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I have to nitpick Nate Silver on a tangential point here (emphasis mine) > The more complications you introduce into an analysis, the more confounding variabl

I have to nitpick Nate Silver on a tangential point here (emphasis mine) > The more complications you introduce into an analysis, the more confounding variables that you attempt to control for, the more you expand researcher degrees of freedom — in other words, decision points by the analyst about how to run the numbers. > I don’t think it’s quite right to say these decisions are arbitrary. Ideally they’ll reflect a statistician’s judgment, experience and familiarity with the subject matter. But, according to the sentence immediately following the one I highlighted, it absolutely is quite right to say those decisions are arbitrary! They are arbitrary inasmuch as they are arbitrated by the statistician's educated judgement and experience. That these decisions are arbitrary does not intrinsically strip away their value. Rather, it subordinates their value to the presumed ability of their arbiter — in this case the statistician, whom we presuppose is well trained and capable. I feel that in common parlance the word "arbitrary" is undergoing the opposite process of the term "literally". Where one word is losing its meaning by arbitrarily narrowing it down too much, the other is literally losing its meaning by making it too broad. It figuratively grinds my gears.

burkaman 3y ago
I don't think the word "arbitrary" is currently undergoing any change, it hasn't been used the way you use it in like 400+ years.
- diogenes4 3y ago
  Wait, so what does arbitrary mean to you if not "the result of a judgement or choice"? Is it just a synonym for random to you?
  - staticfloat 3y ago
    Yes, that’s what it means for me. I’ve never heard someone use the word arbitrary to mean anything other than “a random choice”, or even “a poorly thought-out choice”. My professors in grad school explicitly discouraged use of that word anywhere in technical writing, as they felt it would immediately give the reader the impression that the actions taken in the research were not thought through. Example: “This new technique enables arbitrary manipulations of data” should instead be replaced by something like “this technique enables a wide range of manipulations of data”.
    - diogenes4 3y ago
      > I’ve never heard someone use the word arbitrary to mean anything other than “a random choice”, or even “a poorly thought-out choice”. That's shocking, I use it to mean "the result of a judgement or decision" about a dozen times a day, such as "it's not random, it's arbitrary". I had no clue people had an alternative definition for it. I'm even more surprised that otherwise ostensibly-educated people have no clue about the traditional definition.
      - burkaman 3y ago
        Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way? Etymonline cites a 1640s dictionary with the present-day definition: https://www.etymonline.com/word/arbitrary https://www.etymonline.com/word/arbitrary
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        diogenes4 3y ago
        > Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way? sure, https://www.wordnik.com/words/arbitrary https://www.wordnik.com/words/arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference." is the second definition on the page. You clearly didn't even bother googling. Regardless, I'd argue that arbitrary as distinct from "random" only has one definition—the one where judgement, choice, or preference is exercised. This is the useful way to use the word, hence my shock. Especially in a technical context where the connotation of petty abuse of judgement makes no sense. Finally, there are cases where it's indistinguishable from arbitrary. For instance, if you're defining a pure computation on some integer, the distinction between arbitrary and random is meaningless. Throwing the word away (as I interpret your sentiment to argue for) seems like the worst possible interpretation and just as likely to lead to confusion.
        burkaman 3y ago
  - yashap 3y ago
    The first dictionary result when Googling says: > arbitrary (adjective) > based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system. > ex: “his mealtimes were entirely arbitrary" Natural language is imprecise, so there are many definitions, but that fits with how I interpret the word. I wouldn’t think of something like “the well researched opinion of an expert”, which certainly is the result of a judgement, as being “arbitrary”.
  - scubbo 3y ago
    Seconding, here, that I've almost-always heard arbitrary/arbitrarily to mean (slightly differently than the sibling commenter) "able to be chosen freely, without any loss of generality"; though, yes, I have also heard your usage of "by personal judgement, disregarding established rules or convention".
    - scubbo 3y ago
      In fact, I just had cause to use the term again, which prompted me to return here to describe my usage a little bit more. I was documenting a configuration file, and noted that one particular value was chosen "arbitrarily". What I meant by that (and what I am reasonably confident that my audience would understand) is that my choice of that value was not influenced by any other concerns - I did not have to make sure it matched some other value in the file (or in another configuration value), or that it conformed to some enumeration of permitted or significant values. So - yes, I was technically stating that the value was "the result of a judgement or choice", but _much more strongly_ I was stressing the fact that (personal) judgement was the _only_ factor in the selection, not conformance to other prior values, rules, or restrictions. So - not purely random, but in some sense "closer" to random than to pre-determined. I agree with you here (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37731820 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37731820) that entirely throwing away the meaning of the word "arbitrary" and making it a synonym for "random" would not be useful - but I don't think that's what's proposed. Arbitrary is (and, I believe, always has been) a word which stresses the importance of choice and judgement - but sometimes that means "strongly considered judgement was applied here to select the optimal option", and other times it can mean "any selection which you choose is probably satisfactory here - there are no hidden constraints, rules, or requirements".
  - School-Cotton 3y ago
    For me, arbitrary means something like "not constrained by rules; able to be chosen at will". An arbitrary choice doesn't have to be "random" in the strict sense of being chosen by nondeterminstic chance, although people often use "random" to mean something similar to "arbitrary" in colloquial speech. It can have good or bad connotations: "Emacs's configurability means you can extend it in arbitrary ways" is good; "Russia is known for arbitrary detention of political dissidents" is bad.

