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To time the market, you need visibility into it down fine intervals and tools not available to anyone without a 3 digit investment. Common tools obfuscate data.
by dzink 3y ago
To time the market, you need visibility into it down fine intervals and tools not available to anyone without a 3 digit investment. Common tools obfuscate data. A typical movement of the market that is obvious on a detailed chart, is explained haphazardly by likely automated financial press. The jobs data was strong on Friday, leading to likelihood of higher interest rates for longer, yet the market jumped up that day? Was that a Dead cat bounce? Short-sellers exiting their positions before a long weekend? A move to drum up retail investor interest in a last ditch effort before the S&P crosses the 4200 point of no return? The beginning of the next bull market?
The retail investor software is designed to take advantage of retail investors left and right. Placing trades is error prone. The spreads can be ridiculous (0.5% at 9:30am). the market zigzags consistently so no stop loss is left un-triggered before a bounce. These conditions are currently leading to a world of take-profit trading. Timing works if you pay attention to it all the time, but most don’t have the time for that. Your retailer software won’t warn you when you are losing profits gained in the past year. That’s why long term investors become complacent after a long stretch of growth and stop paying attention. With bots trading increasingly more and interest rates remaining higher, the market will not look the same as it did since 2010 AT ALL and the data from before then is only a usable in detail to those who can pay. Once retail investors have seen the lines go down. the bounce back won’t be as linear as 2020 or this spring. Treasuries require a lot less sweat.