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Japan is not on fire, and their GDP and population growth has been stagnant a long time. They have an aging population, but they won't live forever. Fertility r

Japan is not on fire, and their GDP and population growth has been stagnant a long time. They have an aging population, but they won't live forever. Fertility rate could be trivially boosted through policy measures and we aren't seeing those, because they don't care.

cableshaft 3y ago
> Fertility rate could be trivially boosted through policy measures and we aren't seeing those, because they don't care. Totally false. It can be argued that they're not doing enough, but they are definitely trying. December 14, 2022: "The Japanese government is planning to provide an additional 80,000 yen (€556, $592) to couples who have a child as Tokyo looks for ways to halt the alarming decline in the nation's birth rate."[1] January 24, 2023: "Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate. ...The government has launched various initiatives to address the population decline over the past few decades, including new policies to enhance child care services and improve housing facilities for families with children. Some rural towns have even begun paying couples who live there to have children."[2] June 1, 2023: "Japan is investing around 3.5 trillion yen in a push to increase the number of children. The country's acute population problem is getting worse quicker than expected. Parents will be entitled to a monthly allowance will of some 15,000 yen —about $107 dollars — for each child from newborn to two years old. There will then be 10,000 yen for children from the age of three and older, with the coverage expanded to include children in senior high school. The government also plans to open up nursery school or day-care center places to children, even if their parents do not have jobs. It will raise childcare leave benefits, starting in the fiscal year 2025, so disposable family incomes remain unchanged for up to four weeks even when both parents take leave. The measures also include increasing paid parental leave and providing subsidies for fertility treatments. "[3] [1]: https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-rates-work/a-64091588 https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-ra... [2]: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate-population-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate... [3]: https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-into-raising-birth-rate/a-65797259 https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-i...
- slothtrop 3y ago
  Fair enough, but the low hanging fruit I see is not a lack of money, but a lack of time. The expectations placed on workers, on top of raising a family, is ridiculous, but they won't budge. For all alarmist rhetoric, the government certainly isn't behaving as though it's an emergency.
- zeroonetwothree 3y ago
  To be fair those numbers are tiny. The NPV to society of a new baby is probably more like $500k. I would guess if we paid $500k for a baby it would be quite effective
  - ivalm 3y ago
    Even if instead of NPV they simply paid lost wages/opportunity cost then it would be something. In Japan there is a lot of discrimination against young women because of fear they will go on maternity leave/not stick around. As a result, women don’t get promoted/hired, and if they do get pregnant are minimally accommodated. If we want to encourage women having children we need to compensate all the negative consequences they face in the workplace, and that’s tens of thousands of dollar per year.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    The problem with that approach is a simple $500k payment does not result in a productive adult. It takes years and years of hard work and sacrifice to end up with the type of adults you want. You will get the people you least want to be parents pumping out kids for $500k. I don’t think this is a problem solvable with cash.
- ivalm 3y ago
  From what I understand the problem is discrimination in the workplace that young women, and especially mothers, suffer. If a woman sees children as a block to her personal success then a little bit of money (and it is a little, compared to lost wages) won’t help.
  - deleted 3y ago
alfor 3y ago
Many countries have tried to boost it, so far nothing seem to work. It’s a cultural thing and once it shift it doesn’t come back easily. You would have to convince modern woman to stay at home and have 3+ child and you need most of them to do so. Without return to traditional values that is not going to happen.
- WD40forRust 3y ago
  I'd confidently venture to guess the only times throughout history this is arrested is when either a Patriarchal foreign group conquers, or when a Patriarchal ideological minority gains influence with their population increases.
concordDance 3y ago
There isn't a good way to boost fertility that I know of. The Nordics with very generous maternity leave and social safety net have a lower fertility rate than the USA.
- epcoa 3y ago
  Keeping a populace dumb and uneducated works pretty well.
  - willcipriano 3y ago
    On the other side of the coin a society without children allows its members the freedom to be obese and mentally ill.
- wslh 3y ago
  I don't think fertility rate is something good or bad, I think people are very conservative (beyond its political sympathy) because change opens for uncertainty. It does not matter if it is about drugs, fertility, AI or diversity. Ergo, in many societies we live thinking that we are always progressing towards positive outcomes when the long term reality is more random.
- landemva 3y ago
  .cz has been increasing births by tweaks to public policy/spend. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CZE/czechia/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CZE/czechia/fertility-...
  - hyperhopper 3y ago
    A TLD has been increasing birth rates?!? Surprising!
  - kbelder 3y ago
    By allowing more than one children? What a generous State.
- johnnymorgan 3y ago

