If the AI hype persists the CUDA moat will be less relevant in ~2 yrs. Historically HPC was simply not sufficiently interesting (in commercial sense) for peopl

If the AI hype persists the CUDA moat will be less relevant in ~2 yrs. Historically HPC was simply not sufficiently interesting (in commercial sense) for people to throw serious resources in the direction of making it a mass market capability. NVIDIA first capitalized on the niche crypto industry (which faded) and was then well positioned to jump into the AI hype. The question is how much of the hype will become real business. The critical factor for the post-CUDA world is not any circumstantial moat but who will be making money servicing stable, long term computing needs. I.e., who will be buying this hardware not with speculative hot money but with cashflow from clients that regularly use and pay for a HPC-type application. These actors will be the long term buyers of commercially relevant HPC and they will have quite a bit of influence on this market.