3 ms·
On the one hand, humans are absolute dogshit at predicting the future. I mean, the year 2100? Give me a fucking break. On the other hand, the demographic shift
by standardUser 3y ago
On the one hand, humans are absolute dogshit at predicting the future. I mean, the year 2100? Give me a fucking break. On the other hand, the demographic shift is as convincing and well-supported as any theory in all of social science.
I imagine advances in fertility technology will change the landscape of procreation in ways we cannot yet predict. It's also possible that major catastrophes could change population dynamics, not necessarily by mass deaths, but by driving some populations back along the demographic transition where having many children is once again the best strategy.
- jfengel 3y agoAlso life extension technology. Thus far it has been largely ineffective but there's no reason to think it's insoluble. Plus of course the "singularity" which, if real, could knock all predictions straight into the bin.
- sl-1 3y agoI agree, these predictions are usually just statistical inferences without any believable model. Models expect everything continuing like it is and not having any discontinuities. I personally predict that we will fuck things up and end up with huge population decline because of raising fossil fuel costs, climate change, ecosystem destabilizaion and wars. Even feedin 8 billion people is a huge ask in this declining world.