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White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border

149 points by perihelions 3y ago

noncoml 3y ago
“My troops are merely passing by”
- WhatsName 3y ago
  "We are just doing an exercise"
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
boeingUH60 3y ago
Oops, please not again…
- techdragon 3y ago
  Literally my first thought upon reading the headline… “oh not this shit again”…. I mean really I know tensions can simmer for decades but seriously I thought this was one place that after all the breakups and border redefining we had some kind of lasting if somewhat tenuous peace…
  - xxs 3y ago
    >one place that after all the breakups and border redefining we had some kind of lasting if somewhat tenuous peace… The Balkans?! Where each country borders its own borders/territories of old. I don't think the conflict would escalate, though.
    - techdragon 3y ago
      I mean yeah, I knew it wasn’t “settled” but it had the feel of the bar/pub fight just after the owner brings out the baseball bat and everyone quickly realised it’s a good idea to stop punching… everyone still has some grudges but they mostly got it out of their system and until someone actively starts some new shit… no one feels particularly compelled to start a fight themselves… its the “grumbling about grievances you don’t quite feel strongly enough to start a fight over” not the “I’ve got a knife on me and I’m trying to stir someone else up to start the fight so no one pins it on me”.
      - xxs 3y ago
        >everyone quickly realised it’s a good idea to stop punching… The Balkans have been boiling for ~1400 years or so (more if you include Macedonia's claim on Alexander the Great's empire). Modern day (19th century) massacres of thousands of people originate on the Balkans, too... no idea how/when it might be over.
    - RetroTechie 3y ago
      More like Europe in general. There is hardly a country in Europe that wasn't in a number of wars and/or its borders redefined several times. Europe's history is full of clashes between & within its states.
  - willcipriano 3y ago
    Ah young Willie McBride, I can't help wonder why Do those that lie here know why did they die? And did they believe when they answered the cause Did they really believe that this war would end wars? Well the sorrow, the suffering, the glory, the pain The killing and dying, were all done in vain For young Willie McBride, it all happened again And again, and again, and again, and again
    - secfirstmd 3y ago
      Love this Furies song. Great one for singing over a trad session in Dublin
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- 3seashells 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - johndunne 3y ago
    Blowing up all places of worship is one of the core tenets thats the root of the problem there. How about enabling future generations the space to respect each others principles and not have the 2/3/4 enemies fermenting troubles.
    - demondemidi 3y ago
      Fomenting
      - impish9208 3y ago
        Fermenting troubles does sound better than fomenting them
        demondemidi 3y ago
        True. I picture shady little microbes with shifty eyes.
    - techdragon 3y ago
      The balkans is one of the places I feel needs to just go for the lots of “city states” with alliances and treaties between them as they individually desire… I genuinely don’t know how they can really draw a map around any relatively “country sized” contiguous area (yes I know some countries are tiny Im suggesting they need a lot of such tiny countries, I’m talking about areas roughly the size of the current countries or a bit smaller or larger) … and hope to use the new borders to somehow settle things… the area is basically fractured like some bad sci-fi or cyberpunk city where there’s an overall “city” but every neighbourhood or two is vastly different… like this Chinatown is the recent immigrants Chinatown, then there’s little Italy, then you’ve got Japantown, oh now it’s the mixed Anglo suburb, oh now it’s the Chinatown for immigrants who’ve been here for over a hundred years and who have a very different culture to the recent immigrants, oh and now it’s little Russia and here’s little Vietnam…. There’s no stitching this together properly without making it worse… let the mess break up into tiny countries with borders they are happy with, kick anyone that wants to control too much surrounding territory (as in they think someone else’s city state shouldn’t exist) square in the head and just protect the lot with either a permanent NATO presence or use it as the excuse to give Frontex the EU’s common border and coast guard a sibling and actually make a damn Army of the European Union, have some fun with the name even, the European Union Defence Forces doesn’t sound too bad in French either, “Forces dē défense de l’Union Européenne” FDUE, EUDF, im just using Google translate so I’m sure some actual French speaking people could probably come up with another clever NATO style name where the acronym is the same in French…
alephnerd 3y ago
It will deescalate. KFOR, the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, has gotten a larger troop deployment in the last week [0]. Serbian soldiers crossing into Kosovo is a clear violation of the Kumanova Agreement AND unlike Russia-Ukraine they will be de facto declaring war against the US and NATO due to the American and EU boots on the ground, and bye bye 25 years of work to try and join the EU. It's just election posturing by Serbia, as Vucic promised calling a snap election in the coming weeks in the aftermath of a mass shooting in May 2023 [1] destroying his popularity and sparking mass protests reminiscent of Euromaidan and Gezi Park. [0] - https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo-prime-minister-albin-kurti-banjska-tensions-serbia-rise/ https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-snap-election-2023-aleksandr-vucic-mass-shootings-protests/ https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-snap-election-2023-al...
