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One problem with this article, and many others of its ilk, is that they somewhat underestimate the enormous complexity of this thing we call "life". Here's an i
by gwerbret 3y ago
One problem with this article, and many others of its ilk, is that they somewhat underestimate the enormous complexity of this thing we call "life". Here's an incomplete list of what the most primitive single-celled lifeform has to do:
-- create some way of sustainably separating "self" from its environment, so that all the components of downstream steps don't diffuse away. The separating material, which could be a cell wall or cell membrane, also has to allow selective exchange of raw materials in and out of the cell, and provide protection against damage to the cell.
-- design and build a chemical template (DNA/RNA in our case) which allows it to reproducibly recreate itself and all its components.
-- design the molecular machinery which builds that chemical template, and which is also responsible for reading and interpreting the template, regulating its use, and providing error correction. Instructions for creating machinery that makes the template are encoded in the template.
-- design the molecular machinery (enzymes and other proteins) that builds molecular machines, using a design language encoded in the chemical template.
-- establish a chemistry program that takes in raw materials from the environment, and converts it to energy, building blocks for the machinery and template, and allows for repair, defense, and other tasks.
-- establish and implement reliable reproductive (data backup) framework, minimally involving the creation of a copy of the chemical template, and often copying and spinning off a second, complete cell.
These are the elements of basic, independent (i.e. non -parasitic) life. As far as we can tell, the core elements (information stored in DNA/RNA encoding proteins as molecular machines) of this life solution emerged fairly early in this planet's 4.5 billion-year existence, and every other organism since then has simply iterated on the same solution -- no other competing solutions exist to our knowledge.
It thus makes sense to account for this complexity when we calculate the odds of finding life in the universe. In my opinion, the Fermi paradox is nonsense.
- beeforpork 3y agoYes, that! And on top of this complexity of life, it took like 4 billion years on earth (that's roughly 1/3 of the age of the universe) from RNA/DNA to intelligent life forms that can talk about this on the internet. And during this time, no catastrophic global event has happened to undo all that development. Comparing Earth to other planets in our solar system (we cannot really compare to other systems, obviously), Earth is really lucky that there was no such catastrophic event. So many factors are important for this -- our sun is just the right size (not too harsh UV radiation (bad for molecules to be stable), not too small to make our orbit so small that rotation would stop (blowing away the atmosphere)). Our moon is unusally large for a planet like ours, yet it was vital for stabilising the Earth's axis (stable axis == stable weather) and slow down its rotation. And for the moon to emerge, a very nearly fatal impact from another body of the right mass (Mars sized) needed to happen at the right time (very early). At the right speed and the right angle. The availability of water and oxygen at the right times in Earth history where also quite a big unlikelyhood. And it goes on and on: Earth is unimaginably lucky. Taken all this together, I doubt that anyone could multiply the probability of life on a planet with the amount of planets in the Milky Way (or the universe) we think would be Earth candidates, and claim to have a sensible number. The later is an unimaginably large number, but the first is an unimaginably small number and also a very unknown number. So: we just don't know how often life happens. And also, detection is not trivial: it is not that easy to see other planets (they are far away), or alien space probes (they are small, space is large), other radio waves (they are weak), or any other signs of intelligent life.