4 ms·

as a general rule when one makes statements that go against the common wisdom one should also make some sort of effort at showing the cause for ones arguments,

as a general rule when one makes statements that go against the common wisdom one should also make some sort of effort at showing the cause for ones arguments, but at any rate here is a stat that says 1 in 5 prisoners are in prison for a drug offense https://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/pie2023_drugs.html https://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/pie2023_drugs.html yes I know a drug offense is not just simple possession but I mean, you didn't try to provide anything for your astounding claims, so I figure I could get the ball rolling here. as far as Sweden https://www.statista.com/statistics/534214/sweden-persons-sentenced-to-imprisonment-by-type-of-crime/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/534214/sweden-persons-se... 3237 people in Swedish Prison for drug offenses Sweden has a population of over 10 million so less than 0.03% going by this https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/01/16/percent-incarcerated/ https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/01/16/percent-incarce... I figure the American rate must be 0.2% It is not close. Which is what I think most people would predict - that it was not even close. on edit: I see Bumby went and got some stats too, to clarify I don't doubt that violent offenses outweigh other offenses, what I doubt is that America does not have a large number of people incarcerated for drug possession.

gruez 3y ago
>yes I know a drug offense is not just simple possession but I mean, you didn't try to provide anything for your astounding claims, so I figure I could get the ball rolling here. The same source[1] lists drug possession as 34k of 132k total in state prisons. That suggests only a quarter of the drug offenses are actually for possession, and it's only 3.2% of the overall state prison population. That said, those figures represent the upper bound of of people in prison for possession, because offenses could be pleaded down. [1] https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html
shuckles 3y ago
> It is not close. Which is what I think most people would predict - that it was not even close. With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales: Your data is consistent with my claim: I meant the denominator being the prison population, not the entire population. Sweden has about 8600 people in prison so about 37% of their prison population is in there for "drug offenses", whereas in the United States it's less than 1 in 5 per your Prison Policy citation. Obviously if you treat entire population as the denominator, then any comparison of Swedish and American prisons is useless because we incarcerate a much larger percent of the population. Edit: I realize my original comment said "people" not "proportion of people", but in my defense interpreting it to be people literally is a bit absurd. Sweden's population is about 30x smaller than the United States, so there's no way the counts are comparable! Edit 2: Actually no I did say “As a percentage”. Whew. Next, you can see from this sample of federal prison (table on page 2): though drug offenses were the most serious charge for half of prisoners, only 0.1% was for possession. The rest was for trafficking and sales. https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf This data is from 2010, and the United States has undergone a decriminalization revolution since regarding possession, so new prosecutions are even less likely to be possession claims.
- OkayPhysicist 3y ago
  > With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales With the caveat to your caveat that "sales" in the US tends to include anything above 1 or 2 doses. I'm no bartender, but I'll still buy beer by the twelve pack.
  - shuckles 3y ago
    It’d be hard to convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that you intended to distribute beers from a 12 pack.
    - OkayPhysicist 3y ago
      Only because most jurors have some background knowledge of what constitutes a "normal" amount of beer to buy and consume. A gram of cocaine could be described as 6 lines, or it could be called several dozen bumps. The prosecution is going to go up there and wax poetic about how you'd only buy multiple thirtyracks if you're planning on throwing a party i.e. distributing, and your average jury will eat that up. Assuming you even get to a jury trial. For most pseudo-distribution cases like this, the defendant is going to plead out, because they know they're dead to rights on the possession charge, and if the judge throws the book at them for that then they may well have been better off taking the distribution plea deal.
      - shuckles 3y ago
        This varies a lot by jurisdiction so it’s hard to determine aggregate impacts. For every anecdote of judges throwing the book at someone, I could probably offer one of judges letting off someone easy. The important point stands regardless: Sweden has a larger percent of its prison population incarcerated for drug offenses than the United States. Most people going to prison were convicted of a violent crime.
        OkayPhysicist 3y ago
        Sorry, maybe I was unclear: the potentially high penalties for possession are used a threat, to push people into pleading guilty on the distribution charges. Possession alone can potentially land you in jail for up to 3 years. Distribution has a wider range, from 1 year up to potentially 9 years. If you're caught in possession of a couple grams of coke, then the prosecutor is going to want to get you on distribution. They can say something like "You will be found guilty of possession, we both know that. If you plead guilty on both counts, we can recommend concurrent sentencing and you'll be out of prison in less than two years. If you don't take the deal, we're going to push for everything we can get: even if you get off on the distribution charge, you'll still be in prison for 3 years for possession." Now, you or I, affluent tech-bros that this forum attracts, know that this is a terrible deal. We'd hire a lawyer, fight it tooth and nail, and walk away with a possession conviction and a slap on the wrist sentence. But if you're some broke kid, with a public defender who's really just there to counsel you on what plea deal you should take, it might not seem like such a bad idea.