- bojan 3y ago
  A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since then, since the current governing parties are in power, there hasn't been anything done. They don't care. For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture. My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country. I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s
knodi 3y ago
[flagged]
- peter_retief 3y ago
  Nato and the US are very weak at the moment, not sure what asset you could be referring to?
  - johnchristopher 3y ago
    Probably Trump (as in "Russian asset").
  - voidfunc 3y ago
    Trump
    - peter_retief 3y ago
      I initially thought that but assumed the level of discourse on HN was a bit higher than that :)
      - johnchristopher 3y ago
        It should at least be high enough not to down vote comments explaining/pointing that "asset" in this context most likely refers to Trump. Oh, well.
        peter_retief 3y ago
        Well I voted you up to cancel the down vote, thanks for the answer. PSYOP's seems to have degraded common sense. Remember Marcus Aurelius who wrote about 2202 years ago “Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”
      - the_only_law 3y ago
        > but assumed the level of discourse on HN was a bit higher than that :) You know what they say about assuming…
0dayz 3y ago
This is really playing with fire by the Serbian government, and I don't think I can understand their strategy if it involves trying to force out kfor. I'm also very concerned about Bosnia situation where similar nonsense is brewing up. What I find even more laughable is that Serbia could have been the majority player in the region if they weren't just doing imperialism.
- xxs 3y ago
  For Serbia to be anywhere a remotely important player would need to join the EU - looks at the former Yugoslavia states - Croatia and Slovenia (which Serbia had wars with), they are doing way better. However, if Serbs are to the EU, they would have to fall in-line, so ain't gonna happen (become a player)
  - BrandoElFollito 3y ago
    They would have to fall in line until they join. After that it will be one more country to pull the EU in its direction. I am very much pro-European but the way the organization works is not viable. Particularly the requirement to have agreement from everyone on everything is not scalable.
    - hutzlibu 3y ago
      "Particularly the requirement to have agreement from everyone on everything is not scalable." So far it mostly works, no? I really do not want the EU to become a unionized state that engages in imperialism. My main problem with the EU is the lack of transparency and democracy.
      - BrandoElFollito 3y ago
        > So far it mostly works, no? Not really. It works in some cases but globally you have laws that are not applied in countries because it is how it works. I am not an economist and would love to see hard numbers about how the EU in its current constitution is better than having the core members alone. I am in France and see that we are a net payer which does not make me happy. Not because we pay, but rather because how countries that receive this money use it.
3seashells 3y ago
Stirring up shit for Russia. Next level.
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  I don't think there's any relation to the war in Ukraine. There just isn't really a mechanism for one to influence the other.
  - gonzo41 3y ago
    Yes there is. Western and EU attention will pivot to Kosovo. This could undermine the focus and resolve the of the west with Ukraine.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    Distracting NATO with a second conflict doesn't influence the first? Come on.
    - cycrutchfield 3y ago
      NATO could send Serbia back to the Stone Age with their pinky finger. If anything, a second military conflict in Eastern Europe might further increase support and military budget in NATO countries.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        > NATO could send Serbia back to the Stone Age with their pinky finger. Yes, nuclear genocide is indeed quick, but not super viable. Even the limited air strikes in 1999 took months, and pretending it wouldn't all be a diplomatic and military distraction is just silly.
        cycrutchfield 3y ago
        Nobody said anything about nukes.
lousken 3y ago
seems like two dogs barking https://old.reddit.com/r/serbia/comments/16vlpkv/napadi_na_srbe_na_kosovu_samo_ovog_meseca_photo/?limit=500&sort=top https://old.reddit.com/r/serbia/comments/16vlpkv/napadi_na_s...
