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Lumber prices down 11% YoY
- oblio 3y agoAre these changes reflected in any downstream price changes?
- chubs 3y agoI'm a little concerned that the downturn in that graph coincides with changing from measuring one financial instrument to another. But i dont know enough about those instruments to know if that's an issue or not :)
- pnpnp 3y agoThe price of lumber also was astronomical during Covid. I think it’s somewhat logical to expect a return to a more “normal” price as economics bounce back from a somewhat unprecedented couple years of crazy economics.
- wlesieutre 3y agoFor the unfamiliar, a "board foot" is a unit of lumber volume representing a square foot of board with 1 inch thickness. So an 8' long board 12" wide and 1" thick is 8 board feet. Or half as wide and twice as thick (6" x 2") in the same length is also 8 board feet. You get the idea.
- em3rgent0rdr 3y agometric system is so much easier: m³
- hartator 3y agoI don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- candiddevmike 3y agoIf you buy logs you probably can
- tinco 3y agoIf you're purchasing gross lumber here in The Netherlands it is definitely priced per m3. For example here: https://inlands-hout.nl/houtsoorten-en-prijslijst/ https://inlands-hout.nl/houtsoorten-en-prijslijst/ Just like with board feet it doesn't say anything about the actual dimensions. Also, I don't think it's much better as a unit than board feet either, both have very unclear relationship to the actual amounts you need. You'll always need to do a pretty complex calculation to figure out how much you'd need to buy. The pricing is mostly useful as a comparison to look at relative or day to day pricing differences.
- singleshot_ 3y agoAnd for what it’s worth, the board foot cost of a 2x4 and the board foot cost of a 2x12 are wildly different.
- mtmail 3y agoGermany uses Euro per Festmeter as measure, a Festmeter is 1m^3. Trees are round of course but Festmeter is on the invoices and pricing tables.
- mrcode007 3y agoUnless you’re making infinitely thin two dimensional planes made of wood you always get a cubic volume of wood. Always. No exceptions. What do you think W x L x H stand for?
- Jedd 3y agoA foot is a (variable) measure of length. A board foot is a measure of volume - with an implicit third dimension. So you could just use the SI unit for volume. A board foot ~= 2.4 litres. This seems a bit silly though, as timber is not fungible in the way you'd expect a volume of something to be. As noted by sibling comments, you very much can buy timber in cubic metres - a convenience for costing / transport - but you're not going to buy timber without knowing dimensions of the individual lengths.
- jpitz 3y agoMetric makes the math easier, but it is much easier for me to relate to 40 board-feet of lumber than to 0.0944 cubic-meters.
- olyjohn 3y agoJust like temperature. F is easier for me to relate to. 0 is very cold. 100 is very hot. We like it pretty warm, so 70-72 is great. Also F has a much finer scale for adjustments. I don't have to set my thermostat to 22.5 degrees to be comfortable. I don't really care about the boiling point or freezing point of water in my day to day life.
- osigurdson 3y agoI bet you likes miles, feet and country specific gallons too. Enjoy your unit system!
- applied_heat 3y agoI am quite interested in knowing if it is going to rain or snow, if there might be ice on the road, if my hot tub might freeze if it is not turned on, etc.
- singleshot_ 3y agoWhen you say one inch wide, do you mean one of the twelve things in a foot, or one of the two things in the width of a 2x4?
- yojo 3y agoI believe you’re referring to “nominal” vs “actual” size. For anyone who doesn’t know, a 2x4 is actually ~1.5”x3.5” Dimensional lumber is the original shrinkflator
- derekp7 3y agoJust like a quarter pound burger is 1/4 lb before cooking.
- BoiledCabbage 3y agoThe "smallest dimension is 1". So in a 10ft long 2x4 it would be the actual size of a 2x4 (1.5"x3.5"x10'). A standard board foot would be (1"x12"x12"), or any other math that makes up the same volume.
- angry_moose 3y agoTo elaborate a little more: Board thicknesses are measured in the "quarter system" - 4/4 (pronounced "4 quarter", that is 4 quarters of an inch) is a 1" thick rough-rough sawn board; 8/4 (8 quarter) is a 2" thick rough board. As this is rough sawn (super rough and unsightly finish), you usually lose at least 1/8" while finishing the board, so a 4/4 rough board gives you something around 3/4" finished product. This leads to 5/4 being another fairly common dimension, as you can get a 1" finished board out of it. 6/4 and 12/4 are somewhat common as well. It might seem like an "ugly dimension" compared to something like m^3, but its really built around speed. Watching someone skilled price out an enormous stack of mismatched lumber (width, thickness, and length) in seconds with a lumber rule is always a fascinating process to watch (https://www.popularwoodworking.com/techniques/the-lumber-rule/ https://www.popularwoodworking.com/techniques/the-lumber-rul...). Usually the $/board foot increases slightly at higher dimensions as thicker lumber is harder to produce. I got some 4/4 black walnut for $12.80/bdft last week; 8/4 was closer to $16. Edit: This is also why 2x4s are actually 1.5"x3.5" - historically they were 2x4 rough sawn lumber, but .5" is lost in both dimension when producing finished boards you purchase in the store.
