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Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further c

by ajuc 3y ago

Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further conquest higher and would probably start something in Taiwan or Baltic states). Russia issued a statement just before 2022 invasion that demanded NATO back off from Baltic States, Poland, etc. If Ukraine fell quickly they could think they can force this by small scale provocations. If NATO really backed off - Russia would invade these countries soon after that. A LOT of people are now safe because of Ukrainians (and NATO, and EU). Millions of them. Returning to your question - WW3 is unlikely, because NATO wins 10 times out of 10. The best China and Russia can count on is stalemate with nuclear exchange. But what's the point of that from their POV?

mytailorisrich 3y ago
The fact that Russia's invasion of Ukraine mostly failed informs about the strength of Russia's military but says nothing about China's. If China is drawing conclusions they must be based on the West's reaction to the invasion, not on Russia's performance. China has been working on these scenarios well before Russia invaded Ukraine because, well, it is obvious that the West controls most of the world's economic and financial infrastructure. For instance, payments within China are now almost 100% Alipay and Wechatpay, which means they have completely decoupled and e.g. US networks like Visa and Mastercard are irrelevant.
- ajuc 3y ago
  China is using russian equipment (or equipment based on reverse-engineered russian equipment), russian tactics, and is training with Russia. Before 2022 it was generally agreed that in their joint exercises russian army looked better. China has all the corruption problems Russia has, even less oversight and transparency, and fought no competetive wars in which it could be tested. I expect much worse performance from them if they ever go to a real war. As for decoupling economy - Russia is energy exporter. China is importing resources and energy and selling products to the west. They are much more coupled with the west than Russia, no matter who services the transactions.
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East. It is also the second largest economy in the world with the second largest population, which means they can produce mountains of military equipment if needed, which Russia's small economy cannot. China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. There is no comparison with Russia and, if anything Ukraine shows China the mistakes no to make.
    - ajuc 3y ago
      > China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East They already do. But they won't have anywhere to sell their products. Most of their economy gone just like that. > China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. Nope. For west decoupling means higher inflation but lower unemployment and faster growth. You win more than you lose. For China it means economic decline, unemployment, budget deficits. Catastrophe from all POV. BTW it's already happening to some degree, just slowly - old factories are still operating in China, but new ones are built near USA/EU - in Mexico, Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.
      - mytailorisrich 3y ago
        What's happening is that the West sees that they are dangerously dependent on China, which as world's second largest economy is also diversifying outside of Western countries. To some extent I think China would be willing to pay, and accept, a higher economic price than the West as long as Taiwan was seized. That's perhaps the same calculation Russia did with Ukraine, though, so they need to give a very hard look and consideration to this 'as long as', at this point it's not a given. The reason is that no-one cares about Taiwan in the West, it is a pawn against China. But for the Chinese it is very personal (which is not really the case for Russian in Ukraine, btw). In any case, that wouldn't unleash WWIII.
        ajuc 3y ago
        Russia exports fuel which they take from the ground. China makes goods from things they import using western know-how and sell them back to the west. Everybody needs fuel. Rich countries need iphones. When you are isolated you can still pump oil. You can't make iphones. These are polar opposites when it comes to dependency on the west. > The reason is that no-one cares about Taiwan in the West, it is a pawn against China. I wonder what would be your prediction about the West caring about Ukraine in 2021 :) If anything - even fewer people cared about it than about Taiwan. Yet here we are. There's 2 things so called "realists" and "geopoliticians" consistently get wrong. The first is that the only things that matter are economies, armies, nukes, and geography. These people couldn't predict USSR falling, because they thought every culture and every system is the same and values are cosmetic. Meanwhile people like Giedroyć proposed a strategy for Poland after "inevitable USSR collapse and creation of independent Ukraine and Belarus" in 60s already. Look it up - google for "Giedroyć doctrine" and "Kultura paryska". The second thing "realists" consistently get wrong is assuming democracies are weak and fickle and authocracies are strong and resilient. It's an easy mistake to make, because democracies are transparent about their weaknesses and authocracies hide them. But that's exactly why it's a mistake. Democracies are actually surprisingly bloodthirsty once you persuade people something is worth fighting for. Much easier to change the mind of the leader than to change the minds of millions of people. And all wars are ultimately about changing somebody's minds.
- user_7832 3y ago
  > For instance, payments within China are now almost 100% Alipay and Wechatpay, which means they have completely decoupled and e.g. US networks like Visa and Mastercard are irrelevant. They may have done these but if I’m not mistaken they yuan is still pegged to the US dollar.
galfarragem 3y ago
> A LOT of people are now safe because of Ukrainians (and NATO, and EU). Millions of them. An instrumental narrative used by the media... Do you really believe that? The rest of your comment is also surreal: you are overestimating Russia and underestimating China. The problem of the West is that all of our leaders are weak. Weak leaders precipitate wars.
- MrMan 3y ago
  [dead]
- ajuc 3y ago
  > you are overestimating Russia and underestimating China 2 years ago Russia was called 2nd army of the world. China wasn't the first. > The problem of the West is that all of our leaders are weak. Weak leaders precipitate wars. These general statements are generally false.
  - galfarragem 3y ago
    Eastern Europeans are biased - scars are still there - but fear makes the wolf bigger than it really is. > These general statements are generally false. What about Trump or even Merkel? Biden and Von Der Leyen are a clear downgrade that may bring us a stupid war.
    - ajuc 3y ago
      > Eastern Europeans are biased We were called biased for 30 years. We were right. Still biased tho :) If you are called biased when you're proven right by the people who were wrong - it's not you who is biased. > Trump and Merkel. Both are former leaders.
Spooky23 3y ago
The Russians and their friends are playing a different game. Russian soldiers are like cattle heading to slaughter against NATO equipment and training. But if long running influence operations seem to be the area where Russia in particular owns the board.
Trent_11011 3y ago
[flagged]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

