4 ms·

You are delusional. That could happen in a single event, let alone "ever" as your comment is implying.

cm2012 3y ago
In fact, I would go even further and predict that all cause mortality will be under baseline for countries most affected by climate change in the next 10 years vs 10 years prior, and life expectancy will go up. I absolutely believe that climate change is happening, I think tech and other improvements will outpace the damage it does. I'm very serious about betting on this.
- DanHulton 3y ago
  You know, I'm semi interested in firming up this bet, only because I'll be fucking THRILLED to lose. Make it a hundred, though, so I can defend it to my dependants better and you're on. (I realize that even if I win, I lose, but whatever, I'm more interested in talking with someone who has significant hope, enough to put money on the line.)
- moffkalast 3y ago
  It's a good bet, because either you're right or it won't matter.
gottorf 3y ago
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that in the 50 years from 1970 to 2019, deaths from climate dropped to one-third[0]. That's not one-third the rate; that's one-third of the absolute number of deaths, even as the world population more than doubled in that time period and atmospheric CO2 went from ~325ppm to ~410ppm. In my opinion, this reduction in deaths is mostly due to the increasing ability of the developing world to better master their environment, enabled by technological advances powered largely by cheap energy from fossil fuels. If you have alternative explanations, I'm happy to hear it. But as the evidence stands, it would be more delusional to think climate change will cause rampant mass deaths. [0]: https://library.wmo.int/viewer/57564/download?file=1267_Atlas_of_Mortality_en.pdf&type=pdf https://library.wmo.int/viewer/57564/download?file=1267_Atla...
- bitxbitxbitcoin 3y ago
  All it takes is one wet bulb event in a city near the equator. The deaths will be among those that can’t access climate control powered by cheap fossil fuels.
  - cm2012 3y ago
    And I'd happily bet that even with extra wet bulb events, death rate will be lower and life expectancy higher at the equator. And I would assign a .0001% chance of a single wet bulb event killing millions of people.
    - Filligree 3y ago
      I’ll take that bet, at 1000:1 odds; that should still be profitable for you. How do you want to handle it?
      - cm2012 3y ago
        Not worth my time at those odds to set it up
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  It is fully possible that we have accumulated better technology while still pushing the climate to exponentially more dangerous states.
NoGravitas 3y ago
Yeah, we got a Pinker Thinker here. Dangerous temperature and humidity combined with failing infrastructure will kill millions rapidly, while two simultaneous crop failures in different parts of the world will throw the global food supply into shambles and kill even more people, slowly.

cm2012 3y ago

In fact, I would go even further and predict that all cause mortality will be under baseline for countries most affected by climate change in the next 10 years vs 10 years prior, and life expectancy will go up. I absolutely believe that climate change is happening, I think tech and other improvements will outpace the damage it does. I'm very serious about betting on this.

DanHulton 3y ago
You know, I'm semi interested in firming up this bet, only because I'll be fucking THRILLED to lose. Make it a hundred, though, so I can defend it to my dependants better and you're on. (I realize that even if I win, I lose, but whatever, I'm more interested in talking with someone who has significant hope, enough to put money on the line.)
moffkalast 3y ago
It's a good bet, because either you're right or it won't matter.

gottorf 3y ago

The World Meteorological Organization estimates that in the 50 years from 1970 to 2019, deaths from climate dropped to one-third[0]. That's not one-third the rate; that's one-third of the absolute number of deaths, even as the world population more than doubled in that time period and atmospheric CO2 went from ~325ppm to ~410ppm. In my opinion, this reduction in deaths is mostly due to the increasing ability of the developing world to better master their environment, enabled by technological advances powered largely by cheap energy from fossil fuels. If you have alternative explanations, I'm happy to hear it. But as the evidence stands, it would be more delusional to think climate change will cause rampant mass deaths. [0]: https://library.wmo.int/viewer/57564/download?file=1267_Atlas_of_Mortality_en.pdf&type=pdf https://library.wmo.int/viewer/57564/download?file=1267_Atla...

bitxbitxbitcoin 3y ago
All it takes is one wet bulb event in a city near the equator. The deaths will be among those that can’t access climate control powered by cheap fossil fuels.
- cm2012 3y ago
  And I'd happily bet that even with extra wet bulb events, death rate will be lower and life expectancy higher at the equator. And I would assign a .0001% chance of a single wet bulb event killing millions of people.
  - Filligree 3y ago
    I’ll take that bet, at 1000:1 odds; that should still be profitable for you. How do you want to handle it?
    - cm2012 3y ago
      Not worth my time at those odds to set it up
jncfhnb 3y ago
It is fully possible that we have accumulated better technology while still pushing the climate to exponentially more dangerous states.

NoGravitas 3y ago

Yeah, we got a Pinker Thinker here. Dangerous temperature and humidity combined with failing infrastructure will kill millions rapidly, while two simultaneous crop failures in different parts of the world will throw the global food supply into shambles and kill even more people, slowly.