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Great. Now I only need something to make the right choices.

by smokel 3y ago

lifeisstillgood 3y ago
That is incredibly insightful. Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler advocates "Libertarian Paternalism" - a sort of liberal society that has good "defaults" - such as automatically taking 10% of salary each month and putting into tax sheltered index funds. We will find ourselves using iphones across millions of people to identify "the right choices" over millions of lives - behavioural empidemology
- schneems 3y ago
  I looked it up and found this on Wikipedia: > Libertarian paternalism is similar to asymmetric paternalism, which refers to policies designed to help people who behave irrationally and so are not advancing their own interests, while interfering only minimally with people who behave rationally. I think that the article posted is people acting rationally based on the incentives and markets in their life. Though it sounds like that’s not the same conclusion you came to. Maybe you can say more. > interfering only minimally with people who behave rationally. The problem I have with this is most bad actors are quite rational, and the most successful not only play within the rules, they shape them (regulatory capture).
  - jacobr1 3y ago
    >I think that the article posted is people acting rationally based on the incentives and markets in their life. The position is that many people do _not_ act rationally. So the argument is make the choices that are best for most the default, but at the same time don't force that choice, for those that would pick an alternative. It does set up an incentive to influence that choice, but often that is the case we already have today. Making the choice of a default explicitly part of how both public and private services are delivered, including both the data-driven analysis of better outcomes and the UX work expose the default seems to be worth it. The alternative is a choice still getting made, but getting made either arbitrarily or with more nefarious influence.
    - lifeisstillgood 3y ago
      yeah that's my interpretation too - government ensures defaults are best interests of (almost all) individuals and yet allows deviation by choice. It's like, you can choose to sign up for adverts on facebook and youtube but they should be off by default (ok maybe that's my paternalism).
chung8123 3y ago
You joke but that is how recommendation engines, reviews, and discussion forums have changed how we make choices.
Condition1952 3y ago
Somebody who helps you make right choices is called a mentor
- vjk800 3y ago
  Good to know. Now how do I get one?
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Ask in the right places. Be investable.
    - vsareto 3y ago
      Ironic since the people who are "investable" are the ones to least likely need a mentor
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Perhaps I misspoke. When I said be investable, it’s okay to need help, it’s okay to need direction, and it’s okay to need support. Be motivated as well as ready and willing to cultivate grit would’ve been a better statement. I have mentored people who made the most of my time contribution, and people who fucked off and wasted my time. My time is non renewable, every hour spent is an hour gone forever, and I want to provide as much value as possible with the time I have left (hence my position).
        chinchilla2020 3y ago
        your time is definitely non renewable if your username is 'toomuchtodo'. (btw hackernews is a waste of all our time)
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Doing things that bring you joy and enjoyment aren't a waste of time. Those are the point, everything leads to that. The nickname is sourced from the idea that there is never enough time to do everything worth doing, and sadness about what will get left behind undone on the journey. "Too Much to Do, Not Enough Time"
nlawalker 3y ago
This is the next frontier. Today, older generations of folks often marvel at (both the positives and negatives of) the way that younger generations depend on connectivity, made possible by their phones, to navigate their lives. My major prediction for the future is that my generation, once we're old, will marvel at (the positives and negatives of) the number and magnitude of decisions that younger generations will let their technology make for them. When to leave the house; what's on the grocery list; what colleges to apply to; where to buy a house; who to pursue a relationship with - people will be guided to answers to these questions the way that our maps apps guide us to our destinations today, and many people will simply follow those guides without thinking about it too much.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ekanes 3y ago
  I've thought the same, and it'll make perfect sense. If the LLM knows you very very well, and it knows the world better than any human could, it can match those up well. The effects on broader society could be interesting. If everyone knows about some secluded beach that's cheap and great, that would quickly change... I wonder if we'll see a "smoothing out" of everything so that the big outlier advantages and disadvantages will go away, because everything is known by everyone('s LLM).
  - chinchilla2020 3y ago
    The LLM does not know the world better than human could. It know how to rapidly search an encylopedia better than a human could.
  - cooper_ganglia 3y ago
    Or alternatively, when everyone is special, no one is. When the supply of genius goes up, the demand goes down. Everyone is a genius, so genius is no longer valued, and even those who were very naturally gifted are valueless to those who have already mopped up all the resources that control the society made up of LLM-infused geniuses. I hope the future doesn't look like the lovechild of Brave New World and Flowers for Algernon, but I have a feeling that it may...

