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I think some time in the next decade there will be a “perfect storm” heat wave combined with a power failure, and millions will die in days. This will jerk the

I think some time in the next decade there will be a “perfect storm” heat wave combined with a power failure, and millions will die in days. This will jerk the Overton window and popular sentiment in an unpredictable direction, and no one knows what the world will look like on the other side of that.

moffkalast 3y ago
Yeah it might be wise to invest into some backup solar and an inverter to run off-grid in a pickle, after all max heat will also typically mean max solar output at the same time.
jonhohle 3y ago
Where in the world would this event take place? In the hottest parts of the US the temperature gets to 46ºC regularly during the summer and people have lived there for hundreds of years. Do people die of heat stoke? Sure, at a rate of hundreds per year. Elsewhere in the world there are places where people love in the same heat with less means of cooking and less access to water. Millions of people may have to adapt. Fortunately, people are good at that.
- ljf 3y ago
  Where would this take place? In places where the wet bulb temperature is already getting close to the limits of human endurance: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need... People can survive amazingly hot temperatures, as long as they can sweat - once the wet bulb temp gets far above 31c people are in trouble - the theoretical maximum is 35c. We won't hit these wet bulb temps in places like the US or even much of Europe, but built up China, India etc are at risk of approaching these in our lifetimes, potentially far sooner.
  - vlz 3y ago
    Thank you! It is really important to emphasize that heat and humidity have both to be taken into account. To quote a relevant passage from the article you linked: > Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. (At the UK’s 19 July peak temperature, relative humidity was approximately 25% and the wet-bulb temperature about 25C.) (WBT is Wet Bulb Temperature)
  - NoGravitas 3y ago
    KSR's novel "The Ministry For the Future" starts with a graphic account of a 35C wet bulb event in India. The heat initially raises the demand for air conditioning, the demand for air conditioning over-stresses the electrical grid, the electrical grid fails so no one has air conditioning, millions die. I don't remember exactly when it's set; in the 2030s?
- ramraj07 3y ago
  The others have pointed out the humidity, dry heat doesn’t just kill hundreds. The 2003 heat wave likely killed 70000 people in Europe. You know, a developed country. https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20230717-parisians-are-most-at-risk-of-dying-in-european-heatwaves https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20230717-parisians-a...
- rando_dfad 3y ago
  Texas, maybe? If the power grid goes down because of excess AC usage? Yes, I read that people have been living for 100s of years (pre-AC) through temps regularly hitting 46 degrees, but see also the response on wet-bulb temps and survivability. 46 degrees for 5 days straight without AC (as in, backup power is gone...) and I think we'll see some losses. Europe regularly sees large deaths due to heat during summers already today, true mostly in elderly.
CalRobert 3y ago
A billion people in India could die and US elections would still be determined by gas prices.
- m_fayer 3y ago
  But what would India do? It might be something hard to ignore.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    India will attempt to geoengineer the sky way before that happens, international pleading or possible other dire consequences be damned.
ramraj07 3y ago
Millions died in the pandemic - didn’t do much to affect any opinion really. Just see in the replies to my comment here. Deniers out to prove desperately that this is all going just fine.

moffkalast 3y ago

Yeah it might be wise to invest into some backup solar and an inverter to run off-grid in a pickle, after all max heat will also typically mean max solar output at the same time.

jonhohle 3y ago

Where in the world would this event take place? In the hottest parts of the US the temperature gets to 46ºC regularly during the summer and people have lived there for hundreds of years. Do people die of heat stoke? Sure, at a rate of hundreds per year. Elsewhere in the world there are places where people love in the same heat with less means of cooking and less access to water. Millions of people may have to adapt. Fortunately, people are good at that.

ljf 3y ago
Where would this take place? In places where the wet bulb temperature is already getting close to the limits of human endurance: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need... People can survive amazingly hot temperatures, as long as they can sweat - once the wet bulb temp gets far above 31c people are in trouble - the theoretical maximum is 35c. We won't hit these wet bulb temps in places like the US or even much of Europe, but built up China, India etc are at risk of approaching these in our lifetimes, potentially far sooner.
- vlz 3y ago
  Thank you! It is really important to emphasize that heat and humidity have both to be taken into account. To quote a relevant passage from the article you linked: > Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. (At the UK’s 19 July peak temperature, relative humidity was approximately 25% and the wet-bulb temperature about 25C.) (WBT is Wet Bulb Temperature)
- NoGravitas 3y ago
  KSR's novel "The Ministry For the Future" starts with a graphic account of a 35C wet bulb event in India. The heat initially raises the demand for air conditioning, the demand for air conditioning over-stresses the electrical grid, the electrical grid fails so no one has air conditioning, millions die. I don't remember exactly when it's set; in the 2030s?
ramraj07 3y ago
The others have pointed out the humidity, dry heat doesn’t just kill hundreds. The 2003 heat wave likely killed 70000 people in Europe. You know, a developed country. https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20230717-parisians-are-most-at-risk-of-dying-in-european-heatwaves https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20230717-parisians-a...
rando_dfad 3y ago
Texas, maybe? If the power grid goes down because of excess AC usage? Yes, I read that people have been living for 100s of years (pre-AC) through temps regularly hitting 46 degrees, but see also the response on wet-bulb temps and survivability. 46 degrees for 5 days straight without AC (as in, backup power is gone...) and I think we'll see some losses. Europe regularly sees large deaths due to heat during summers already today, true mostly in elderly.

CalRobert 3y ago

A billion people in India could die and US elections would still be determined by gas prices.

m_fayer 3y ago
But what would India do? It might be something hard to ignore.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  India will attempt to geoengineer the sky way before that happens, international pleading or possible other dire consequences be damned.

ramraj07 3y ago

Millions died in the pandemic - didn’t do much to affect any opinion really. Just see in the replies to my comment here. Deniers out to prove desperately that this is all going just fine.