5 ms·

Yes, there are papers attempting that, such as this recent one, which looked at whether shelter in place policies reduced overall excess mortality: https://onli

Yes, there are papers attempting that, such as this recent one, which looked at whether shelter in place policies reduced overall excess mortality: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.4737 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.4737 . "Using an event study approach and data from 43 countries and all U.S. states, we measure changes in excess deaths following the implementation of COVID-19 shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. We do not find that countries or U.S. states that implemented SIP policies earlier had lower excess deaths. We do not observe differences in excess deaths before and after the implementation of SIP policies, even when accounting for pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates."

vcdimension 3y ago
There's also this one: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature... which is summarised here: https://www.facebook.com/econometricsguru/posts/pfbid0wtvVjJGG69FA2R8Ahm8CfxgufbH6qVPd7U1EbSK6unAeuHcAbr9fCy4iKvM43qMjl https://www.facebook.com/econometricsguru/posts/pfbid0wtvVjJ...
ryandrake 3y ago
Almost nowhere on earth did "stay at home" actually happen. We all had these so-called mandates, but people (especially in more rural areas) pretty much did whatever the hell they wanted with no repercussions since there was almost zero enforcement. They were out and about, shopping for their khakis at "essential" businesses, eating at the restaurants who refused to closed (also with no consequence) and basically ignoring the mandates. We don't have a valid experiment group because everywhere was the control group.
- taway_6PplYu5 3y ago
  I guess you weren't in Spain at the time. Or China.
- nkurz 3y ago
  I presume you are right for where you are, but I don't think your experience was universal. I live in a rural part of Vermont. My impression is that the mandates here were generally well obeyed. No restaurants were open. Grocery shopping was very limited. Public social gatherings did not happen. Whether coincidence or not, we seem to also be one of the areas with relatively low Covid deaths.
- Waterluvian 3y ago
  You clearly didn’t live where I did. Fascinating how natural it comes to us: “my experience must be everyone’s experience.”
  - dalmo3 3y ago
    Also fascinating how the multiple meanings of the word "must" apply to your quote.
- felipeerias 3y ago
  The Spanish police dispatched a helicopter to stop one person from wandering the beach by himself. https://videos.elmundo.es/v/0_djmhws8v-la-policia-baja-a-buscar-a-un-hombre-en-un-helicoptero-que-se-salto-el-confinamiento-en-una-playa https://videos.elmundo.es/v/0_djmhws8v-la-policia-baja-a-bus... https://www.levante-emv.com/safor/2020/04/13/helicoptero-policia-aterriza-playa-tavernes-11119874.html https://www.levante-emv.com/safor/2020/04/13/helicoptero-pol...
- Fradow 3y ago
  Nowhere on earth is a big statement. If you at least qualified it as "country-side" that would have been a bit more understandable (very low density making it pretty much impossible to control), but as others said, no, there are place where "stay at home" actually happen. I live in Paris, and at the height of "stay at home" mandates, it was a ghost town. I had an actual reason to get out a few times, and let me tell you there were less people outside in broad daylight than there currently is in the middle of the night, which was really eerie. There was enforcement too, since the police had pretty much nothing else to do there during the full mandates (not the latter weaker ones).
defrost 3y ago
FWiW, because it's a very unique situation globally, W.Australia a state 3x the size of Texas with a population a bit over 2 million people effectively "sheltered in place" by airlocking its borders - international and inter state flights had to quarentine, road transport on the one major transport road to the eastern state was pick up | drop off with out of state drivers quarentined, shipping through the port was non contact with crews quarentined. W.Australia's COVID-19 vaccine roll-out began 22 February 2021. The state remained isolated from 24th March 2020 until 3rd March 2022, by which time essentially every person in the state had been double vaccinated. For the most part people continued life as before, now and again the capital city would have portions "locked down" when there was an active case in order to contain spread and test potential carriers. The first active case was the 21st February 2020, contained. The first COVID death was 1st Mar 2020. Active case numbers stayed low until There was no real increase in active cases until February 2022. There was no significant increase in deaths due to COVID until March 2022. "Shelter in state until vaccinations rolled out" for a state that was already largely independant and isolated worked just fine - the deaths started once the borders opened, but at rates greatly below those seen elsewhere in the world thanks to a vaccination buffering. W.Australian cases Jan 2020 - now: https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/wa#2020 https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/wa#2020 W.Australian deaths Jan 2020 - now: https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/wa#2020 https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/wa#2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Western_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Western_A...
- moorow 3y ago
  As someone that lives in Perth, our experience as a while through COVID was actually a net positive. Not to take away from anyone who lost loved ones, but Perth basically gained the benefits of COVID (WFH shift, better health funding, better remote technologies) and very few of the negatives. It is an extremely rare situation though, and would not have been possible if it were not the most isolated capital city in the world.

