My comment about 5% 30 year Treasury bonds being more attractive than mid tier office buildings financed at 8% was referring to someone making a current investm

My comment about 5% 30 year Treasury bonds being more attractive than mid tier office buildings financed at 8% was referring to someone making a current investment decision. The refinancing of $1.5T in CRE before 2025 is going to be a bloodbath for regional banks, hopefully we don’t have multiple SVB situations as a result. For anyone unfamiliar with CRE financing, a typical loan might have a term of 5-10 years and an amortization schedule of 20-30 years. A lot of loans that were taken out when the prime rate was 0-2% are now going to have to be refinanced when the prime rate is 5.25% and occupancy rates have dropped, meaning the building is worth less than it was previously and also the monthly payments are higher as a result of the higher interest rates. Lots of building owners are going to walk away and the banks will have to repossess and resell a bunch of CRE.