- anarazel 3y agoIsn't the loss for dimensional lumber more due to drying than finishing?
- angry_moose 3y agoThat is some of it and it varies a lot based on the species, though I'm a lot less knowledgeable there. In the hardwoods I usually work with (walnut/maple/padauk) its fairly minimal. A nominally 4/4 board usually comes in about 1/16" small; which is a lot less than I lose running it through the planar. Some of that could be the sawmill skimping out too and cutting just a bit undersized.... I'm finding quoted numbers between 2-8% volumetric shrinkage (https://www.wood-database.com/wood-articles/dimensional-shrinkage/ https://www.wood-database.com/wood-articles/dimensional-shri...), which is still quite a bit less than you find in the small dimension of a 2x4 (2"-> 1.5%, or ~33%)
- PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
- tpmx 3y agoThe chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.
- reducesuffering 3y agoI love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
- greggsy 3y agoCripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.
- reducesuffering 3y agoNot sure. That was the lone outlier I saw too. Quick internet glance seems to implicate crop disease and Florida hurricanes dropping supplies.
- mcculley 3y agoHere in Florida, citrus greening has devastated the groves.
- eth0up 3y agoThat... and grubby land grabs, cavalier/deranged development (Lennar), and ignorant newcomers who think making a subtropical keystone ecosystem conform to their hell of previous residence is justified by exorbitant checks and brutal disregard.
- greggsy 3y agoI’m interested to understand your concerns - is there one issue that you’d be able to expand on?
- alexfoo 3y agotinlc
- somethoughts 3y agothere is no lumber cartel?
- alexfoo 3y agoYes, long running joke in the old first days of email spam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumber_Cartel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumber_Cartel
- matternous 3y agoLumber prices seen all over the place when I search for various species of hardwood. Is there a standard online retailer to reference?
- angry_moose 3y agoNot really because its so regionally dependent - prices can vary dramatically within even 100 miles. I just picked up a bunch of of black walnut for $12.80/bdft, but I could get it for around $8 if I drove a couple hours south.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 3y agoThat seems surprising nobody has picked up on that arbitrage opportunity. Is it because most lumber volume is performed under commercial contracts? The DIY market is too small to chase?
- listenallyall 3y agoSupposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic prices. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-prices-cheaper-now-than-before-pandemic-rcna43601 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price... I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber prices will reduce new construction costs.
- curiousllama 3y agoRetail prices are generally pretty sticky - if the wholesale price persists, they'll come down, but it'll take time.
- quadrifoliate 3y agoI hope they come down -- I have reduced my restaurant spend considerably since restaurant (even chain) prices went up by 30-50% in my area compared to pre-Covid. Maybe I'm too price-conscious, but I'd expect demand to go down over time as the rising interest rates affect daily life.
- curiousllama 3y agoYea for sure. This is the recession & deflation folks have been asking for.
- Analemma_ 3y agoIt's not gonna happen. Labor costs determine the price of restaurant meals way more than wholesale food costs do. Those have gone up and probably are not ever coming back down; wages are a one-way ratchet in all but the most extreme circumstances.
- listenallyall 3y agoI'm like you, however it sure seems that the proliferation of DoorDash and the rest proves that plenty of people are entirely price-insensitive. Expensive base prices + 20-30% in fees. Personally, I think there's a lot of overlap between heavy DD users and people on social media complaining publicly about how tough it is to make ends meet. Just a guess.
- throw0101a 3y agoCan't wait for another Odd Lots podcast supply chain episode on lumber. Previously (make it a trilogy): * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/why-the-price-of-lumber-has-soared-day-after-day-a https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/why-the-price-of-lumber-has-s... * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/stinson-dean-on-the-lumber-crash-that-followed-the https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/stinson-dean-on-the-lumber-cr...
