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A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since the

by bojan 3y ago

A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since then, since the current governing parties are in power, there hasn't been anything done. They don't care. For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture. My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country. I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.

alephnerd 3y ago
I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s
- bojan 3y ago
  While wishing you are right, I honestly doubt it. I think the situation is more like in Russia, where the loyalty to Putin is absolute and the powerful people try to make do in whatever situation he throws on them. Don't forget, this isn't Vučić's first rodeo. He was already a part of the government that plunged the country in war against NATO back in 1999. He already proved he's willing to do it.
  - tboughen 3y ago
    Very true. Though he must have personally known Slobodan Milošević, who died after 6 years of UN detention.
- csomar 3y ago
  Economic damage is not necessarily bad if it’ll hurt your political opponents. Suddenly, the guy who doesn’t have a good grip like Putin has a pretty decent one. In a very short amount of time.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    It hurts everyone when 70-75% of all trade happens with NATO+ members - countries that Serbia would directly be in a state of war with if they enter Kosovo and break the Kumanova Agreement. Even Russia never had that level of dependency on NATO+ trade partners before 2022 or before 2014.
    - baybal2 3y ago
      Russian trade volume was 57% NATO members before the war, and close to 80 if you count Western allies.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        I'm just counting NATO, EU, and Montenegro. 70-75% of all trade in Serbia was from NATO, EU, and Montenegro, which is still significant.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- littlestymaar 3y ago
  Not even necessarily a coup and no need to look to far away. In 1999, Serbian troupes eventually accepted to leave Kosovo because the economic elites was being hurt by NATO bombardment of critical infrastructures [1]. [1]: https://nitter.net/mewalters101/status/1579936624703868928#m https://nitter.net/mewalters101/status/1579936624703868928#m
acqq 3y ago
> northern Kosova Readers should note that the above post used the _Albanian_ form of this name, and compare with the Britannica's reference: https://www.britannica.com/place/Kosovo https://www.britannica.com/place/Kosovo "The name Kosovo is derived from a Serbian place-name meaning “field of blackbirds.” After serving as the centre of a medieval Serbian empire, Kosovo was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from the mid-15th to the early 20th century, a period when Islam grew in importance and the population of Albanian speakers in the region increased." Then research the political background behind the recent use of "Kosova" form. Also: BBC: "Kosovo: Why is violence flaring between ethnic Serbs and Albanians?" https://www.bbc.com/news/62382069 https://www.bbc.com/news/62382069
- bojan 3y ago
  > northern Kosova Yes, because that's how autocorrect chose to end the word and I was too lazy to return and correct it. The apparent declining quality of keyboards available on Android is a completely another story. Anyway, if you read carefully what I wrote, you'll see the text is full of small grammar mistakes very typical for Slavic native speakers. I am who I say I am.
  - acqq 3y ago
    If it wasn't clear enough: your ethnicity, whether claimed or factual doesn't make your claims more or less valid. The choice of names, however, reflects in this case a political side of a writer. Even if the cause is mere "autocorrect" I still claim the autocorrect sublimes your political views correctly, and I never claimed that you hide them. On the contrary, they can't be more obvious, inviting literal occupation: "I just hope NATO ... actually go all the way and occupies the country." Inviting a war is a terrible position, good only for those who, ignoring all the bodies of the victims, profit from them. Long term, neither war inside own borders nor occupation resulted in the net benefit of the attacked and/or occupied nations. Any claims to the opposite stem from the specific political agenda, which I invite the readers to be aware of in discussions with political consequences.
    - cycrutchfield 3y ago
zackees 3y ago
[dead]
radiator 3y ago
> A Serbian emigrant here... > I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country Yeah, it is good that you are no longer in Serbia, but you should stop calling yourself Serbian because you very clearly are not.

by bojan 3y ago

alephnerd 3y ago

I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s

bojan 3y ago
While wishing you are right, I honestly doubt it. I think the situation is more like in Russia, where the loyalty to Putin is absolute and the powerful people try to make do in whatever situation he throws on them. Don't forget, this isn't Vučić's first rodeo. He was already a part of the government that plunged the country in war against NATO back in 1999. He already proved he's willing to do it.
- tboughen 3y ago
  Very true. Though he must have personally known Slobodan Milošević, who died after 6 years of UN detention.
csomar 3y ago
Economic damage is not necessarily bad if it’ll hurt your political opponents. Suddenly, the guy who doesn’t have a good grip like Putin has a pretty decent one. In a very short amount of time.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  It hurts everyone when 70-75% of all trade happens with NATO+ members - countries that Serbia would directly be in a state of war with if they enter Kosovo and break the Kumanova Agreement. Even Russia never had that level of dependency on NATO+ trade partners before 2022 or before 2014.
  - baybal2 3y ago
    Russian trade volume was 57% NATO members before the war, and close to 80 if you count Western allies.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      I'm just counting NATO, EU, and Montenegro. 70-75% of all trade in Serbia was from NATO, EU, and Montenegro, which is still significant.
baybal2 3y ago
[dead]
littlestymaar 3y ago
Not even necessarily a coup and no need to look to far away. In 1999, Serbian troupes eventually accepted to leave Kosovo because the economic elites was being hurt by NATO bombardment of critical infrastructures [1]. [1]: https://nitter.net/mewalters101/status/1579936624703868928#m https://nitter.net/mewalters101/status/1579936624703868928#m

acqq 3y ago

> northern Kosova Readers should note that the above post used the _Albanian_ form of this name, and compare with the Britannica's reference: https://www.britannica.com/place/Kosovo https://www.britannica.com/place/Kosovo "The name Kosovo is derived from a Serbian place-name meaning “field of blackbirds.” After serving as the centre of a medieval Serbian empire, Kosovo was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from the mid-15th to the early 20th century, a period when Islam grew in importance and the population of Albanian speakers in the region increased." Then research the political background behind the recent use of "Kosova" form. Also: BBC: "Kosovo: Why is violence flaring between ethnic Serbs and Albanians?" https://www.bbc.com/news/62382069 https://www.bbc.com/news/62382069

bojan 3y ago
> northern Kosova Yes, because that's how autocorrect chose to end the word and I was too lazy to return and correct it. The apparent declining quality of keyboards available on Android is a completely another story. Anyway, if you read carefully what I wrote, you'll see the text is full of small grammar mistakes very typical for Slavic native speakers. I am who I say I am.
- acqq 3y ago
  If it wasn't clear enough: your ethnicity, whether claimed or factual doesn't make your claims more or less valid. The choice of names, however, reflects in this case a political side of a writer. Even if the cause is mere "autocorrect" I still claim the autocorrect sublimes your political views correctly, and I never claimed that you hide them. On the contrary, they can't be more obvious, inviting literal occupation: "I just hope NATO ... actually go all the way and occupies the country." Inviting a war is a terrible position, good only for those who, ignoring all the bodies of the victims, profit from them. Long term, neither war inside own borders nor occupation resulted in the net benefit of the attacked and/or occupied nations. Any claims to the opposite stem from the specific political agenda, which I invite the readers to be aware of in discussions with political consequences.
  - cycrutchfield 3y ago

zackees 3y ago

[dead]

radiator 3y ago

> A Serbian emigrant here... > I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country Yeah, it is good that you are no longer in Serbia, but you should stop calling yourself Serbian because you very clearly are not.