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It could be true. Because if it were obviously untrue the headline would have read: Is the US transitioning to clean energy faster than we thought?

jillesvangurp 3y ago
The question is of course who the royal we is in such headlines. There are predictions such as provided by the IEA, which are notable for being repeatedly proven way too conservative (i.e. wrong) over the years. Then there are the usual skeptics, arm chair experts, etc. who don't notice any changes happening until they have happened. And then there are the various lobbies and special interest groups who deliberately downplay trends they know of in order to protect their legacy businesses. E.g. selling petrol to skeptical/indifferent ice car owners. Every month they can postpone those people buying evs is another month where they keep on buying fuel. There is a lot of misinformation being spread around. So, asking some critical questions about which of those groups the royal we refers to is a good idea. I think the big picture that not a lot of people see yet is that a lot of the clean energy trends have a self re-enforcing effect. For example, you get a lot of negativity about range anxiety when it comes to EVs (a typical argument that seems popular with EV skeptics). But those very same people are not yet talking about the range anxiety for petrol cars they should start worrying about soon. One reason is that that doesn't serve their argument. But another reason could be that they simply don't realize it yet. Either way, double digit percentages of EVs on the road means a double digits decline in demand for fuel. Logical result: a lot of petrol stations will go out of business and pretty soon too. Especially in remote places where demand was low to begin with. Especially petrol stations already operating on very thin margins will start dropping like flies pretty soon. About 20-30% by the end of this decade. And an absolute massacre in the following decade. That's just an inevitable result of what happens when you remove >50% of the demand for petrol and diesel from the market. This will drive reluctant ice car drivers to buy EVs a lot sooner than they currently think. Especially in areas where they'd have reasons to be range anxious. Because those are going to the first places where this starts happening. If your local petrol station goes out of business and you now have to drive (and pay for that fuel) tens of miles to fill up, that's going to result in some obvious decision making and drive up demand for EVs further. Another effect is that all those nice gas plants that countries have been building that have been designed to run most cost effectively when operating 24/7 are being pushed into peaker plant role where they are a lot less lucrative to operate. The simple reality is that in a market with cheap renewables, selling expensive gas generated electricity at cost price is neither feasible nor profitable. So, effectively, a lot of investments in gas plants are becoming problematic financially. The more renewables come online, the longer the periods become that those gas plants are simply redundant and not generating any revenue. Effects like this lead to very rational decisions to invest more in renewables and less in fossil fuel based solutions. And to shift existing investments before they become completely worthless. The more that happens, the more it happens, and the cheaper it gets. What that means is that a lot of companies that are not adapting to this are heading for a problematic future a lot sooner than they currently think. And a lot of money is moving away from such companies.

jillesvangurp 3y ago

The question is of course who the royal we is in such headlines. There are predictions such as provided by the IEA, which are notable for being repeatedly proven way too conservative (i.e. wrong) over the years. Then there are the usual skeptics, arm chair experts, etc. who don't notice any changes happening until they have happened. And then there are the various lobbies and special interest groups who deliberately downplay trends they know of in order to protect their legacy businesses. E.g. selling petrol to skeptical/indifferent ice car owners. Every month they can postpone those people buying evs is another month where they keep on buying fuel. There is a lot of misinformation being spread around. So, asking some critical questions about which of those groups the royal we refers to is a good idea. I think the big picture that not a lot of people see yet is that a lot of the clean energy trends have a self re-enforcing effect. For example, you get a lot of negativity about range anxiety when it comes to EVs (a typical argument that seems popular with EV skeptics). But those very same people are not yet talking about the range anxiety for petrol cars they should start worrying about soon. One reason is that that doesn't serve their argument. But another reason could be that they simply don't realize it yet. Either way, double digit percentages of EVs on the road means a double digits decline in demand for fuel. Logical result: a lot of petrol stations will go out of business and pretty soon too. Especially in remote places where demand was low to begin with. Especially petrol stations already operating on very thin margins will start dropping like flies pretty soon. About 20-30% by the end of this decade. And an absolute massacre in the following decade. That's just an inevitable result of what happens when you remove >50% of the demand for petrol and diesel from the market. This will drive reluctant ice car drivers to buy EVs a lot sooner than they currently think. Especially in areas where they'd have reasons to be range anxious. Because those are going to the first places where this starts happening. If your local petrol station goes out of business and you now have to drive (and pay for that fuel) tens of miles to fill up, that's going to result in some obvious decision making and drive up demand for EVs further. Another effect is that all those nice gas plants that countries have been building that have been designed to run most cost effectively when operating 24/7 are being pushed into peaker plant role where they are a lot less lucrative to operate. The simple reality is that in a market with cheap renewables, selling expensive gas generated electricity at cost price is neither feasible nor profitable. So, effectively, a lot of investments in gas plants are becoming problematic financially. The more renewables come online, the longer the periods become that those gas plants are simply redundant and not generating any revenue. Effects like this lead to very rational decisions to invest more in renewables and less in fossil fuel based solutions. And to shift existing investments before they become completely worthless. The more that happens, the more it happens, and the cheaper it gets. What that means is that a lot of companies that are not adapting to this are heading for a problematic future a lot sooner than they currently think. And a lot of money is moving away from such companies.