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> FWIW, I imagine in 4-5 years this “battle” will pretty much already be decided wrt chipmaking in China. If I'm understanding you correctly... It's not that

> FWIW, I imagine in 4-5 years this “battle” will pretty much already be decided wrt chipmaking in China. If I'm understanding you correctly... It's not that easy for China (or the US) to spin up their own fabs, particularly ones that compete to those in Taiwan. Even with some expertise and fat pockets, you might not get the same results. It's a lot of trial and error and improving yield for small processes to the point where it's economical. On top of that, the cutting edge is already developing in Taiwan (i.e. next gen fabs). That's why Taiwan is such a coveted area for the PRC (and the US) -- besides the traditional political issues regarding their exodus from mainland China.

igravious 3y ago
“China is expected to outnumber all other regions in new chip manufacturing facilities, with 20 supporting mature technologies planned.” https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press-releases/semi-press-releases/global-chip-industry-projected-to-invest-more-than-%24500-billion-in-new-factories-by-2024-semi-reports https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press-releases/semi-press... Why is it not easy for China to spin up their own fabs? They have a strategic plan / industrial policy[1]. They have the industrial base[2][3]. They have pumping out engineering graduates[3]. † [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 [2] “From 1900 to 1999, the US produced 4.2 billion tonnes of cement. It consumed 4.4 billion tonnes. China produced 2.4 billion tonnes in 2020, and 2.5 billion tonnes in 2021. This means it produced 4.9 billion tonnes in these two years.” (China produced more cement in two years than the US did in the whole 20th century) https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-us-cement https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-us-cement [3] “China is by far the world’s largest silicon producer, with a production volume estimated at six million metric tons in 2022. The total production volume of silicon worldwide was an estimated 8.8 million metric tons that year.” https://www.statista.com/statistics/1260896/china-silicon-production/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1260896/china-silicon-pr... [4] “China awarded 1.38 million engineering bachelor’s degrees in 2020. The comparable American number is 197,000 (144,000 in engineering and 54,000 in computer science), or just one-seventh of China’s total.” https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ † You know the way we have this mental model in our heads for the size of the US economy post WWII versus the rest of the world?, we're going to have to update our mental model of the size of China's economy today versus the rest of the world.
- throw9away6 3y ago
  Yeah but quantity has always been chinas strength. Where they have historically struggled is quality. If they can bring the quality up to acceptable levels then those numbers would be truly impressive. That’s what they are striving for
  - promptdaddy 3y ago
    Quality of what compared to who? Tiktok is winning.
    - sneak 3y ago
      As is the iPhone. Chinese manufacturing is unparalleled. Comac is also quite instructive.
      - throw9away6 3y ago
        Comac is the opposite of quality and the iPhone quality is so high because Apple is able to set and hold their high western qa standards. A domestic industry would have to struggle with the supply can taking shortcuts at every level and that’s much harder of a task. That’s why Chinese concrete is often poor quality, it could be higher quality they know how to make it at high quality levels but it isn’t due to rampant cheating.
  - thrway63245 3y ago
    The US is also not great at quality (but good at innovating at speed at the expense of all else). Think Detroit and the waste of engineering talent at FAANGs.
    - throw9away6 3y ago
      Some companies can make quality items but I agree not universal or guaranteed. It’s just that historically fraud has been low but every year it gets worse and is more common.

igravious 3y ago

“China is expected to outnumber all other regions in new chip manufacturing facilities, with 20 supporting mature technologies planned.” https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press-releases/semi-press-releases/global-chip-industry-projected-to-invest-more-than-%24500-billion-in-new-factories-by-2024-semi-reports https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press-releases/semi-press... Why is it not easy for China to spin up their own fabs? They have a strategic plan / industrial policy[1]. They have the industrial base[2][3]. They have pumping out engineering graduates[3]. † [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 [2] “From 1900 to 1999, the US produced 4.2 billion tonnes of cement. It consumed 4.4 billion tonnes. China produced 2.4 billion tonnes in 2020, and 2.5 billion tonnes in 2021. This means it produced 4.9 billion tonnes in these two years.” (China produced more cement in two years than the US did in the whole 20th century) https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-us-cement https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-us-cement [3] “China is by far the world’s largest silicon producer, with a production volume estimated at six million metric tons in 2022. The total production volume of silicon worldwide was an estimated 8.8 million metric tons that year.” https://www.statista.com/statistics/1260896/china-silicon-production/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1260896/china-silicon-pr... [4] “China awarded 1.38 million engineering bachelor’s degrees in 2020. The comparable American number is 197,000 (144,000 in engineering and 54,000 in computer science), or just one-seventh of China’s total.” https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ † You know the way we have this mental model in our heads for the size of the US economy post WWII versus the rest of the world?, we're going to have to update our mental model of the size of China's economy today versus the rest of the world.

throw9away6 3y ago
Yeah but quantity has always been chinas strength. Where they have historically struggled is quality. If they can bring the quality up to acceptable levels then those numbers would be truly impressive. That’s what they are striving for
- promptdaddy 3y ago
  Quality of what compared to who? Tiktok is winning.
  - sneak 3y ago
    As is the iPhone. Chinese manufacturing is unparalleled. Comac is also quite instructive.
    - throw9away6 3y ago
      Comac is the opposite of quality and the iPhone quality is so high because Apple is able to set and hold their high western qa standards. A domestic industry would have to struggle with the supply can taking shortcuts at every level and that’s much harder of a task. That’s why Chinese concrete is often poor quality, it could be higher quality they know how to make it at high quality levels but it isn’t due to rampant cheating.
- thrway63245 3y ago
  The US is also not great at quality (but good at innovating at speed at the expense of all else). Think Detroit and the waste of engineering talent at FAANGs.
  - throw9away6 3y ago
    Some companies can make quality items but I agree not universal or guaranteed. It’s just that historically fraud has been low but every year it gets worse and is more common.