gruez 3y ago

>yes I know a drug offense is not just simple possession but I mean, you didn't try to provide anything for your astounding claims, so I figure I could get the ball rolling here. The same source[1] lists drug possession as 34k of 132k total in state prisons. That suggests only a quarter of the drug offenses are actually for possession, and it's only 3.2% of the overall state prison population. That said, those figures represent the upper bound of of people in prison for possession, because offenses could be pleaded down. [1] https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html

shuckles 3y ago

> It is not close. Which is what I think most people would predict - that it was not even close. With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales: Your data is consistent with my claim: I meant the denominator being the prison population, not the entire population. Sweden has about 8600 people in prison so about 37% of their prison population is in there for "drug offenses", whereas in the United States it's less than 1 in 5 per your Prison Policy citation. Obviously if you treat entire population as the denominator, then any comparison of Swedish and American prisons is useless because we incarcerate a much larger percent of the population. Edit: I realize my original comment said "people" not "proportion of people", but in my defense interpreting it to be people literally is a bit absurd. Sweden's population is about 30x smaller than the United States, so there's no way the counts are comparable! Edit 2: Actually no I did say “As a percentage”. Whew. Next, you can see from this sample of federal prison (table on page 2): though drug offenses were the most serious charge for half of prisoners, only 0.1% was for possession. The rest was for trafficking and sales. https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf This data is from 2010, and the United States has undergone a decriminalization revolution since regarding possession, so new prosecutions are even less likely to be possession claims.

OkayPhysicist 3y ago
> With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales With the caveat to your caveat that "sales" in the US tends to include anything above 1 or 2 doses. I'm no bartender, but I'll still buy beer by the twelve pack.
- shuckles 3y ago
  It’d be hard to convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that you intended to distribute beers from a 12 pack.
  - OkayPhysicist 3y ago
    Only because most jurors have some background knowledge of what constitutes a "normal" amount of beer to buy and consume. A gram of cocaine could be described as 6 lines, or it could be called several dozen bumps. The prosecution is going to go up there and wax poetic about how you'd only buy multiple thirtyracks if you're planning on throwing a party i.e. distributing, and your average jury will eat that up. Assuming you even get to a jury trial. For most pseudo-distribution cases like this, the defendant is going to plead out, because they know they're dead to rights on the possession charge, and if the judge throws the book at them for that then they may well have been better off taking the distribution plea deal.
    - shuckles 3y ago
      This varies a lot by jurisdiction so it’s hard to determine aggregate impacts. For every anecdote of judges throwing the book at someone, I could probably offer one of judges letting off someone easy. The important point stands regardless: Sweden has a larger percent of its prison population incarcerated for drug offenses than the United States. Most people going to prison were convicted of a violent crime.
      - OkayPhysicist 3y ago
        Sorry, maybe I was unclear: the potentially high penalties for possession are used a threat, to push people into pleading guilty on the distribution charges. Possession alone can potentially land you in jail for up to 3 years. Distribution has a wider range, from 1 year up to potentially 9 years. If you're caught in possession of a couple grams of coke, then the prosecutor is going to want to get you on distribution. They can say something like "You will be found guilty of possession, we both know that. If you plead guilty on both counts, we can recommend concurrent sentencing and you'll be out of prison in less than two years. If you don't take the deal, we're going to push for everything we can get: even if you get off on the distribution charge, you'll still be in prison for 3 years for possession." Now, you or I, affluent tech-bros that this forum attracts, know that this is a terrible deal. We'd hire a lawyer, fight it tooth and nail, and walk away with a possession conviction and a slap on the wrist sentence. But if you're some broke kid, with a public defender who's really just there to counsel you on what plea deal you should take, it might not seem like such a bad idea.