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My understanding is that Ukraine never really had a choice. The matter of Soviet nukes being stationed in Ukraine was so existential for Russia that a refusal
by mmmmmbop 3y ago
My understanding is that Ukraine never really had a choice.
The matter of Soviet nukes being stationed in Ukraine was so existential for Russia that a refusal to give up the nukes eventually would have led to a full-on invasion by Russia.
Ukraine had only been independent for a couple of years at that point, so they did not have the necessary military structures to defend themselves like they are doing this time around. The US would not have engaged in full-on war with Russia just to let Ukraine keep the nukes – at the time, nobody knew how Ukraine was going to develop, so the West preferred Ukraine giving up their nukes to avoid the scenario of a rogue post-Soviet country with nuclear weapons.
You have to remember, at the time, Ukraine was not yet seen in the West as this brave independent anti-Russia that it is perceived as today.
Finally, the Ukrainians could not have used those nuclear weapons in the hypothetical invasion. The nuclear command & control was headquartered in Russia, so the Ukrainians didn't have access to the launch codes. Even if they had somehow managed to circumvent that and actually used the nuclear weapons, that definitely would have united Russia and the West against Ukraine.
- mongol 3y agoI don't think the launch codes are what matters. It it is the fissile material. Worst case, you can build new nukes with it. Not easy, but also not impossible. I have no idea if Ukraine had a choice or not, but at the time Russia was weak and Putin was not yet in power. It could have gone in a myriad of different ways.