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From my conversations with climate scientists my understanding is that around 2005-2015 (rough estimate) the opposite was the case: A few people said "we are go

From my conversations with climate scientists my understanding is that around 2005-2015 (rough estimate) the opposite was the case: A few people said "we are going straight to hell", and the majority publicly called them "alarmist" and "counterproductive", while (in private conversation, with multiple people) admitting that the "alarmists" might well be correct.

Paul-Craft 3y ago
I still get called "alarmist" and "doomer" when I bring up what the realistic impacts of climate change 10 years out, based just on current emissions is. Just look here: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ You can plainly see that if we just do as we've been doing, by 2100, we're looking at 2.6-2.9 degrees of warming over pre-industrial levels. If we actually managed to hit the 2030 targets that have been set (and, that's a huge long shot, to be clear), then we're in for about 2.4 degrees. If we literally just do what the fuck we've said we were going to do, then the prediction is still about 2 degrees of warming. The "optimistic scenario" (lol) is labeled 1.8 degrees. Even if we got the help of a magical genie to stop emitting all greenhouse gasses today, we're still looking at at least 1.2-1.6 degrees of warming, according to NASA: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/would-gw-stop-with-greenhouse-gases/ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/would-gw-s... In the past year, we've seen mass die offs of salmon and snow crabs. Insects, as a group, are on the decline. Climate migration is starting to happen, and the countries that are receiving these refugees are not welcoming them with open arms. This is barely the beginning. It only gets worse from here over the next decade. I honestly would not be surprised to see global civilization collapse in my lifetime, and my actuarial lifespan is up in about 45 years.
- simbolit 3y ago
  Please keep in mind that most (nearly all?) of our climate models only include rising carbon emissions from human sources. Thawing permafrost and warming swamps and burning forests and such will (very likely) produce additional carbon(-equivalent greenhouse gases). They use the beautiful term "Unrepresented Earth system feedback mechanisms" in this 2019 paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z.pdf Keep on alarming, doomer!
  - Paul-Craft 3y ago
    Hah. Yeah. The whole bit about climate tipping points, and how we've tripped (IIRC) 5 of them, and are in danger of tripping (IIRC again, sorry) another 8 or 9.... that's a whole other comment. I was literally telling my therapist about a week and a half ago that it's so frustrating that I'm probably one of the most "doom and gloom" people I know on these subjects, yet every time I've been proven wrong, it's because I haven't been pessimistic enough. I'm about ready to start cross dressing and change my name to Cassandra, lol.
    - The_Stone 3y ago
      One of my best friends when she transitioned literally did change her name to Cassandra because of this
    - soupfordummies 3y ago
      Outside of therapy which you just mentioned, how are you coping with all of this "doom and gloom" ? How are you preparing for the worsening effects of climate change?
SauciestGNU 3y ago
Another assertion I've read in the discussions is that the so-called alarmists were being extremely conservative with their assertions to prevent being taken as alarmist, and even those tempered conservative predictions were ridiculed by those with a vested interest in denying climate change.

Paul-Craft 3y ago

I still get called "alarmist" and "doomer" when I bring up what the realistic impacts of climate change 10 years out, based just on current emissions is. Just look here: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ You can plainly see that if we just do as we've been doing, by 2100, we're looking at 2.6-2.9 degrees of warming over pre-industrial levels. If we actually managed to hit the 2030 targets that have been set (and, that's a huge long shot, to be clear), then we're in for about 2.4 degrees. If we literally just do what the fuck we've said we were going to do, then the prediction is still about 2 degrees of warming. The "optimistic scenario" (lol) is labeled 1.8 degrees. Even if we got the help of a magical genie to stop emitting all greenhouse gasses today, we're still looking at at least 1.2-1.6 degrees of warming, according to NASA: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/would-gw-stop-with-greenhouse-gases/ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/would-gw-s... In the past year, we've seen mass die offs of salmon and snow crabs. Insects, as a group, are on the decline. Climate migration is starting to happen, and the countries that are receiving these refugees are not welcoming them with open arms. This is barely the beginning. It only gets worse from here over the next decade. I honestly would not be surprised to see global civilization collapse in my lifetime, and my actuarial lifespan is up in about 45 years.

simbolit 3y ago
Please keep in mind that most (nearly all?) of our climate models only include rising carbon emissions from human sources. Thawing permafrost and warming swamps and burning forests and such will (very likely) produce additional carbon(-equivalent greenhouse gases). They use the beautiful term "Unrepresented Earth system feedback mechanisms" in this 2019 paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z.pdf Keep on alarming, doomer!
- Paul-Craft 3y ago
  Hah. Yeah. The whole bit about climate tipping points, and how we've tripped (IIRC) 5 of them, and are in danger of tripping (IIRC again, sorry) another 8 or 9.... that's a whole other comment. I was literally telling my therapist about a week and a half ago that it's so frustrating that I'm probably one of the most "doom and gloom" people I know on these subjects, yet every time I've been proven wrong, it's because I haven't been pessimistic enough. I'm about ready to start cross dressing and change my name to Cassandra, lol.
  - The_Stone 3y ago
    One of my best friends when she transitioned literally did change her name to Cassandra because of this
  - soupfordummies 3y ago
    Outside of therapy which you just mentioned, how are you coping with all of this "doom and gloom" ? How are you preparing for the worsening effects of climate change?

SauciestGNU 3y ago

Another assertion I've read in the discussions is that the so-called alarmists were being extremely conservative with their assertions to prevent being taken as alarmist, and even those tempered conservative predictions were ridiculed by those with a vested interest in denying climate change.