4 ms·

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new g

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it" -- Max Planck

m463 3y ago
Makes me think of that Feynman commencement speech - hopefully we can get better: We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It’s a little bit off, because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It’s interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of the electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bigger than Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher. Why didn’t they discover that the new number was higher right away? It’s a thing that scientists are ashamed of—this history—because it’s apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan’s, they thought something must be wrong—and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number closer to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We’ve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease. https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
- bsder 3y ago
  While it's a nice story, I seem to remember that it isn't true. There was some article a while back that talked about the fact that measurements from the oil drop experiment pretty much moved as the input data got better.
  - emmelaich 3y ago
    As far as I know, the story is true. If the input data just got better, you'd expect measurements above and below the real value. IIRC, the experimental value went in one direction, from Millikan's to the currently accepted value.
    - bsder 3y ago
      Values were both above and below: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/44092/is-feynmans-claim-about-the-history-of-measurements-of-the-charge-of-the-electr https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/44092/is-feynma...
      - emmelaich 3y ago
        Interesting but not fully convincing. I am sure I've seen a plot of values over time from the original to the 1950s or so. I must try and find it... The linked SE question is relevant. https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/264/timeline-of-measurements-of-the-electrons-charge https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/264/timeline-of-meas...
  - oefnak 3y ago
    Please provide a source, otherwise your comment does not provide any value.
    - bsder 3y ago
      Citations already exist in sibling comments. The linked StackOverflow questions also have further sources where people are trying to track down time-limited original sources. You clearly couldn't be bothered to put in even a minimal amount of effort to follow the citations that have existed for 12 hours prior to your useless post. I will give your post as much consideration as you gave mine.
j7ake 3y ago
Or in this case, when a global pandemic makes it abundantly clear that those rejected ideas actually had merit.
nathancahill 3y ago
What's the quote that's similar but about political change? Haven't been able to find the correct attribution.

m463 3y ago

Makes me think of that Feynman commencement speech - hopefully we can get better: We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It’s a little bit off, because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It’s interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of the electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bigger than Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher. Why didn’t they discover that the new number was higher right away? It’s a thing that scientists are ashamed of—this history—because it’s apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan’s, they thought something must be wrong—and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number closer to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We’ve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease. https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

bsder 3y ago
While it's a nice story, I seem to remember that it isn't true. There was some article a while back that talked about the fact that measurements from the oil drop experiment pretty much moved as the input data got better.
- emmelaich 3y ago
  As far as I know, the story is true. If the input data just got better, you'd expect measurements above and below the real value. IIRC, the experimental value went in one direction, from Millikan's to the currently accepted value.
  - bsder 3y ago
    Values were both above and below: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/44092/is-feynmans-claim-about-the-history-of-measurements-of-the-charge-of-the-electr https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/44092/is-feynma...
    - emmelaich 3y ago
      Interesting but not fully convincing. I am sure I've seen a plot of values over time from the original to the 1950s or so. I must try and find it... The linked SE question is relevant. https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/264/timeline-of-measurements-of-the-electrons-charge https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/264/timeline-of-meas...
- oefnak 3y ago
  Please provide a source, otherwise your comment does not provide any value.
  - bsder 3y ago
    Citations already exist in sibling comments. The linked StackOverflow questions also have further sources where people are trying to track down time-limited original sources. You clearly couldn't be bothered to put in even a minimal amount of effort to follow the citations that have existed for 12 hours prior to your useless post. I will give your post as much consideration as you gave mine.

j7ake 3y ago

Or in this case, when a global pandemic makes it abundantly clear that those rejected ideas actually had merit.

nathancahill 3y ago

What's the quote that's similar but about political change? Haven't been able to find the correct attribution.