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HN is so bad at predictions. Just a few months ago HN was awash with comments that confidently claimed LLMs were no more than stochastic parrots and unlikely to

HN is so bad at predictions. Just a few months ago HN was awash with comments that confidently claimed LLMs were no more than stochastic parrots and unlikely to amount to anything. > I can't help but think the next AI winter is around the corner. [0] Yeah, right. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23886325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23886325

ResearchCode 3y ago
Who claimed management consultants are not stochastic parrots?
famouswaffles 3y ago
Being bad at predictions is ok. It's the absolute lack of re-calibration that does me in. If you make a hilariously bad prediction then that tells you your model about that thing is off and needs correcting. So if you do nothing to that model and still make predictions...
Xcelerate 3y ago
We’re going to have legit AGI that can outperform humans in every way and HN will still find something to complain about. I love the tech news on here, but the constant cynicism on everything is exhausting.
- maxdoop 3y ago
  “It’s AGI, but does it really understand anything? And I can’t even load the AGI info my Linux mainframe — how useless . Just another crypto wave.”
- ResearchCode 3y ago
  Have "AGI" outperform truck drivers first. They said autonomous trucks would replace all truck drivers by 2018.
refurb 3y ago
I'm not sure this paper is proof of much? Regurgitating press releases is sort of a stochastic parrot task.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
toxik 3y ago
That comment is going to go down as a HN hall of fame like that guy who said Dropbox is trivially replaced by rsync or something.
- olalonde 3y ago
  Probably. I have a habit of bookmarkung predictions I see on HN to revisit them later and most of those related to LLMs are aging very badly.
  - ResearchCode 3y ago
    The claim that large language models would replace software engineers this year is aging very badly.
    - olalonde 3y ago
      Indeed. If you have a link, I'll bookmark it.
sarchertech 3y ago
That comment also said: >If we're looking for a cost-effective way to replace content marketing spam... great! We've succeeded! And if you read the article that’s almost exactly the level of output that we’re talking about. - Propose at least 10 ideas for a new shoe targeting an underserved market or sport. - Segment the footwear industry market based on users. - Draft a press release marketing copy for your product. - Pen an inspirational memo to employees detailing why your product would outshine competitors. Also for the 2nd task the non LLM group performed significantly better.
barrysteve 3y ago
Wrong animal. Stochastic horses.

ResearchCode 3y ago

Who claimed management consultants are not stochastic parrots?

famouswaffles 3y ago

Being bad at predictions is ok. It's the absolute lack of re-calibration that does me in. If you make a hilariously bad prediction then that tells you your model about that thing is off and needs correcting. So if you do nothing to that model and still make predictions...

Xcelerate 3y ago

We’re going to have legit AGI that can outperform humans in every way and HN will still find something to complain about. I love the tech news on here, but the constant cynicism on everything is exhausting.

maxdoop 3y ago
“It’s AGI, but does it really understand anything? And I can’t even load the AGI info my Linux mainframe — how useless . Just another crypto wave.”
ResearchCode 3y ago
Have "AGI" outperform truck drivers first. They said autonomous trucks would replace all truck drivers by 2018.

refurb 3y ago

I'm not sure this paper is proof of much? Regurgitating press releases is sort of a stochastic parrot task.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

toxik 3y ago

That comment is going to go down as a HN hall of fame like that guy who said Dropbox is trivially replaced by rsync or something.

olalonde 3y ago
Probably. I have a habit of bookmarkung predictions I see on HN to revisit them later and most of those related to LLMs are aging very badly.
- ResearchCode 3y ago
  The claim that large language models would replace software engineers this year is aging very badly.
  - olalonde 3y ago
    Indeed. If you have a link, I'll bookmark it.

sarchertech 3y ago

That comment also said: >If we're looking for a cost-effective way to replace content marketing spam... great! We've succeeded! And if you read the article that’s almost exactly the level of output that we’re talking about. - Propose at least 10 ideas for a new shoe targeting an underserved market or sport. - Segment the footwear industry market based on users. - Draft a press release marketing copy for your product. - Pen an inspirational memo to employees detailing why your product would outshine competitors. Also for the 2nd task the non LLM group performed significantly better.

barrysteve 3y ago

Wrong animal. Stochastic horses.