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I wouldn’t compare GenAI to cryptocurrency because there’s no equivalent pyramid scheme mentality of “invest early in this asset and sell it later 100x” - it’s
by joefourier 3y ago
I wouldn’t compare GenAI to cryptocurrency because there’s no equivalent pyramid scheme mentality of “invest early in this asset and sell it later 100x” - it’s much closer to a traditional tech hype bubble. The average user isn’t roped in by the promise of buying and reselling a token, but by using and possibly paying for a product that can theoretically be useful to them on its own.
Like any tech bubble, you have crowds of investors pouncing on the “next big thing”, which will inevitably be overhyped and oversold, leading to the bubble popping when expectations outpace actual returns; but the core technology is still valid. The dotcom bubble popping didn’t mean the Internet was a fad, the video game crash of 1983 didn’t permanently doom the industry, the railway mania in the 1840s didn’t mean no one ever took a train after it crashed… any new and exciting development attracts grifters, but it eventually stabilises once people learn to separate the hype from the real applications of the tech. I remember when VR went through this - it was absolutely overhyped, but today there’s still a solid community around it even if it didn’t change the world.
With open source models and fine-tunes being uploaded on Huggingface, there’s no fraud, they’re perfectly free, and you can test them out and see for yourself that some work better than others even if benchmarks only tell part of the story. There’s absolutely a glut of thin veneers over APIs and models offering questionable benefits, but there’s also real value in having a solid UI on top of a basic model; we’ll see the ecosystem stabilise eventually.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- raincole 3y ago> “invest early in this asset and sell it later 100x” Literally VCs.
- loveparade 3y agoAnd many founders. The only difference to crypto here is that it's not the average retail investor doing pumping and dumping, it's the VCs and founders. Most founders will try to cash out with an acquisition while the hype is strong before the thing crashes and people realize there isn't any value behind it. Just like, you know, an ICO, but regulated. Just to clarify, I'm not talking about LLMs in general, which I do believe have value, but about the current wave of low quality AI startups in the bubble.
- trilbyglens 3y agoThis is always the case though with a new area of tech. The speed and churn of these "pump and dump" actions is slow, and very high effort (a typical acquisition will have a multi-year cliff requirement for founders).
- loveparade 3y agoYeah, I'm just pushing back on the claim that crypto assets are fundamentally different. It's the same scheme, just faster and unregulated.