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Absolutely agree with this. I see this juxtaposition between calls for basically civilization-ending extreme measures to stay below 1.5 and others saying 1.5 is

Absolutely agree with this. I see this juxtaposition between calls for basically civilization-ending extreme measures to stay below 1.5 and others saying 1.5 is already a certainty and will end us all, and it just ends up making me tired and not care about climate change anymore because nobody's talking sense on what should and could be done.

hkt 3y ago
What you're experiencing and saying is actually completely right. Issues don't motivate people, and actions lead beliefs as much (or more) than vice versa A paper on exactly this : https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5a My suggestions would be these: * Think about where your food comes from, and how it is fertilised. Read about different modes of agriculture. * Think about minimising your energy usage, especially fossil fuels. Look at heat pumps, cycling infrastructure, that kind of thing. * Learn about alternatives for building and anything else. Building with straw bales is a particular favourite of mine because it can be done so simplistically by people with relatively little training. * Find projects where other people are doing stuff and join in. See the above article - self-efficacy is a muscle, build it by exercising it. A great source of inspiration: https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/ https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/ Edit: also, we'll blow the 1.5C carbon budget in 8 years. Sorry - we'd have to cut emissions by 20% a year every year to avoid that. Plus sequestration of course.
- sharemywin 3y ago
  My question is at what point do government fail? I know it seems like a nut job question but, if we assume global warming is nothing we've seen before event then wouldn't at least some governments fail? Is there some way to predict it? Let's also assume some radical change in some governments like to a fascist or communist type regime is possible as well
  - hkt 3y ago
    I'd guess no western governments would fail. Personally I suspect when the west reaches its ideological reflexive response to climate change, it'll look like fascism. I also suspect we'd have preferred communism. What's scary to me is the malign actions that are possible in the name of climate change. Imagine you're living in Pakistan and your home has been washed away. Is it so hard to believe someone somewhere will choose to pursue revenge? Armed with the simple fact that Americans have higher per capita carbon emissions than any other people - double as much, if memory serves - then someone sufficiently angry may well be able to justify indiscriminate killing of Americans to themselves. Apologies for the morbidity here, but what I'm saying here is that by not adopting explicit policies of "just transition" we're setting up the conditions for climate fascism in the west and climate terrorism too.
    - Ekaros 3y ago
      Individual governments as in the ruling coalitions are likely to fall. Probably in response to extreme measures they would put in place to combat climate change and massive degradation of quality of life that would follow. I believe people will choose furthering climate change over massively lowering their standards of living. And they would be violent in these goals. So nations might stay, but they will just throw away most of actions taken.
      - hkt 3y ago
        It isn't an either/or for most countries. I suspect America and Russia will have to change enormously, the rest of the west just needs decent public transport, cogeneration of heat, insulation, and some changes to agriculture. Nobody is going to have an awful life if we deal with climate change in a just way, even if we limit ourselves to today's technology.
  - Paul-Craft 3y ago
    There are serious people predicting the collapse of global civilization by 2050. I think that might be about right. One of the things we should have learned from the consequences of the COVID pandemic measures is that global supply chains are extremely fragile, and once things start breaking down, getting them restarted again takes a huge amount of effort. Eventually, if we don't do anything, we'll reach a point where the amount we're spending on mitigation measures becomes nearly equal to the the damage caused from the consequences we're supposed to be mitigating. At that point, it all becomes pretty pointless.
- arrowsmith 3y ago
  > Think about where your food comes from, and how it is fertilised. I would add: start growing your own food. You don't have to grow all your own food; you can start small. It's easy, anyone can do it, and you don't need much space to get started - you can even grow some things indoors if you don't have a garden. I only grow a fairly small amount of my own food but it's been one of the most rewarding things I've ever done, and it's completely changed my relationship with food and the way I see nature. The post-carbon future can only be a future in which far more people take a closer interest in food production.
  - hkt 3y ago
    Amen. I've heard permaculture courses are good for learning such things and they're really enjoyable. Great example!
BLKNSLVR 3y ago
That's a failure of the political class who are using it to score points at the expense of a lot of people's lives. It's really quite gross. Climate change is due to, and a threat to, the status quo, and those who have gained their societal positions on the back of this status quo will defend the righteousness of their status literally to the death. And these folks typically have communication platforms that reach a long way and therefore muddy the waters, often with the sideline cheering of said politicians.
- pseudo0 3y ago
  The "never let a crisis go to waste" crowd seem more concerning. It isn't the status quo political class who want us to live in pods and eat bugs (metaphorically speaking). A lot of the rhetoric and policy proposals related to climate change seem designed to foist a reduced standard of living on the middle and lower classes in Western countries.
  - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
    This feels like a microcosm for politics in general. You have a real problem (climate change) and you have an effective solution (carbon tax refunded as a dividend), but that doesn't really serve anybody's political goals. Doing that would destroy the fossil fuel industry as people switch to electric cars and generate power with renewables or nuclear to avoid the carbon tax. Fossil fuel industry is a Republican constituency, so they fight it. Doing that wouldn't serve any partisan political agenda. Given the choice most people would just buy an electric car, not ride the bus. It would likely require a significant number of new nuclear power plants. All of the money is being refunded to the population, not diverted to cronies and political donors. The most cost effective source of solar panels is currently China, not domestic union jobs. But Democrats keep asking for those things instead, which is dumb and most importantly less effective, so instead we get nothing.
  - tonyedgecombe 3y ago
    Not much from what I’ve seen. Even the Green party in the UK is reluctant to admit that we can’t solve this without behaviour change.