- bradly 3y agoIf you want to learn about the lumber industry and how the supply chain works I recommend this podcast: https://www.lumberupdate.com/ https://www.lumberupdate.com/
- gigel82 3y agoThings like plywood (for furniture) didn't come down in price yet to pre-pandemic levels; hoping they catch up soon. You used to be able to get 3/4 maple 4x8 for ~$50, now it's $85 at Home Depot and over $100 from the local lumberyard.
- somethoughts 3y agoAlways thought it'd be cool if there was some economic simulation game (simcity, city skylines, etc.) that was tied to real life commodity markets.
- m463 3y agoWould that make the game less fun? or would the economy be the fun part of the game, automating and driving down prices? I think games like factorio, the fun comes from automating and being less of a mental burden.
- somethoughts 3y agoI was thinking a bit like EVE online or Off World Trading Company but using real life stats.
- devnullbrain 3y agoTying EVE online outcomes to real world markets is a guaranteed way to disrupt real world markets.
- bluGill 3y agoReal world ecconomics doesn't act like the simplified models in econ 101. Anyone with significant supply is adjusting how much supply they produce based on expected demand to keep prices where they need them. Sometimes someone chooses a lower price to take business from competition, but that is still a complex analysis.
- extraduder_ire 3y agoThis often backfires on your game design. Like in escape from tarkov, where booming bitcoin prices made any player with GPUs very rich ingame. (also, tying the weather system to moscow weather led to people being annoyed at the constant rain) I'd be interested to see someone attempt market manipulation IRL to affect their game though.
- 3y ago
- post_break 3y agoThis means my homeowners insurance will surely go down right? Right…? Of course not.
- pwarner 3y agoLabor to fix your house is still very much more expensive than before COVID
- adamc 3y agoNot doubting you, but why?
- rgmerk 3y agoA few factors - labour markets are very tight generally, new housing construction has increased, WFH and hybrid has increased the demand for renovating existing housing to make space for home offices (and improve the amenity of housing more generally).
- bdcravens 3y agoConstriction of foreign-born labor as well https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/tough-immigration-laws-construction-workers-home-builders-rcna82540 https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/tough-immigration-laws...
- Dig1t 3y agoThere were almost 200k people who crossed into the US illegally in August. It's over 2M people per year now, pouring into the US. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-august-2023-monthly-update#:~:text=In%20August%202023%2C%20the%20U.S.,Title%2042%20has%20significantly%20decreased https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-rele....
- oblio 3y ago
- pcurve 3y agoFrom the same blog: vehicle sales are up 15% YoY https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/vehicles-sales-increase-to-1567-million.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/vehicles-sales-in... Not necessarily a sign of health, but playing catcup with hisotrical trend.
- ehnto 3y agoUsed vehicle markets seem to have slowed, after a dramatic and surprising spike during the pandemic. Specialty vehicles in particular. For new cars, there was a dealer/scarcity dynamic that seems to have allowed dealers to charge more than RRP, and consumers were paying it. I wonder if that has had an impact.
- balderdash 3y agohttps://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle... Definitely come down, but still quite elevated
- ggm 3y agoTreating "price" purely as a supply signal, and not as "value" or "worth it" I think it's true the price of lumber worldwide related to supply chain shock, and the consequences for just-in-time dependencies in the building sector. I am a little surprised things like chip and plywood suffered, I guess when you cannot get timber, you go to manufactured wood (which in some circumstances actually has better mechanical strength, but most people think has lower aesthetics although opinions differ on this) and maybe even as a downstream (sometimes, waste+, certainly different cuts/grades of timber go in) informed component of construction it "costs more" in these times. The whole Price/Value/Worth thing is really confusing. Timber is amazing. Burying it inside the carcase of a home feels at first glance like "why not something else" but the entire tooling of construction crews can be built around "its wood" not "erect this premade steel form" or "lower the entire wall with insulation, wires windows and pipes into place" as they do on 'grand designs' The problem really is that price isn't just a pure supply signal. People treat the ratchet up and down as distinct arcs with their own dynamic. It goes up faster than it comes down unless you know something about the future to make it worth dumping at any price. With wood, there isn't much surprise in the future driving price down, only suprises driving price up. "Building codes to forbid wooden housing due to giant space termites" wasn't on my roadmap for 2024 but you never know...
- greenie_beans 3y ago> I guess when you cannot get timber i thought timber wasn't the bottleneck here, at least not in the US? from what i know, US timber has a glut of supply, something like 40 years worth of inventory. maybe you meant "lumber"?