- alephnerd 3y ago
  It's election season in Serbia, and the ruling president Vucic (basically a Serbian Erdogan) might actually lose.
MightyBuzzard 3y ago
[dead]
andrewstuart 3y ago
Here we go again more war. Never stops.
cf141q5325 3y ago
Its worth mentioning that there is a second perspective to this being a matter of EU/NATO vs Serbia. Aljazeera had an interesting opinion piece framing it as Kosovo getting dropped to achieve Serbian integration into the western block https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-still-want-a-democratic-kosovo https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-s... Cant say anything about the plausibility but the references to EU sanctions against Kosovo and the former president of Kosovo being currently on trial in the Hague are interesting points. Non opinion piece on the background https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standoff-with-serbs-continues-15-years-after-statehood https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standof... Would be happy to hear from anyone familiar with that perspective, it was news to me. But pressuring Kosovo to play ball in the negotiations doesnt seem to be out of the question?
- bojan 3y ago
  This is from before the latest events. Since then Serbia has escalated the situation. The current President of Kosovo is a hard-liner that refuses to implement agreement made before he got elected. He is being rightly pressured on that point, even though I understand and even partially agree with his reasons. Thaci is also on trial with a good reason. There are a lot of indications he did commit crimes. It's a good thing the matter will be put to rest one way or another. So they aren't really pressuring Kosovo, they are being neutralan, trying to get both sides to co-operate using the few tools they have on their disposal.
boomskats 3y ago
It's a shitshow on both sides. On the one side, the Serbian president is exactly what the rest of the comments here describe him as, and worse. The situation would be infinitely better if he recognised Kosovo and moved on. Instead, he keeps the question open purely for his own political advantage, ensuring that the tensions remain at the expense of the people. On the other side, Kosovo is a military industrial complex puppet state that they've cut ties with/lost control of (intentionally or otherwise). It has been ramping up its opportunistic bullying and provocative abuse of the minority population in the north, who as of last year have no representation at all in local government, and are pretty helpless. The unfortunate victims at this point in time are the minority Serbs in northern Kosovo, and more widely, the general Serbian population, who just like in the case of Brexit are being held hostage by their predominantly older, state-owned TV-watching, voting population who overwhelmingly vote for Vucic. Meanwhile, weapons have been flooding into the region from both the east and the west at alarming rates for the last couple of years, so he must be useful to someone. Nobody wants this, but war is money, so here we are.
- matusp 3y ago
  It's as if creating a new state from a thin air without any consideration for the ethnical minorities that will stay there was a bad idea. The problem here is that US politics in the region was never meant to create peace, it was meant to get influence and push Russia out. The solutions for both Kosovo and Bosnia were pretty obviously leading to failed state territory from the get go and the whole region will be devastated by these decisions in the decades to come.
  - brnt 3y ago
    Especially Bosnia, there was very much no correlation between territory and ethnicity, so the difficulty is built in. I don't know if this was much better in Kosovo, it does seem like that sliver of mostly Serbians are on the wrong side of the border, but since this is, you know, the Balkans, I expect the answer to be more complicated than a simple "America did what was in it's best interest". Pushing Russia out is always a good thing, if stability and human rights are of interest though. It's tons better in either country now than it was before.
dccoolgai 3y ago
There was a lot of borderline propaganda on US news media during the war in the 90s that a lot of people swallowed whole without thinking about it too much: "Serbs are bad. Everything they do is bad. Albanians and Croats are just simple innocent victims." (To the point that even the reporter doing most of the coverage at CNN was Albanian and no one thought that was a conflict of interest). The reality is, of course, a lot messier and more unpleasant: The region is filled with people who hate each other and tend to massacre each other along ethnic lines whenever one group gets the upper hand over the others. There's a reason every World War starts there. So NATO stepped in and basically said to Serbia "If there are non-Serbs in _your_ borders, they may form breakaway republics and you must let them secede. However, in Kosovo (your former state) Serbs may not do the same thing." Serbs were basically ethnically cleansed out of Kosovo under the "protection" of NATO Kfor. There are multiple accounts of NATO forces standing a few feet away and watching as Albanians burn and loot Serbian Orthodox churches and villages. I'm not sure what "the way out" of this is, but I think US/NATO has a responsibility to treat all the sides equally, which they don't exactly have a great track record of doing.
