4 ms·

> The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration. The death penalty for misdemeanors would also red

> The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration. The death penalty for misdemeanors would also reduce crime. The externalities make it not worth it. Notably, Chicago tried exactly what you're proposing (rank order list of likely criminals with proactive surveillance and intervention). It didn't really work. [1] [1] https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/19/12552384/chicago-heat-list-tool-failed-rand-test https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/19/12552384/chicago-heat-lis...

shadowtree 3y ago
No they didn't, as stated in the article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago "Chicago has an estimated population of over 100,000 active gang members from nearly 60 factions. Gang warfare and retaliation is common in Chicago. Gangs were responsible for 61% of the homicides in Chicago in 2011." Former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy blames Chicago's gang culture for its high rates of homicide and other violent crime, stating "It's very frustrating to know that it's like 7% of the population causes 80% of the violent crime..." Again, some data science mumbojumbo is preventing actual, logical solutions. El Salvador put gang members, in totality, in jail. Now it has the LOWEST homicide rate in Latin America - it had the HIGHEST before. So yeah, the anti-carceration movement in the US has caused the deaths of more people, African-Americans in particular, than any terrorist organization.
- hatthew 3y ago
  While El Salvador's method has certainly been effective, I'm not sure it's something to discuss in the context of the average developed country. I don't know much about it, and while it was probably an improvement over the old system that resulted in so much homicide, it seems to me like the new system is a dictatorship with fascist tendencies.
  - curiousllama 3y ago
    They imprisoned ~2% of their adult population to get the gangs, effectively based purely on perceived membership. It would be equivalent to increasing US prison population ~4x. [1] It’s not really a serious argument in the American context https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-gangs-mass-trials https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/el-salvador-na...
    - shadowtree 3y ago
      Which is why citizens in the US will keep getting harmed and killed at a rate unheard of in developed countries. Just today: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-shot-by-career-criminal-on-his-way-to-high-school-reunion/amp/ https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-... Father of 3 kids, murdered by a career criminal. Over 60(!) prior arrests, wide range of violent crime, never served more than 6 months. You guys have no solutions, no alternatives. Nothing besides empty platitudes of "social justice" and "serious arguments". Bill Clinton briefly course corrected, three strike laws and such ... and crime started plummeting. As if banning leaded gasoline was the reason, haha. But then, social justice reared its head and here we are. Crime and murder is coming for even the most bleeding heart socialists: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-beloved-activist-poet-is-randomly-stabbed-to-death-in-front-of-girlfriend-on-nyc-street/amp/ https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-... Watch what the consequence of this total idiocy of soft on crime does to society. Watch a fellow liberal getting stabbed to death. As if this is normal in a civilized country.
      - joenot443 3y ago
        FWIW, you’re entirely correct and I don’t expect things to get better. Ryan Carson’s story is an especially tragic one. I don’t know how many more times this needs to happen before people accept that something’s gone deeply wrong.
- chaps 3y ago
  The 100k stat that wiki page cites is from this [0] hilariously uhthorough document. The "gang database" that I'm assuming that statistic is sourced from has been found to be completely riddled with errors. "Those mistakes included two people listed as 132 years old and 13 people recorded as 118 years old." [1] "Another said he double-checks information in the database by looking up police reports, because he’s aware that some people are identified as gang members based solely on where they live." [2] [0] https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/fullpage/chicago-gang-violence-numbers-17509042 https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/fullpage/chicago-gang-viole... [1] https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/9/6/23861835/chicago-police-gang-database-civilian-commission-superintendent-snelling-public-forum https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/9/6/23861835/chi... [2] https://www.propublica.org/article/politic-il-insider-chicago-gang-database https://www.propublica.org/article/politic-il-insider-chicag...
Georgelemental 3y ago
El Salvador, formerly the world's most homicidal country, tried what GP is proposing. It worked beyond people's wildest dreams: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLV/el-salvador/murder-homicide-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLV/el-salvador/murder...
- chunker_tron 3y ago
  It seems like the murder/homicide rates have been on a very steady decline since 2015, but the aggressive arrest policies only came in last year. Should everyone not be looking at happened in 2015?
  - Georgelemental 3y ago
    Bukele took office in 2019, when the murder rate was well within the normal range of the past few decades. It's now far, far below that range (just noticed that the source I linked only goes to 2021, but murders went down by over half again in 2022: https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-..., and they are on trend to do the same this year)

