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I think I would still give 2:1 odds for 50 years, and better than even odds for 100 years. It's possible that what he's doing will have disproportionate knock-
by philh 15y ago
I think I would still give 2:1 odds for 50 years, and better than even odds for 100 years.
It's possible that what he's doing will have disproportionate knock-on effects. It's also possible (though I think slightly less likely) that the malaria thing would have disproportionate knock-on effects.
Also, I think "a couple of lives" is understating it. With $250,000, I would be surprised if you couldn't save 100 lives.
- Groxx 15y agoAh, sorry - the 'couple of lives' was meant to refer to what he was doing now. Hope makes a concrete difference, but it's hard to estimate how much since. With 250k to malaria vaccines, you'd end up saving a lot more.