burkaman 3y ago

I don't think the word "arbitrary" is currently undergoing any change, it hasn't been used the way you use it in like 400+ years.

diogenes4 3y ago
Wait, so what does arbitrary mean to you if not "the result of a judgement or choice"? Is it just a synonym for random to you?
- staticfloat 3y ago
  Yes, that’s what it means for me. I’ve never heard someone use the word arbitrary to mean anything other than “a random choice”, or even “a poorly thought-out choice”. My professors in grad school explicitly discouraged use of that word anywhere in technical writing, as they felt it would immediately give the reader the impression that the actions taken in the research were not thought through. Example: “This new technique enables arbitrary manipulations of data” should instead be replaced by something like “this technique enables a wide range of manipulations of data”.
  - diogenes4 3y ago
    > I’ve never heard someone use the word arbitrary to mean anything other than “a random choice”, or even “a poorly thought-out choice”. That's shocking, I use it to mean "the result of a judgement or decision" about a dozen times a day, such as "it's not random, it's arbitrary". I had no clue people had an alternative definition for it. I'm even more surprised that otherwise ostensibly-educated people have no clue about the traditional definition.
    - burkaman 3y ago
      Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way? Etymonline cites a 1640s dictionary with the present-day definition: https://www.etymonline.com/word/arbitrary https://www.etymonline.com/word/arbitrary
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - diogenes4 3y ago
        > Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way? sure, https://www.wordnik.com/words/arbitrary https://www.wordnik.com/words/arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference." is the second definition on the page. You clearly didn't even bother googling. Regardless, I'd argue that arbitrary as distinct from "random" only has one definition—the one where judgement, choice, or preference is exercised. This is the useful way to use the word, hence my shock. Especially in a technical context where the connotation of petty abuse of judgement makes no sense. Finally, there are cases where it's indistinguishable from arbitrary. For instance, if you're defining a pure computation on some integer, the distinction between arbitrary and random is meaningless. Throwing the word away (as I interpret your sentiment to argue for) seems like the worst possible interpretation and just as likely to lead to confusion.
        burkaman 3y ago
- yashap 3y ago
  The first dictionary result when Googling says: > arbitrary (adjective) > based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system. > ex: “his mealtimes were entirely arbitrary" Natural language is imprecise, so there are many definitions, but that fits with how I interpret the word. I wouldn’t think of something like “the well researched opinion of an expert”, which certainly is the result of a judgement, as being “arbitrary”.
- scubbo 3y ago
  Seconding, here, that I've almost-always heard arbitrary/arbitrarily to mean (slightly differently than the sibling commenter) "able to be chosen freely, without any loss of generality"; though, yes, I have also heard your usage of "by personal judgement, disregarding established rules or convention".
  - scubbo 3y ago
    In fact, I just had cause to use the term again, which prompted me to return here to describe my usage a little bit more. I was documenting a configuration file, and noted that one particular value was chosen "arbitrarily". What I meant by that (and what I am reasonably confident that my audience would understand) is that my choice of that value was not influenced by any other concerns - I did not have to make sure it matched some other value in the file (or in another configuration value), or that it conformed to some enumeration of permitted or significant values. So - yes, I was technically stating that the value was "the result of a judgement or choice", but _much more strongly_ I was stressing the fact that (personal) judgement was the _only_ factor in the selection, not conformance to other prior values, rules, or restrictions. So - not purely random, but in some sense "closer" to random than to pre-determined. I agree with you here (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37731820 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37731820) that entirely throwing away the meaning of the word "arbitrary" and making it a synonym for "random" would not be useful - but I don't think that's what's proposed. Arbitrary is (and, I believe, always has been) a word which stresses the importance of choice and judgement - but sometimes that means "strongly considered judgement was applied here to select the optimal option", and other times it can mean "any selection which you choose is probably satisfactory here - there are no hidden constraints, rules, or requirements".
- School-Cotton 3y ago
  For me, arbitrary means something like "not constrained by rules; able to be chosen at will". An arbitrary choice doesn't have to be "random" in the strict sense of being chosen by nondeterminstic chance, although people often use "random" to mean something similar to "arbitrary" in colloquial speech. It can have good or bad connotations: "Emacs's configurability means you can extend it in arbitrary ways" is good; "Russia is known for arbitrary detention of political dissidents" is bad.