by ajuc 3y ago

mytailorisrich 3y ago

The fact that Russia's invasion of Ukraine mostly failed informs about the strength of Russia's military but says nothing about China's. If China is drawing conclusions they must be based on the West's reaction to the invasion, not on Russia's performance. China has been working on these scenarios well before Russia invaded Ukraine because, well, it is obvious that the West controls most of the world's economic and financial infrastructure. For instance, payments within China are now almost 100% Alipay and Wechatpay, which means they have completely decoupled and e.g. US networks like Visa and Mastercard are irrelevant.

ajuc 3y ago
China is using russian equipment (or equipment based on reverse-engineered russian equipment), russian tactics, and is training with Russia. Before 2022 it was generally agreed that in their joint exercises russian army looked better. China has all the corruption problems Russia has, even less oversight and transparency, and fought no competetive wars in which it could be tested. I expect much worse performance from them if they ever go to a real war. As for decoupling economy - Russia is energy exporter. China is importing resources and energy and selling products to the west. They are much more coupled with the west than Russia, no matter who services the transactions.
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East. It is also the second largest economy in the world with the second largest population, which means they can produce mountains of military equipment if needed, which Russia's small economy cannot. China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. There is no comparison with Russia and, if anything Ukraine shows China the mistakes no to make.
  - ajuc 3y ago
    > China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East They already do. But they won't have anywhere to sell their products. Most of their economy gone just like that. > China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. Nope. For west decoupling means higher inflation but lower unemployment and faster growth. You win more than you lose. For China it means economic decline, unemployment, budget deficits. Catastrophe from all POV. BTW it's already happening to some degree, just slowly - old factories are still operating in China, but new ones are built near USA/EU - in Mexico, Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.
    - mytailorisrich 3y ago
      What's happening is that the West sees that they are dangerously dependent on China, which as world's second largest economy is also diversifying outside of Western countries. To some extent I think China would be willing to pay, and accept, a higher economic price than the West as long as Taiwan was seized. That's perhaps the same calculation Russia did with Ukraine, though, so they need to give a very hard look and consideration to this 'as long as', at this point it's not a given. The reason is that no-one cares about Taiwan in the West, it is a pawn against China. But for the Chinese it is very personal (which is not really the case for Russian in Ukraine, btw). In any case, that wouldn't unleash WWIII.
      - ajuc 3y ago
        Russia exports fuel which they take from the ground. China makes goods from things they import using western know-how and sell them back to the west. Everybody needs fuel. Rich countries need iphones. When you are isolated you can still pump oil. You can't make iphones. These are polar opposites when it comes to dependency on the west. > The reason is that no-one cares about Taiwan in the West, it is a pawn against China. I wonder what would be your prediction about the West caring about Ukraine in 2021 :) If anything - even fewer people cared about it than about Taiwan. Yet here we are. There's 2 things so called "realists" and "geopoliticians" consistently get wrong. The first is that the only things that matter are economies, armies, nukes, and geography. These people couldn't predict USSR falling, because they thought every culture and every system is the same and values are cosmetic. Meanwhile people like Giedroyć proposed a strategy for Poland after "inevitable USSR collapse and creation of independent Ukraine and Belarus" in 60s already. Look it up - google for "Giedroyć doctrine" and "Kultura paryska". The second thing "realists" consistently get wrong is assuming democracies are weak and fickle and authocracies are strong and resilient. It's an easy mistake to make, because democracies are transparent about their weaknesses and authocracies hide them. But that's exactly why it's a mistake. Democracies are actually surprisingly bloodthirsty once you persuade people something is worth fighting for. Much easier to change the mind of the leader than to change the minds of millions of people. And all wars are ultimately about changing somebody's minds.
user_7832 3y ago
> For instance, payments within China are now almost 100% Alipay and Wechatpay, which means they have completely decoupled and e.g. US networks like Visa and Mastercard are irrelevant. They may have done these but if I’m not mistaken they yuan is still pegged to the US dollar.

galfarragem 3y ago

> A LOT of people are now safe because of Ukrainians (and NATO, and EU). Millions of them. An instrumental narrative used by the media... Do you really believe that? The rest of your comment is also surreal: you are overestimating Russia and underestimating China. The problem of the West is that all of our leaders are weak. Weak leaders precipitate wars.

MrMan 3y ago
[dead]
ajuc 3y ago
> you are overestimating Russia and underestimating China 2 years ago Russia was called 2nd army of the world. China wasn't the first. > The problem of the West is that all of our leaders are weak. Weak leaders precipitate wars. These general statements are generally false.
- galfarragem 3y ago
  Eastern Europeans are biased - scars are still there - but fear makes the wolf bigger than it really is. > These general statements are generally false. What about Trump or even Merkel? Biden and Von Der Leyen are a clear downgrade that may bring us a stupid war.
  - ajuc 3y ago
    > Eastern Europeans are biased We were called biased for 30 years. We were right. Still biased tho :) If you are called biased when you're proven right by the people who were wrong - it's not you who is biased. > Trump and Merkel. Both are former leaders.

Spooky23 3y ago

The Russians and their friends are playing a different game. Russian soldiers are like cattle heading to slaughter against NATO equipment and training. But if long running influence operations seem to be the area where Russia in particular owns the board.

Trent_11011 3y ago

[flagged]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]