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> Fertility rate could be trivially boosted through policy measures and we aren't seeing those, because they don't care. Totally false. It can be argued that t
by cableshaft 3y ago
> Fertility rate could be trivially boosted through policy measures and we aren't seeing those, because they don't care.
Totally false. It can be argued that they're not doing enough, but they are definitely trying.
December 14, 2022: "The Japanese government is planning to provide an additional 80,000 yen (€556, $592) to couples who have a child as Tokyo looks for ways to halt the alarming decline in the nation's birth rate."[1]
January 24, 2023: "Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.
...The government has launched various initiatives to address the population decline over the past few decades, including new policies to enhance child care services and improve housing facilities for families with children. Some rural towns have even begun paying couples who live there to have children."[2]
June 1, 2023: "Japan is investing around 3.5 trillion yen in a push to increase the number of children. The country's acute population problem is getting worse quicker than expected.
Parents will be entitled to a monthly allowance will of some 15,000 yen —about $107 dollars — for each child from newborn to two years old. There will then be 10,000 yen for children from the age of three and older, with the coverage expanded to include children in senior high school.
The government also plans to open up nursery school or day-care center places to children, even if their parents do not have jobs.
It will raise childcare leave benefits, starting in the fiscal year 2025, so disposable family incomes remain unchanged for up to four weeks even when both parents take leave.
The measures also include increasing paid parental leave and providing subsidies for fertility treatments.
"[3]
[1]: https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-rates-work/a-64091588 https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-ra...
[2]: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate-population-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate...
[3]: https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-into-raising-birth-rate/a-65797259 https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-i...
- slothtrop 3y agoFair enough, but the low hanging fruit I see is not a lack of money, but a lack of time. The expectations placed on workers, on top of raising a family, is ridiculous, but they won't budge. For all alarmist rhetoric, the government certainly isn't behaving as though it's an emergency.
- zeroonetwothree 3y agoTo be fair those numbers are tiny. The NPV to society of a new baby is probably more like $500k. I would guess if we paid $500k for a baby it would be quite effective
- ivalm 3y agoEven if instead of NPV they simply paid lost wages/opportunity cost then it would be something. In Japan there is a lot of discrimination against young women because of fear they will go on maternity leave/not stick around. As a result, women don’t get promoted/hired, and if they do get pregnant are minimally accommodated. If we want to encourage women having children we need to compensate all the negative consequences they face in the workplace, and that’s tens of thousands of dollar per year.
- lotsofpulp 3y agoThe problem with that approach is a simple $500k payment does not result in a productive adult. It takes years and years of hard work and sacrifice to end up with the type of adults you want. You will get the people you least want to be parents pumping out kids for $500k. I don’t think this is a problem solvable with cash.
- ivalm 3y agoFrom what I understand the problem is discrimination in the workplace that young women, and especially mothers, suffer. If a woman sees children as a block to her personal success then a little bit of money (and it is a little, compared to lost wages) won’t help.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Empact 3y agoHave you seen evidence that less discrimination at work leads to higher fertility?
- EliRivers 3y agoHere's one paper about Poland; "These data reveal that discriminatory practices by employers against pregnant women and women with small children are decisive in women’s decisions to postpone or forego childbearing." https://www.jstor.org/stable/26349356 https://www.jstor.org/stable/26349356
- kweingar 3y agoAnd yet there is still widespread discrimination against immigrants. If Japan is consumed by this crisis, it will be by their own stubbornness
- WD40forRust 3y ago>discrimination against immigrants ... aka not being demographically suicidal.
- dron57 3y agoTheir current track is not demographically suicidal?
- tuatoru 3y agoI think you mean favouring their own ethnicity (which is fantastically narrowly defined, socially, in Japan. If one of your grandparents was Korean and the other three Japanese, you're mostly treated as Not A Real Japanese Person by Japanese who know. Which affects promotion prospects, for a start.) "Favouring your own ethnicity" has a simpler name...
- cableshaft 3y agoI think you're suggesting racist, but they seem to be more xenophobic.
- ffgjgf1 3y ago$500 plus $100 a month is basically nothing