vcdimension 3y ago

There's also this one: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature... which is summarised here: https://www.facebook.com/econometricsguru/posts/pfbid0wtvVjJGG69FA2R8Ahm8CfxgufbH6qVPd7U1EbSK6unAeuHcAbr9fCy4iKvM43qMjl https://www.facebook.com/econometricsguru/posts/pfbid0wtvVjJ...

ryandrake 3y ago

Almost nowhere on earth did "stay at home" actually happen. We all had these so-called mandates, but people (especially in more rural areas) pretty much did whatever the hell they wanted with no repercussions since there was almost zero enforcement. They were out and about, shopping for their khakis at "essential" businesses, eating at the restaurants who refused to closed (also with no consequence) and basically ignoring the mandates. We don't have a valid experiment group because everywhere was the control group.

taway_6PplYu5 3y ago
I guess you weren't in Spain at the time. Or China.
nkurz 3y ago
I presume you are right for where you are, but I don't think your experience was universal. I live in a rural part of Vermont. My impression is that the mandates here were generally well obeyed. No restaurants were open. Grocery shopping was very limited. Public social gatherings did not happen. Whether coincidence or not, we seem to also be one of the areas with relatively low Covid deaths.
Waterluvian 3y ago
You clearly didn’t live where I did. Fascinating how natural it comes to us: “my experience must be everyone’s experience.”
- dalmo3 3y ago
  Also fascinating how the multiple meanings of the word "must" apply to your quote.
felipeerias 3y ago
The Spanish police dispatched a helicopter to stop one person from wandering the beach by himself. https://videos.elmundo.es/v/0_djmhws8v-la-policia-baja-a-buscar-a-un-hombre-en-un-helicoptero-que-se-salto-el-confinamiento-en-una-playa https://videos.elmundo.es/v/0_djmhws8v-la-policia-baja-a-bus... https://www.levante-emv.com/safor/2020/04/13/helicoptero-policia-aterriza-playa-tavernes-11119874.html https://www.levante-emv.com/safor/2020/04/13/helicoptero-pol...
Fradow 3y ago
Nowhere on earth is a big statement. If you at least qualified it as "country-side" that would have been a bit more understandable (very low density making it pretty much impossible to control), but as others said, no, there are place where "stay at home" actually happen. I live in Paris, and at the height of "stay at home" mandates, it was a ghost town. I had an actual reason to get out a few times, and let me tell you there were less people outside in broad daylight than there currently is in the middle of the night, which was really eerie. There was enforcement too, since the police had pretty much nothing else to do there during the full mandates (not the latter weaker ones).

defrost 3y ago

FWiW, because it's a very unique situation globally, W.Australia a state 3x the size of Texas with a population a bit over 2 million people effectively "sheltered in place" by airlocking its borders - international and inter state flights had to quarentine, road transport on the one major transport road to the eastern state was pick up | drop off with out of state drivers quarentined, shipping through the port was non contact with crews quarentined. W.Australia's COVID-19 vaccine roll-out began 22 February 2021. The state remained isolated from 24th March 2020 until 3rd March 2022, by which time essentially every person in the state had been double vaccinated. For the most part people continued life as before, now and again the capital city would have portions "locked down" when there was an active case in order to contain spread and test potential carriers. The first active case was the 21st February 2020, contained. The first COVID death was 1st Mar 2020. Active case numbers stayed low until There was no real increase in active cases until February 2022. There was no significant increase in deaths due to COVID until March 2022. "Shelter in state until vaccinations rolled out" for a state that was already largely independant and isolated worked just fine - the deaths started once the borders opened, but at rates greatly below those seen elsewhere in the world thanks to a vaccination buffering. W.Australian cases Jan 2020 - now: https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/wa#2020 https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/wa#2020 W.Australian deaths Jan 2020 - now: https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/wa#2020 https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/wa#2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Western_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Western_A...

moorow 3y ago
As someone that lives in Perth, our experience as a while through COVID was actually a net positive. Not to take away from anyone who lost loved ones, but Perth basically gained the benefits of COVID (WFH shift, better health funding, better remote technologies) and very few of the negatives. It is an extremely rare situation though, and would not have been possible if it were not the most isolated capital city in the world.