I don't think LLMs are going to get us to AGI on their own, but it's a massive step: an obviously more fruitful one than Deep Blue or even AlphaZero, and also o

I don't think LLMs are going to get us to AGI on their own, but it's a massive step: an obviously more fruitful one than Deep Blue or even AlphaZero, and also obviously more useful and disruptive to society. Some people think we can't get to "real" intelligence through Turing-equivalents. Some think we can just tack a little more on an LLM and be there. It's probably something between, but the past-me who thought AGI was definitely >40 years away is much less convinced of this now. Could it happen in the next 5 years? Proooooobably not, but is there a significant chance? Yes.