'm aware of are also fixed by a bigger battery pack. That leaves the fill-up time. You would be right to say that reducing this to 5 minutes would need a technological leap, but I don't think it's truly necessary. First: it is easy to imagine a high-level government requirement that one-in-n street lights is retrofitted with a charging port for electric vehicles[0]. Second: PV cells are also getting cheaper, to the point that many EV makers are just slapping them on as afterthoughts. When this gets raised, the conversation diverges into two groups, those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is terrible" and those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is 80% of the average actual usage of a vehicle so this is good". In either case, trickle-charging even while you're driving will reduce both the degree to which you as a driver need the charging infrastructure and also the cost to the municipality of installing the kind of charging infrastructure I've described. This doesn't reduce fill-up times, for which we would still need to think in terms of 30 minute breaks. This would definitely change the character of European petrol stations… though from what I remember of US gasoline stations on that one road trip I've been on from Davis CA to Salt Lake City, perhaps less so the American ones. [0] or something along similar lines if my assumption that all residential areas have street lights is false

ycombinatornews 3y ago

Misleading article title. >In the end, plugins represented 18% share of the overall auto market (with a 13% BEV share alone). Regardless, this is a happy trend!

sebzim4500 3y ago
What is misleading? I'm struggling to understand how your quote contradicts the headline.
- arghwhat 3y ago
  The headline includes plugin hybrids, which is an ICE vehicle unless driven purely from battery. Grouping then with BEVs can be misleading depending on what the data is used for.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Mm, indeed. Given the usual intention of "how green are we?", I would suggest counting them as 80% of a "real" EV, for the same reason that I give when the discussion turns to putting PV cells physically on a car[0]: most driving is short trips where this is fine, and the longer trips, while they absolutely exist, are less common. [0] though with different underlying causes that means this is coincidentally 80% and they may diverge
    - rssoconnor 3y ago
      For the record I use about 1.5 L/100km in my Prius Prime. I used to get about 5 L/100km on my Prius. For my Corolla before that, I'd guess it was about 8 L/100km. That said, it is clear to me that the fuel economy one will get with the Prius Prime will depend heavily on the relative frequency of the various trips one takes.
      - arghwhat 3y ago
        In comparison, a modern eco VW UP! is around 2.8L/100km in mixed driving, so 1.5 is about a 2x improvement over a good ICE. My old diesel polo does around 4L/100km, so 2.5x for that one. Not bad, definitely a hell of a lot better than the early Prius, but definitely nowhere near BEV efficiencies. I feel like a small-battery BEV is a better proposition for many, especially as pure BEVs have significantly better pure-electric drive-train efficiency than plugins, and less maintenance.

darknavi 3y ago

Environmental concerns aside, EVs are just better when you can charge at home: - Fill up without going to a gas station that shoves ads down your throat, might skim you credit card, and you may need to wait in line for (Costco near me) - Pre-condition your car in the garage without fear of murdering someone - Electricity to juice up a car is often much cheaper than the price of gas for an ICE car There are of course down sides in some scenarios, but I will never go back from EVs. Even road tripping in our Tesla Model Y is a blast.

PaulKeeble 3y ago
They really are amazing for 99% of the journeys people do. Home to work and weekend trips to other places and back to home. If out and back is all within the range of the car then you can charge at home cheaply over night and you never go to a charging station ever. For a lot of people the only time they will use a charging station is when they are driving far in excess of their normal day and it will force a 30 minute break after 3 hours of solid driving. People also expect that they will be full charging rapidly but where you are going likely has cheaper trickle overnight charging than the rapid charger so you fill up as little as you need only. The other possibility is you avoid the charge all together by using slower roads which avoids the waiting at the charger and uses less power per mile and often is a similar time for something that is nearly within range. Once people get used to this its got a lot of benefits most of the time and people love their EVs because they do free them from petrol station trips on a regular basis.