"The company's shares fell 2% in extended trading after the outlook was released." That's a pretty mild impact. Multiply that with the low probability of this

"The company's shares fell 2% in extended trading after the outlook was released." That's a pretty mild impact. Multiply that with the low probability of this actually happening to a given company, and taking the risk doesn't sound sooo bad. Obviously it went wrong in this case, but it's hard to tell from the outside if that's because they did bad risk management or because they got unlucky on a calculated risk.