5 ms·

Metaculus currently gives 165 months with a very flat distribution https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13532/sbf-prison-sentence-length/ https://www.metaculus.c

by hcks 3y ago

Metaculus currently gives 165 months with a very flat distribution https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13532/sbf-prison-sentence-length/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13532/sbf-prison-sentenc...

wmf 3y ago
Of course EAs are now betting on their messiah's prison sentence.
- jeffreyrogers 3y ago
  I associate prediction markets with libertarian economists, EAs just happen to like them too.
sdwr 3y ago
(After looking at the prediction), 15 years feels very reasonable. Like, it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life, which is terrible, but there's still light at the end of the tunnel.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life Oh man, that hurts, ha! In 15 years he'll still be younger than I am today. I know I'm old, but still, ouch.
  - artursapek 3y ago
    Just be glad you didn’t spend those years in a prison cell :-D
  - sdwr 3y ago
    :D sorry you had to hear it from me The future is now, old man!
- Khaine 3y ago
  It really doesn't. Think of all the lives he has ruined. He should rot in prison.
  - jnwatson 3y ago
    SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake. Woe to the hedge funds and HFT firms that lost money to SBF. FTX was just a particularly fetid pool in a massive swamp of an industry. This isn't to say he shouldn't get a decent chunk of prison time.
    - DANmode 3y ago
      > He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/celsius-bankruptcy-filing-shows-long-reach-of-sam-bankman-fried https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/celsius-b... https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/celsius-freezes-assets-big-canadian-pension-plan-that-backed-the-network-on-the-hook/ https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/celsius-freezes-assets-big-ca...
    - quesera 3y ago
      > SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake FWIW, and I don't know whether to be cynical or impressed by this, but claims ($19.5BB) against Madoff's fraud have been largely restituted ($14.6BB, ~75%). There were individual human investors in both Madoff and FTX. There were also wealth funds and the absurdly rich in both. But as it stands today, FTX may have done more harm to humans than Madoff.
    - paulddraper 3y ago
      Where did the money come from?

by hcks 3y ago

wmf 3y ago

Of course EAs are now betting on their messiah's prison sentence.

jeffreyrogers 3y ago
I associate prediction markets with libertarian economists, EAs just happen to like them too.

sdwr 3y ago

(After looking at the prediction), 15 years feels very reasonable. Like, it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life, which is terrible, but there's still light at the end of the tunnel.

rootusrootus 3y ago
> it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life Oh man, that hurts, ha! In 15 years he'll still be younger than I am today. I know I'm old, but still, ouch.
- artursapek 3y ago
  Just be glad you didn’t spend those years in a prison cell :-D
- sdwr 3y ago
  :D sorry you had to hear it from me The future is now, old man!
Khaine 3y ago
It really doesn't. Think of all the lives he has ruined. He should rot in prison.
- jnwatson 3y ago
  SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake. Woe to the hedge funds and HFT firms that lost money to SBF. FTX was just a particularly fetid pool in a massive swamp of an industry. This isn't to say he shouldn't get a decent chunk of prison time.
  - DANmode 3y ago
    > He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/celsius-bankruptcy-filing-shows-long-reach-of-sam-bankman-fried https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/celsius-b... https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/celsius-freezes-assets-big-canadian-pension-plan-that-backed-the-network-on-the-hook/ https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/celsius-freezes-assets-big-ca...
  - quesera 3y ago
    > SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake FWIW, and I don't know whether to be cynical or impressed by this, but claims ($19.5BB) against Madoff's fraud have been largely restituted ($14.6BB, ~75%). There were individual human investors in both Madoff and FTX. There were also wealth funds and the absurdly rich in both. But as it stands today, FTX may have done more harm to humans than Madoff.
  - paulddraper 3y ago
    Where did the money come from?