shadowtree 3y ago

No they didn't, as stated in the article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago "Chicago has an estimated population of over 100,000 active gang members from nearly 60 factions. Gang warfare and retaliation is common in Chicago. Gangs were responsible for 61% of the homicides in Chicago in 2011." Former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy blames Chicago's gang culture for its high rates of homicide and other violent crime, stating "It's very frustrating to know that it's like 7% of the population causes 80% of the violent crime..." Again, some data science mumbojumbo is preventing actual, logical solutions. El Salvador put gang members, in totality, in jail. Now it has the LOWEST homicide rate in Latin America - it had the HIGHEST before. So yeah, the anti-carceration movement in the US has caused the deaths of more people, African-Americans in particular, than any terrorist organization.

hatthew 3y ago
While El Salvador's method has certainly been effective, I'm not sure it's something to discuss in the context of the average developed country. I don't know much about it, and while it was probably an improvement over the old system that resulted in so much homicide, it seems to me like the new system is a dictatorship with fascist tendencies.
- curiousllama 3y ago
  They imprisoned ~2% of their adult population to get the gangs, effectively based purely on perceived membership. It would be equivalent to increasing US prison population ~4x. [1] It’s not really a serious argument in the American context https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-gangs-mass-trials https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/el-salvador-na...
  - shadowtree 3y ago
    Which is why citizens in the US will keep getting harmed and killed at a rate unheard of in developed countries. Just today: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-shot-by-career-criminal-on-his-way-to-high-school-reunion/amp/ https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-... Father of 3 kids, murdered by a career criminal. Over 60(!) prior arrests, wide range of violent crime, never served more than 6 months. You guys have no solutions, no alternatives. Nothing besides empty platitudes of "social justice" and "serious arguments". Bill Clinton briefly course corrected, three strike laws and such ... and crime started plummeting. As if banning leaded gasoline was the reason, haha. But then, social justice reared its head and here we are. Crime and murder is coming for even the most bleeding heart socialists: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-beloved-activist-poet-is-randomly-stabbed-to-death-in-front-of-girlfriend-on-nyc-street/amp/ https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-... Watch what the consequence of this total idiocy of soft on crime does to society. Watch a fellow liberal getting stabbed to death. As if this is normal in a civilized country.
    - joenot443 3y ago
      FWIW, you’re entirely correct and I don’t expect things to get better. Ryan Carson’s story is an especially tragic one. I don’t know how many more times this needs to happen before people accept that something’s gone deeply wrong.
chaps 3y ago
The 100k stat that wiki page cites is from this [0] hilariously uhthorough document. The "gang database" that I'm assuming that statistic is sourced from has been found to be completely riddled with errors. "Those mistakes included two people listed as 132 years old and 13 people recorded as 118 years old." [1] "Another said he double-checks information in the database by looking up police reports, because he’s aware that some people are identified as gang members based solely on where they live." [2] [0] https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/fullpage/chicago-gang-violence-numbers-17509042 https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/fullpage/chicago-gang-viole... [1] https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/9/6/23861835/chicago-police-gang-database-civilian-commission-superintendent-snelling-public-forum https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/9/6/23861835/chi... [2] https://www.propublica.org/article/politic-il-insider-chicago-gang-database https://www.propublica.org/article/politic-il-insider-chicag...

Georgelemental 3y ago

El Salvador, formerly the world's most homicidal country, tried what GP is proposing. It worked beyond people's wildest dreams: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLV/el-salvador/murder-homicide-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLV/el-salvador/murder...

chunker_tron 3y ago
It seems like the murder/homicide rates have been on a very steady decline since 2015, but the aggressive arrest policies only came in last year. Should everyone not be looking at happened in 2015?
- Georgelemental 3y ago
  Bukele took office in 2019, when the murder rate was well within the normal range of the past few decades. It's now far, far below that range (just noticed that the source I linked only goes to 2021, but murders went down by over half again in 2022: https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-..., and they are on trend to do the same this year)