- ggm 3y agoYes. I think the fine-grained differences of meaning here matter. Good call. I am less sure why the same thing happened here in Australia because we have a huge logging, processing and distributing system domestically and for export, but we also had massive shortages of framing supplies. I suspect it was the timber/lumber distinction, maybe the woods available on-shore weren't being directed into framing and this depends on cheaper sources off-shore, which just disappeared. Our cost of construction has gone up so much a lot of builders are going bust. It's causing angst in a hot market, house prices and rents out of control, and the government intervening but the industry says it can't build that much more than is on the table, its not lack of desire, it's lack of capacity in construction overall. Most of the fixes simply increase housing cost inflation. But this glitch on framing wood and related products, was really bad for us.
- yieldcrv 3y agoThanks JPOW! stay the course, more money to delete
- Nick87633 3y agoJPOW sold all his stocks at the peak. He is gonna keep rates high until he can buy something at a steep discount, and it ain't 2x4s.
- user3939382 3y agoThis could be a leading indicator for a slow down in real estate.
- ZoomerCretin 3y agoAmazing how counterproductive this is, and how the Federal Reserve refuses to see this. High prices are their own cure. Given high demand and high margins, people will increase production to meet demand. And yet this is not going to happen because interest rate hikes have doubled the price of new construction. High interest rates may lower or slow real estate appreciation in the short term, but they also increase it in the long term by killing production increases.
- notyourwork 3y agoAnd companies in the business are still using supply chain as an excuse for prices. Recently experienced this when going through quotes for an 800 foot cedar fence.
- newhotelowner 3y agoI track price of the gloves. Box of gloves is very close to pre covid level. Used to be $2/box in 2019. now you can get it around $2.5 box.
- oarfish 3y ago25% inflation over 4 years is still substantial. If the contents are even still the same size.
- firebones 3y agoSame size is important. There's likely also 12-15% shrinkflation that increases this significantly.
- metaphor 3y ago$2.50/box today relative to $2.00/box in 2019 represents +25% inflation...so nowhere near purported pre-COVID levels. CPI less food and energy[1] over the same period increased +17.3%...so currently priced worse than nominal inflation. Of course, this baseline reference assumes shrinkflation hasn't impacted your "box" unit. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19FTW https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19FTW
- firebones 3y ago>> $2.50/box today relative to $2.00/box in 2019 represents +25% inflation...so nowhere near purported pre-COVID levels. Annualized, that is 5.7% inflation. (1.25 increase ^ 0.25 for 4 years elapsed). So not pre-covid levels, but not nominal 25% annual inflation. Still a little over 2x desired annual growth rate.
- havnagiggle 3y agoI'm sure home insurance prices are going to follow shortly after. You know, because that's why they needed to raise prices. Yep, any day now.
- ars 3y agoConstruction prices are still elevated due to labor shortages, lumber is only a minor component. And don't say "so pay labor more" because there is a labor shortage in every single industry. If you pay more for job x, job y will also go up, until everyone goes up and then inflation is higher.
- ZoomerCretin 3y agoThere is no labor shortage. US prime age employment is far below that of other rich countries. We have a huge amount of slack. And yes, "just pay more" is the solution. There is no shortage of Lamborghinis, but there is a shortage at $1000. Machine operators near me are paid $12/hour, the equivalent of 2009's minimum wage after inflation adjustment. Yes, wages are too low. Yes, it's good to pay more money and for everyone to be forced to pay more money for wages. If you want cheap services built on extreme inequality, you're free to move to a 2nd or 3rd world country.
- ars 3y ago> Yes, it's good to pay more money and for everyone to be forced to pay more money for wages. You might not have thought that through - if you actually did that, then everything costs more, and there is no net change in affordability. All you did was cause inflation. If you want to help everyone, without drawbacks, then increased productivity is the way to go. Then things are cheaper. Services are harder to improve though. > There is no labor shortage. Unemployment is historically low, so that's not correct.
- ZoomerCretin 3y ago> You might not have thought that through - if you actually did that, then everything costs more, and there is no net change in affordability. All you did was cause inflation. Is your mental model of goods and services that 100% of the cost is labor, and that everything is sold at-cost? This makes absolutely no sense. Unemployment is a flawed metric. Prime age employment captures everyone, not just those who fall under the government's many convenient exceptions.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ChatGTP 3y ago“In the USA” In Asia, for example, they have doubled.
- rabbits_2002 3y agoHoly cow I knew lumber was expensive during covid but I didn’t know it was more than double the usual price. Thats crazy.
- psadauskas 3y agoExcept for Baltic Birch plywood, its still 3x what I was paying a couple years ago. (It used to be around $65 for a ¾" 4x8, now its $180)