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Banks, pension funds, municipalities, retirees. A lot of folks are sitting on very significant losses. The bond market is much larger than the stock market, and
by gizmo 3y ago
Banks, pension funds, municipalities, retirees. A lot of folks are sitting on very significant losses. The bond market is much larger than the stock market, and that means that this is very significant. There are other indicators that trouble is afoot. Credit default swaps spiking for regional banks. Big discordance between stock performance and bond performance. Prolonged and significant yield curve inversion.
Either bonds must go up or stocks must go down. Hard to predict which way this will resolve, but I don't see the Fed intervening unless the situation gets truly dire.
- thoughtstheseus 3y agoDefined benefit pensions do not mind higher rates. They use 6-8% discount rates for their known cash liabilities and can nearly fully immunize their portfolios with government bonds today. That’s maybe $1 trillion of capital converting into coupon bonds soonish.