cableshaft 3y ago

> Fertility rate could be trivially boosted through policy measures and we aren't seeing those, because they don't care. Totally false. It can be argued that they're not doing enough, but they are definitely trying. December 14, 2022: "The Japanese government is planning to provide an additional 80,000 yen (€556, $592) to couples who have a child as Tokyo looks for ways to halt the alarming decline in the nation's birth rate."[1] January 24, 2023: "Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate. ...The government has launched various initiatives to address the population decline over the past few decades, including new policies to enhance child care services and improve housing facilities for families with children. Some rural towns have even begun paying couples who live there to have children."[2] June 1, 2023: "Japan is investing around 3.5 trillion yen in a push to increase the number of children. The country's acute population problem is getting worse quicker than expected. Parents will be entitled to a monthly allowance will of some 15,000 yen —about $107 dollars — for each child from newborn to two years old. There will then be 10,000 yen for children from the age of three and older, with the coverage expanded to include children in senior high school. The government also plans to open up nursery school or day-care center places to children, even if their parents do not have jobs. It will raise childcare leave benefits, starting in the fiscal year 2025, so disposable family incomes remain unchanged for up to four weeks even when both parents take leave. The measures also include increasing paid parental leave and providing subsidies for fertility treatments. "[3] [1]: https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-rates-work/a-64091588 https://www.dw.com/en/will-japans-new-plan-to-boost-birth-ra... [2]: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate-population-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate... [3]: https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-into-raising-birth-rate/a-65797259 https://www.dw.com/en/japan-to-channel-billions-of-dollars-i...

slothtrop 3y ago
Fair enough, but the low hanging fruit I see is not a lack of money, but a lack of time. The expectations placed on workers, on top of raising a family, is ridiculous, but they won't budge. For all alarmist rhetoric, the government certainly isn't behaving as though it's an emergency.
zeroonetwothree 3y ago
To be fair those numbers are tiny. The NPV to society of a new baby is probably more like $500k. I would guess if we paid $500k for a baby it would be quite effective
- ivalm 3y ago
  Even if instead of NPV they simply paid lost wages/opportunity cost then it would be something. In Japan there is a lot of discrimination against young women because of fear they will go on maternity leave/not stick around. As a result, women don’t get promoted/hired, and if they do get pregnant are minimally accommodated. If we want to encourage women having children we need to compensate all the negative consequences they face in the workplace, and that’s tens of thousands of dollar per year.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  The problem with that approach is a simple $500k payment does not result in a productive adult. It takes years and years of hard work and sacrifice to end up with the type of adults you want. You will get the people you least want to be parents pumping out kids for $500k. I don’t think this is a problem solvable with cash.
ivalm 3y ago
From what I understand the problem is discrimination in the workplace that young women, and especially mothers, suffer. If a woman sees children as a block to her personal success then a little bit of money (and it is a little, compared to lost wages) won’t help.
- deleted 3y ago

alfor 3y ago

Many countries have tried to boost it, so far nothing seem to work. It’s a cultural thing and once it shift it doesn’t come back easily. You would have to convince modern woman to stay at home and have 3+ child and you need most of them to do so. Without return to traditional values that is not going to happen.

WD40forRust 3y ago
I'd confidently venture to guess the only times throughout history this is arrested is when either a Patriarchal foreign group conquers, or when a Patriarchal ideological minority gains influence with their population increases.

concordDance 3y ago

There isn't a good way to boost fertility that I know of. The Nordics with very generous maternity leave and social safety net have a lower fertility rate than the USA.

epcoa 3y ago
Keeping a populace dumb and uneducated works pretty well.
- willcipriano 3y ago
  On the other side of the coin a society without children allows its members the freedom to be obese and mentally ill.
wslh 3y ago
I don't think fertility rate is something good or bad, I think people are very conservative (beyond its political sympathy) because change opens for uncertainty. It does not matter if it is about drugs, fertility, AI or diversity. Ergo, in many societies we live thinking that we are always progressing towards positive outcomes when the long term reality is more random.
landemva 3y ago
.cz has been increasing births by tweaks to public policy/spend. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CZE/czechia/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CZE/czechia/fertility-...
- hyperhopper 3y ago
  A TLD has been increasing birth rates?!? Surprising!
- kbelder 3y ago
  By allowing more than one children? What a generous State.
johnnymorgan 3y ago