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My question is at what point do government fail? I know it seems like a nut job question but, if we assume global warming is nothing we've seen before event th

My question is at what point do government fail? I know it seems like a nut job question but, if we assume global warming is nothing we've seen before event then wouldn't at least some governments fail? Is there some way to predict it? Let's also assume some radical change in some governments like to a fascist or communist type regime is possible as well

hkt 3y ago
I'd guess no western governments would fail. Personally I suspect when the west reaches its ideological reflexive response to climate change, it'll look like fascism. I also suspect we'd have preferred communism. What's scary to me is the malign actions that are possible in the name of climate change. Imagine you're living in Pakistan and your home has been washed away. Is it so hard to believe someone somewhere will choose to pursue revenge? Armed with the simple fact that Americans have higher per capita carbon emissions than any other people - double as much, if memory serves - then someone sufficiently angry may well be able to justify indiscriminate killing of Americans to themselves. Apologies for the morbidity here, but what I'm saying here is that by not adopting explicit policies of "just transition" we're setting up the conditions for climate fascism in the west and climate terrorism too.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  Individual governments as in the ruling coalitions are likely to fall. Probably in response to extreme measures they would put in place to combat climate change and massive degradation of quality of life that would follow. I believe people will choose furthering climate change over massively lowering their standards of living. And they would be violent in these goals. So nations might stay, but they will just throw away most of actions taken.
  - hkt 3y ago
    It isn't an either/or for most countries. I suspect America and Russia will have to change enormously, the rest of the west just needs decent public transport, cogeneration of heat, insulation, and some changes to agriculture. Nobody is going to have an awful life if we deal with climate change in a just way, even if we limit ourselves to today's technology.
Paul-Craft 3y ago
There are serious people predicting the collapse of global civilization by 2050. I think that might be about right. One of the things we should have learned from the consequences of the COVID pandemic measures is that global supply chains are extremely fragile, and once things start breaking down, getting them restarted again takes a huge amount of effort. Eventually, if we don't do anything, we'll reach a point where the amount we're spending on mitigation measures becomes nearly equal to the the damage caused from the consequences we're supposed to be mitigating. At that point, it all becomes pretty pointless.

hkt 3y ago

I'd guess no western governments would fail. Personally I suspect when the west reaches its ideological reflexive response to climate change, it'll look like fascism. I also suspect we'd have preferred communism. What's scary to me is the malign actions that are possible in the name of climate change. Imagine you're living in Pakistan and your home has been washed away. Is it so hard to believe someone somewhere will choose to pursue revenge? Armed with the simple fact that Americans have higher per capita carbon emissions than any other people - double as much, if memory serves - then someone sufficiently angry may well be able to justify indiscriminate killing of Americans to themselves. Apologies for the morbidity here, but what I'm saying here is that by not adopting explicit policies of "just transition" we're setting up the conditions for climate fascism in the west and climate terrorism too.

Ekaros 3y ago
Individual governments as in the ruling coalitions are likely to fall. Probably in response to extreme measures they would put in place to combat climate change and massive degradation of quality of life that would follow. I believe people will choose furthering climate change over massively lowering their standards of living. And they would be violent in these goals. So nations might stay, but they will just throw away most of actions taken.
- hkt 3y ago
  It isn't an either/or for most countries. I suspect America and Russia will have to change enormously, the rest of the west just needs decent public transport, cogeneration of heat, insulation, and some changes to agriculture. Nobody is going to have an awful life if we deal with climate change in a just way, even if we limit ourselves to today's technology.

Paul-Craft 3y ago

There are serious people predicting the collapse of global civilization by 2050. I think that might be about right. One of the things we should have learned from the consequences of the COVID pandemic measures is that global supply chains are extremely fragile, and once things start breaking down, getting them restarted again takes a huge amount of effort. Eventually, if we don't do anything, we'll reach a point where the amount we're spending on mitigation measures becomes nearly equal to the the damage caused from the consequences we're supposed to be mitigating. At that point, it all becomes pretty pointless.