hkt 3y ago

What you're experiencing and saying is actually completely right. Issues don't motivate people, and actions lead beliefs as much (or more) than vice versa A paper on exactly this : https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5a My suggestions would be these: * Think about where your food comes from, and how it is fertilised. Read about different modes of agriculture. * Think about minimising your energy usage, especially fossil fuels. Look at heat pumps, cycling infrastructure, that kind of thing. * Learn about alternatives for building and anything else. Building with straw bales is a particular favourite of mine because it can be done so simplistically by people with relatively little training. * Find projects where other people are doing stuff and join in. See the above article - self-efficacy is a muscle, build it by exercising it. A great source of inspiration: https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/ https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/ Edit: also, we'll blow the 1.5C carbon budget in 8 years. Sorry - we'd have to cut emissions by 20% a year every year to avoid that. Plus sequestration of course.

sharemywin 3y ago
My question is at what point do government fail? I know it seems like a nut job question but, if we assume global warming is nothing we've seen before event then wouldn't at least some governments fail? Is there some way to predict it? Let's also assume some radical change in some governments like to a fascist or communist type regime is possible as well
- hkt 3y ago
  I'd guess no western governments would fail. Personally I suspect when the west reaches its ideological reflexive response to climate change, it'll look like fascism. I also suspect we'd have preferred communism. What's scary to me is the malign actions that are possible in the name of climate change. Imagine you're living in Pakistan and your home has been washed away. Is it so hard to believe someone somewhere will choose to pursue revenge? Armed with the simple fact that Americans have higher per capita carbon emissions than any other people - double as much, if memory serves - then someone sufficiently angry may well be able to justify indiscriminate killing of Americans to themselves. Apologies for the morbidity here, but what I'm saying here is that by not adopting explicit policies of "just transition" we're setting up the conditions for climate fascism in the west and climate terrorism too.
  - Ekaros 3y ago
    Individual governments as in the ruling coalitions are likely to fall. Probably in response to extreme measures they would put in place to combat climate change and massive degradation of quality of life that would follow. I believe people will choose furthering climate change over massively lowering their standards of living. And they would be violent in these goals. So nations might stay, but they will just throw away most of actions taken.
    - hkt 3y ago
      It isn't an either/or for most countries. I suspect America and Russia will have to change enormously, the rest of the west just needs decent public transport, cogeneration of heat, insulation, and some changes to agriculture. Nobody is going to have an awful life if we deal with climate change in a just way, even if we limit ourselves to today's technology.
- Paul-Craft 3y ago
  There are serious people predicting the collapse of global civilization by 2050. I think that might be about right. One of the things we should have learned from the consequences of the COVID pandemic measures is that global supply chains are extremely fragile, and once things start breaking down, getting them restarted again takes a huge amount of effort. Eventually, if we don't do anything, we'll reach a point where the amount we're spending on mitigation measures becomes nearly equal to the the damage caused from the consequences we're supposed to be mitigating. At that point, it all becomes pretty pointless.
arrowsmith 3y ago
> Think about where your food comes from, and how it is fertilised. I would add: start growing your own food. You don't have to grow all your own food; you can start small. It's easy, anyone can do it, and you don't need much space to get started - you can even grow some things indoors if you don't have a garden. I only grow a fairly small amount of my own food but it's been one of the most rewarding things I've ever done, and it's completely changed my relationship with food and the way I see nature. The post-carbon future can only be a future in which far more people take a closer interest in food production.
- hkt 3y ago
  Amen. I've heard permaculture courses are good for learning such things and they're really enjoyable. Great example!

BLKNSLVR 3y ago

That's a failure of the political class who are using it to score points at the expense of a lot of people's lives. It's really quite gross. Climate change is due to, and a threat to, the status quo, and those who have gained their societal positions on the back of this status quo will defend the righteousness of their status literally to the death. And these folks typically have communication platforms that reach a long way and therefore muddy the waters, often with the sideline cheering of said politicians.

pseudo0 3y ago
The "never let a crisis go to waste" crowd seem more concerning. It isn't the status quo political class who want us to live in pods and eat bugs (metaphorically speaking). A lot of the rhetoric and policy proposals related to climate change seem designed to foist a reduced standard of living on the middle and lower classes in Western countries.
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  This feels like a microcosm for politics in general. You have a real problem (climate change) and you have an effective solution (carbon tax refunded as a dividend), but that doesn't really serve anybody's political goals. Doing that would destroy the fossil fuel industry as people switch to electric cars and generate power with renewables or nuclear to avoid the carbon tax. Fossil fuel industry is a Republican constituency, so they fight it. Doing that wouldn't serve any partisan political agenda. Given the choice most people would just buy an electric car, not ride the bus. It would likely require a significant number of new nuclear power plants. All of the money is being refunded to the population, not diverted to cronies and political donors. The most cost effective source of solar panels is currently China, not domestic union jobs. But Democrats keep asking for those things instead, which is dumb and most importantly less effective, so instead we get nothing.
- tonyedgecombe 3y ago
  Not much from what I’ve seen. Even the Green party in the UK is reluctant to admit that we can’t solve this without behaviour change.