There's also the fact that for a lot of people, COVID isolation meant a precipitous decline in physical and social activity that lasted for years. We know this

There's also the fact that for a lot of people, COVID isolation meant a precipitous decline in physical and social activity that lasted for years. We know this stuff can fuck you up pretty bad both mentally and physically. Depressive symptoms and a steep decline in physical fitness is very much the expected outcome from that.