- surfingdino 3y ago
  WWII started with Germany invading Poland. That's a few good kilometres North of Kosovo.
  - timeon 3y ago
    > Germany invading Poland Germany and Russia.
    - klausjensen 3y ago
      Outrageous! The army of USSR just took a field-trip to Poland to protect Soviet minorities! They then rounded up about 22,000 Polish military officers, took them to the Katyn Forest outside of Smolensk for a lovely picnic - as a show of good will. How these thousands of Polish officers ended up in mass graves with bullet holes in the back of their heads remains a mystery. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
helij 3y ago
All that is happening today is because Kosovo government didn't implement what they signed[0]. Further, Kosovo is not recognised as a country by the majority of the world and multiple EU and NATO countries, and is officially still Serbia as per UN[1]. Current Kosovo government is completely anti-democratic[2]. We have a tricky situation of double standards here. Serbia(Kosovo), Ukraine(Donbas) and Azerbaijan(Nagorno-Karabakh). That's what's wrong with the world. We apply different solutions to same problems and people are hurting. I don't know what the way out from this is apart from being nice to eachother and put arms down. [0]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/serbia-kosovo-historic-agreement-brussels https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/serbia-kosovo-... [1]https://peacemaker.un.org/kosovo-resolution1244 https://peacemaker.un.org/kosovo-resolution1244 [2]https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/news/early-elections-in-north-kosovo-next-step-eu-says/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/n...
- dathos 3y ago
  If you write that list of countries and the regions they claim, wouldn’t Ukraine(Donbas) change into Russia(Donbas)? This is just short sighted regardless of that, that agreement in context is unfair to the people of Kosovo.
  - helij 3y ago
    No, as all provinces mentioned are actually internationally recognised (UN) as part of mentioned countries. These three countries don't claim anything. They are recognised as such by the UN. The claim is actually on the other side.
    - dathos 3y ago
      The UN recognizing a country or not does not change history, Serbia is once again agitating for war but using this as an excuse now
      - helij 3y ago
        Changed the subject now and went with realpolitik did you. You can't just ignore it like that. You'll have anarchy. Either rules apply or they don't. You can't have it as you want it per specific case. Either international law applies or not. Sui generis is not recognised. Reality now that becomes history tomorrow is being changed all the time by good and bad actors. It looks to me you are the one who advocates for 'boots on the ground' reality and history. Reality today is that Serbs in Kosovo are oppressed. I don't see it like you that Serbia is agitating anything, especially not for war. The status quo works more in Serbia's favour. They are developing into a decent to live country slowly, connected with EU and wider world. Data is there. Why would they risk it? I know, I know, Serbs are the bad guys, so easy to point finger at, no matter who did what.
marko-lev 3y ago
None of you know what you're talking about.
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  And if you know this, you could drop some knowledge. Even better, you could drop some sources of knowledge.
- marko-lev 3y ago
  Good job proving me right.
LindeBuzoGray 3y ago
[flagged]
- dooraven 3y ago
  Difference is that Serbia was actively committing ethnic cleansing. That being said I do think Northern Serbia should be allowed to join Serbia and Srpska be allowed to join Serbia too. The land swap deal was a good idea, shame the EU vetoed it.
  - LindeBuzoGray 3y ago
    > Difference is that Serbia was actively committing ethnic cleansing I just watched videos today of an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Karbakh that is happening today. Although from the mouths of a lot of western governments this is not an ethnic cleansing but a lot of Armenians spontaneously deciding to leave after a military invasion. The Ukraine was fighting to regain its territory prior to Russia's intervention, and Russia was effectively accusing the Ukraine of performing an ethnic cleansing of Luhansk/Dotensk. Whether accurate or not, this was their justification for intervention too. What I'm saying is it seems depending on a country's interests, what is an ethnic cleansing and what is not seems in eye of the beholder.
