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Theoretically if AI, fusion power, asteroid mining etc. come to pass, many resources we think of as finite might become functionally unlimited. A post-scarcity
by ForHackernews 3y ago
Theoretically if AI, fusion power, asteroid mining etc. come to pass, many resources we think of as finite might become functionally unlimited. A post-scarcity society could optimise for human happiness, rather than optimising for workers to keep the machines turning.
- abeppu 3y agoThis only works if we all change our attitudes and values. But if we changed our values, we could optimize for human happiness today.
- abeppu 3y agoAlso, reframing only slightly, to a preindustrial person who spent all their time producing calories or spinning/weaving fiber for clothes, we're a post-scarcity society. We have so many calories it's making us sick and so much clothing we have to export discarded unused clothes. That hasn't meant we stopped chasing ever greater wealth just bc we can more than supply our needs. We just find more and more extravagant things to want. Once we have asteroid mining, a generation of wealthy people will want their own space stations, or fusion-driven space craft or something.
- Beijinger 3y agoNope https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes. " And Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html https://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy...
- Retric 3y agoTrack the total energy used by humanity and it’s almost all sunlight used to grow plants the same way it’s been used for thousands of years. It looks nothing like the 2.3% exponential curve pulled out of a hat by that article. There’s little reason to suspect future advanced societies will even vaguely approach a 0.1% increase in total energy demand per year when human population stalls out. Nobody wants to heat their house to 10,000f or cool to cryogenic temperatures. Energy demand is therefore simply a question of technological progress and rates of growth in energy use is surprisingly slow for the top economies.
- cscurmudgeon 3y agoNope Reminds of the NYT article on the impossibility of flight.
- fastneutron 3y agoCare to elaborate? Are you envisioning some decoupling of energy and economic growth?
- zeroonetwothree 3y agoThe chart at the beginning already shows we don’t fit the trend anymore. So the whole premise is nonsense
- ForHackernews 3y agoShades of https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ > The merciless growth illustrated above means that in 1400 years from now, any source of energy we harness would have to outshine the sun. Cool, we can worry about this in 1000 years? This article is silly because the whole point of the OP is that population growth will not continue, so it's reasonable to assume that energy consumption will also plateau.
- PeterisP 3y agoThat 2012 article is obsolete, as GDP and energy usage has now been decoupled in advanced economies (e.g. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling) as nowadays improved consumer goods tend to require less physical resources than the earlier devices they replace, and various physical services get replaced with software.