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Maybe this isnt fair but we had demographers hired by our school district who could not reliably predict student population 2 years out. I watched them fail for
by hnburnsy 3y ago
Maybe this isnt fair but we had demographers hired by our school district who could not reliably predict student population 2 years out. I watched them fail for 15 years.
- ForHackernews 3y agoIt is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
- coding123 3y agoI would imagine they were only looking at past trends of the school district population - but the reality is the most information would be USPS address changes, data that various companies like Zillow have, and new building permits.
- eastbound 3y agoThe whole goal of science is the ability to make predictions, however small they are, about the future. Maybe with an uncertainty range.
- losteric 3y agoFailed in what sense? Completely off, or close enough (like weather forecasting)? Is it possible a school district couldn't afford the best services? Or that their goal wasn't necessarily the population number but rather an analyst of the causative forces and directional trends?
- hnburnsy 3y agoExcellent points, since school funding is student count dependent it was critical for it to be close. They mostly predicted increases but year after year it was flat or when decreasing. Maybe politics were involved, and like I said my comment probably isnt fair.
- losteric 3y agoYeah, "failing" for 15 years is a pretty good indication that those demographers are actually succeeding at what their employer wants... :) someone in the system is probably paying for data that shows growth to protect their interests (eg coverying up insolvency of teacher pensions or justifying municipal debt/bonds)
- PeterisP 3y agoIn many fields it's easier to predict the aggregate of the whole system than the quantity of any specific component. Weather, thermal behavior, and also population.
- sova 3y agoSome things are also just not predictable, like human behavior
- thaumasiotes 3y agoIf you go a level up from demography to biology, you'll see a very clear message that population might plateau, but then it will start going up again.
- hcks 3y agoJust saying something and hoping it’s true doesn’t make it true
- mensetmanusman 3y agoEconomic issues combine with demographics for school enrollment predictions, because houses become unaffordable for families pushing them out of the school district as the multi bedroom houses fill up with retirees.
- saghm 3y agoIs the implication here that if they can't get that right, they wouldn't be able to predict world population either? If so, how do you know this is an issue with demography and not just being the ones your school hired not being particularly good?
- hnburnsy 3y agoYup they might have not been good but they kept getting hired. In my mind I am thinking if they cant reliably predict a popualtion of around 5000, his could they predict the world. I get that they are apples and oranges.
- saghm 3y agoI guess I just I wouldn't expect a local school district to be paying very much for a service like that, so I wouldn't expect that the results of who they hired would represent the best of the field.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- wizofaus 3y agoSounds suspiciously like climate change deniers who think it's clever to point out we can't exactly predict tomorrow's temperature.
- Gibbon1 3y agoI would politely suggest your school district got ripped off.
- hnburnsy 3y agoI am sure they were not getting their moneys worth.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]