3 ms·
This has been my experience too, I missed out more by being sidlined during good times than I saved. Personally as an engineering mindset person I am good at id
by porknubbins 3y ago
This has been my experience too, I missed out more by being sidlined during good times than I saved. Personally as an engineering mindset person I am good at identifying likely failure modes of companies (i.e. reality) but rarely anticipate how much things will go up during good times which is more of a social phenomenon (hype).
- henry2023 3y agoIt seems like identifying failure modes could work if you could model the likelihood of the company going bankrupt in a certain amount of time because even if the enterprise is working on failure mode, public markets have been popularity contests for a really long time.
- porknubbins 3y agoSure, Michael Burry is a famous example of it working. But as someone not that good or dedicated its easier to profit on the up side.
- tomatocracy 3y agoUnderstanding potential failure modes for companies is a much more important part of credit investing (this is what I do for a living these days, though I've done equity investing as well). Unfortunately a very large part of the credit universe is very difficult to access if you're a non-professional investor though.