Great. Now I only need something to make the right choices.

by smokel 3y ago

Great. Now I only need something to make the right choices.

That is incredibly insightful. Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler advocates "Libertarian Paternalism" - a sort of liberal society that has good "defaults" - such as automatically taking 10% of salary each month and putting into tax sheltered index funds. We will find ourselves using iphones across millions of people to identify "the right choices" over millions of lives - behavioural empidemology

schneems 3y ago
I looked it up and found this on Wikipedia: > Libertarian paternalism is similar to asymmetric paternalism, which refers to policies designed to help people who behave irrationally and so are not advancing their own interests, while interfering only minimally with people who behave rationally. I think that the article posted is people acting rationally based on the incentives and markets in their life. Though it sounds like that’s not the same conclusion you came to. Maybe you can say more. > interfering only minimally with people who behave rationally. The problem I have with this is most bad actors are quite rational, and the most successful not only play within the rules, they shape them (regulatory capture).
- jacobr1 3y ago
  >I think that the article posted is people acting rationally based on the incentives and markets in their life. The position is that many people do _not_ act rationally. So the argument is make the choices that are best for most the default, but at the same time don't force that choice, for those that would pick an alternative. It does set up an incentive to influence that choice, but often that is the case we already have today. Making the choice of a default explicitly part of how both public and private services are delivered, including both the data-driven analysis of better outcomes and the UX work expose the default seems to be worth it. The alternative is a choice still getting made, but getting made either arbitrarily or with more nefarious influence.
  - lifeisstillgood 3y ago
    yeah that's my interpretation too - government ensures defaults are best interests of (almost all) individuals and yet allows deviation by choice. It's like, you can choose to sign up for adverts on facebook and youtube but they should be off by default (ok maybe that's my paternalism).

chung8123 3y ago

You joke but that is how recommendation engines, reviews, and discussion forums have changed how we make choices.

Condition1952 3y ago

Somebody who helps you make right choices is called a mentor

vjk800 3y ago
Good to know. Now how do I get one?
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Ask in the right places. Be investable.
  - vsareto 3y ago
    Ironic since the people who are "investable" are the ones to least likely need a mentor
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Perhaps I misspoke. When I said be investable, it’s okay to need help, it’s okay to need direction, and it’s okay to need support. Be motivated as well as ready and willing to cultivate grit would’ve been a better statement. I have mentored people who made the most of my time contribution, and people who fucked off and wasted my time. My time is non renewable, every hour spent is an hour gone forever, and I want to provide as much value as possible with the time I have left (hence my position).
      - chinchilla2020 3y ago
        your time is definitely non renewable if your username is 'toomuchtodo'. (btw hackernews is a waste of all our time)
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Doing things that bring you joy and enjoyment aren't a waste of time. Those are the point, everything leads to that. The nickname is sourced from the idea that there is never enough time to do everything worth doing, and sadness about what will get left behind undone on the journey. "Too Much to Do, Not Enough Time"

nlawalker 3y ago

This is the next frontier. Today, older generations of folks often marvel at (both the positives and negatives of) the way that younger generations depend on connectivity, made possible by their phones, to navigate their lives. My major prediction for the future is that my generation, once we're old, will marvel at (the positives and negatives of) the number and magnitude of decisions that younger generations will let their technology make for them. When to leave the house; what's on the grocery list; what colleges to apply to; where to buy a house; who to pursue a relationship with - people will be guided to answers to these questions the way that our maps apps guide us to our destinations today, and many people will simply follow those guides without thinking about it too much.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ekanes 3y ago
I've thought the same, and it'll make perfect sense. If the LLM knows you very very well, and it knows the world better than any human could, it can match those up well. The effects on broader society could be interesting. If everyone knows about some secluded beach that's cheap and great, that would quickly change... I wonder if we'll see a "smoothing out" of everything so that the big outlier advantages and disadvantages will go away, because everything is known by everyone('s LLM).
- chinchilla2020 3y ago
  The LLM does not know the world better than human could. It know how to rapidly search an encylopedia better than a human could.
- cooper_ganglia 3y ago
  Or alternatively, when everyone is special, no one is. When the supply of genius goes up, the demand goes down. Everyone is a genius, so genius is no longer valued, and even those who were very naturally gifted are valueless to those who have already mopped up all the resources that control the society made up of LLM-infused geniuses. I hope the future doesn't look like the lovechild of Brave New World and Flowers for Algernon, but I have a feeling that it may...