    - lolinder 3y ago
      Russia patterned its behavior to look like the Kosovo war precisely so people like you would defend them in the West, but they have pretty clearly shown at this point that it was all smoke screen to cover a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Any claims to be protecting Russian minorities were a sham put forward by Putin to distract from his true aim of expanding Russian territory and installing a puppet in Ukraine. When a NATO state annexes Kosovo and invades Serbia to try to oust its president, we can talk double standards. Until then, the evidence suggests that you're being played by a tyrant.
    - dooraven 3y ago
      > I just watched videos today of an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Karbakh that is happening today. Although from the mouths of a lot of western governments this is not an ethnic cleansing but a lot of Armenians spontaneously deciding to leave after a military invasion. Yeah right now the Azeri government hasn't really done anything yet. Azeris and Armenians absolutely hate each other and Armenians there are rightly fearful of their lives but you really can't intervene on something that hasn't happened yet especially since Azerbaijan agreed to w/e US and EU asked with regards to minority protections etc (though the history of Azerbajian's government makes this questionable). > The Ukraine was fighting to regain its territory prior to Russia's intervention, and Russia was effectively accusing the Ukraine of performing an ethnic cleansing of Luhansk/Dotensk. Whether accurate or not, this was their justification for intervention too. Yep, and the US barely did anything there. The US provided weak support to Ukraine there but the general attitude was "Russia looking after Russian speaker interests" - the Obama admin in 2014/2015 (and either did Bush / Obama do anything in Georgia / South Ossetia) didn't do much to stop it or help ukraine. Germany / France / Europe were still trading with Russia etc. It's only when Putin decided to invade Ukraine proper did the West react because there really isn't a good justification for invading Kiev > What I'm saying is it seems depending on a country's interests, what is an ethnic cleansing and what is not seems in eye of the beholder. Generally agree but Serbia refused to compromise on anything (eg they banned the Albanian language in schools). NATO only decided to intervene when the Račak massacre happened and I don't think there is any documented proof of that happening in Ukraine / Karabah right now. Basically until proper massacres are documented, intervention rarely happens.
hackandthink 3y ago
I just know one thing about this conflict. It is not my business and NATO should get out of Kosovo. Bismarck was right that time.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Eumenes 3y ago
Cool, they can have their ethnic warfare, the WH and US should quit the interventionist BS
- cycrutchfield 3y ago
  “Stop intervening while I’m trying to genocide! I’m super serious this time guys!”
guilhas 3y ago
The region never healed after NATO bombings on the former Yugoslavia
- lolinder 3y ago
  The region has been unstable for centuries. Instability in the Balkans sparked World War I! NATO bombings may not have helped matters, but you make it sound like everything would have been calm and happy there if NATO had just stayed out of it.
- nylonstrung 3y ago
  Yeah, I'm sure it was the 1500 killed by NATO and not the 140,000 killed + 4 million displaced from 7 separate wars
  - cycrutchfield 3y ago
    How dare big bad NATO not let me genocide my neighbors. Clearly NATO is the source of all the problems in the region.
    - guilhas 3y ago
      Clearly they didn't prevent any genocide, from the multiple sides in the region
      - cycrutchfield 3y ago
        Clearly?
  - guilhas 3y ago
    Only supporting the "rebels" from the "opresive" government NATO comes bombs everything, the country stays in conflict for many years to come Same story everytime, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Yugoslavia... Only in Ukraine the "rebels" were the bad guys Documentary on Illegal NATO War in Serbia Kosovo propaganda https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Y9WAZjmXk https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Y9WAZjmXk
FollowingTheDao 3y ago
[flagged]
- lolinder 3y ago
  I don't think the US needs to justify the existence of NATO any more, Russia very handily demonstrated what happens to countries that aren't part of it.
