4 ms·

> that technological civilisations remain unchanged over geologic time spans Actually I think the opposite assumption, that civilization radically changes over

> that technological civilisations remain unchanged over geologic time spans Actually I think the opposite assumption, that civilization radically changes over time, is an argument for it. Future humanity is not people on (sublight) space boats touring the stars like Star Trek, its seemingly some kind of unfathomable transcendent intelligence. Maybe its not even recognized as "civilization" by our standards. And why would such an intelligence not explore its environment? What's the likelihood, if there are many such intelligences, that essentially all of these intelligences choose to remain static, stagnant and stealthy instead of making their presence known within their light horizon?

qayxc 3y ago
Well, there are a couple of problems with that. The god-like alien hypothesis is basically useless, as they would have no interest in us and would be undetectable anyway. The exploring civilisation falls into a similar category: if they are super advanced, they wouldn't be seen unless they want to. So no data point to be had there either. If they're just advanced enough to cross the vastness of interstellar space, they'd take hundreds or thousands of years to get around, so very little chance for them to randomly bump into us at this specific point in time. "Making your presence known" is also on shaky grounds, since it only takes one. By that I mean it only takes one locust-like civilisation that matches the "Grabby Aliens"-hypothesis to conquer the known universe within just a few billion years. This would imply, that it'd be highly likely that we ourselves would be part of- or descended from this super-civilisation. Again, the facts don't support that. OTOH, it also only takes one civilisation that wants to prevent such scenario. They don't even have to be around anymore. All it takes is seeding the universe with self-replicating "sentinels" that simply sit dormant around M-, K-, and G-type stars and watch. Once they detect a space-faring civilisation popping up, they'd being their assessment. If the AI suspects a "Grabby-Aliens"-scenario, it's time for Exterminatus or some other, more subtle means of preventing the scenario from materialising. So subtle in fact, that the affected civilisation might not even be aware of it. In fact, it could happen to us right now and we'd be none the wiser - ever wondered why it haven't made it back to the Moon in over 50 years ;) The fun part about this hypothesis is that it's just another scenario that we wouldn't be able to detect or rule out: GRBs happen all the time, good thing Earth hasn't been in the way of a nearby one... Or imagine another Carrington Event, only 50x stronger, blasting us back into the stone-age - just another otherwise oddly calm G-type star having a little hiccup; nothing unusual our extra-terrestrial neighbours would think... Basically the number of scenarios that would match our observations so far while still allowing for a universe teeming with technological civilisations, outnumbers any hypothesis that would truly present a "paradox" IMO. (just an opinion, not a fact, I could be very wrong on this)

qayxc 3y ago

Well, there are a couple of problems with that. The god-like alien hypothesis is basically useless, as they would have no interest in us and would be undetectable anyway. The exploring civilisation falls into a similar category: if they are super advanced, they wouldn't be seen unless they want to. So no data point to be had there either. If they're just advanced enough to cross the vastness of interstellar space, they'd take hundreds or thousands of years to get around, so very little chance for them to randomly bump into us at this specific point in time. "Making your presence known" is also on shaky grounds, since it only takes one. By that I mean it only takes one locust-like civilisation that matches the "Grabby Aliens"-hypothesis to conquer the known universe within just a few billion years. This would imply, that it'd be highly likely that we ourselves would be part of- or descended from this super-civilisation. Again, the facts don't support that. OTOH, it also only takes one civilisation that wants to prevent such scenario. They don't even have to be around anymore. All it takes is seeding the universe with self-replicating "sentinels" that simply sit dormant around M-, K-, and G-type stars and watch. Once they detect a space-faring civilisation popping up, they'd being their assessment. If the AI suspects a "Grabby-Aliens"-scenario, it's time for Exterminatus or some other, more subtle means of preventing the scenario from materialising. So subtle in fact, that the affected civilisation might not even be aware of it. In fact, it could happen to us right now and we'd be none the wiser - ever wondered why it haven't made it back to the Moon in over 50 years ;) The fun part about this hypothesis is that it's just another scenario that we wouldn't be able to detect or rule out: GRBs happen all the time, good thing Earth hasn't been in the way of a nearby one... Or imagine another Carrington Event, only 50x stronger, blasting us back into the stone-age - just another otherwise oddly calm G-type star having a little hiccup; nothing unusual our extra-terrestrial neighbours would think... Basically the number of scenarios that would match our observations so far while still allowing for a universe teeming with technological civilisations, outnumbers any hypothesis that would truly present a "paradox" IMO. (just an opinion, not a fact, I could be very wrong on this)