  - FollowingTheDao 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - lolinder 3y ago
      Russia invading Ukraine makes NATO a bully? Are you implying that Russia is secretly a US puppet state intentionally trying to scare its neighbors into NATO's arms?
      - FollowingTheDao 3y ago
        No, I am saying NATO is the bully which caused Russia to react. Is that so unbelievable?
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
vik0 3y ago
Whatever happens, I just pray that Kosovo's population doesn't decide to come to my country again and not leave when the war is over, again (if a war was to happen). I'm from (North) Macedonia.
giardini 3y ago
The attitudes of some peoples in these regions reminds me of a story: Two peasants lived across the road from each other. One morning, one of them found his milk cow dead in the barn. Without his milk cow he had no income and no future. Despairing, he fell upon the ground, wailing and begging God's mercy. So deep was his agony and so eloquent his prayers that God Himself heard and spoke to him: "Your entreaties have touched me, my son, and I shall grant you mercy. How may I help you?" Thinking for a moment, the peasant replied: "Kill my neighbor’s milk cow." ------------------------------- Here's another more complex version of the joke with analysis of the attitude/psychology that may underlie it: https://andrewtobias.com/kill-my-neighbors-cow/ https://andrewtobias.com/kill-my-neighbors-cow/ (Scroll to the bottom under "RUSSIA PERSPECTIVE")

149 points by perihelions 3y ago

noncoml 3y ago

“My troops are merely passing by”

WhatsName 3y ago
"We are just doing an exercise"
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

boeingUH60 3y ago

Oops, please not again…

techdragon 3y ago
Literally my first thought upon reading the headline… “oh not this shit again”…. I mean really I know tensions can simmer for decades but seriously I thought this was one place that after all the breakups and border redefining we had some kind of lasting if somewhat tenuous peace…
- xxs 3y ago
  >one place that after all the breakups and border redefining we had some kind of lasting if somewhat tenuous peace… The Balkans?! Where each country borders its own borders/territories of old. I don't think the conflict would escalate, though.
  - techdragon 3y ago
    I mean yeah, I knew it wasn’t “settled” but it had the feel of the bar/pub fight just after the owner brings out the baseball bat and everyone quickly realised it’s a good idea to stop punching… everyone still has some grudges but they mostly got it out of their system and until someone actively starts some new shit… no one feels particularly compelled to start a fight themselves… its the “grumbling about grievances you don’t quite feel strongly enough to start a fight over” not the “I’ve got a knife on me and I’m trying to stir someone else up to start the fight so no one pins it on me”.
    - xxs 3y ago
      >everyone quickly realised it’s a good idea to stop punching… The Balkans have been boiling for ~1400 years or so (more if you include Macedonia's claim on Alexander the Great's empire). Modern day (19th century) massacres of thousands of people originate on the Balkans, too... no idea how/when it might be over.
  - RetroTechie 3y ago
    More like Europe in general. There is hardly a country in Europe that wasn't in a number of wars and/or its borders redefined several times. Europe's history is full of clashes between & within its states.
- willcipriano 3y ago
  Ah young Willie McBride, I can't help wonder why Do those that lie here know why did they die? And did they believe when they answered the cause Did they really believe that this war would end wars? Well the sorrow, the suffering, the glory, the pain The killing and dying, were all done in vain For young Willie McBride, it all happened again And again, and again, and again, and again
  - secfirstmd 3y ago
    Love this Furies song. Great one for singing over a trad session in Dublin
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
3seashells 3y ago
[flagged]
- johndunne 3y ago
  Blowing up all places of worship is one of the core tenets thats the root of the problem there. How about enabling future generations the space to respect each others principles and not have the 2/3/4 enemies fermenting troubles.
  - demondemidi 3y ago
    Fomenting
    - impish9208 3y ago
      Fermenting troubles does sound better than fomenting them
      - demondemidi 3y ago
        True. I picture shady little microbes with shifty eyes.
  - techdragon 3y ago
    The balkans is one of the places I feel needs to just go for the lots of “city states” with alliances and treaties between them as they individually desire… I genuinely don’t know how they can really draw a map around any relatively “country sized” contiguous area (yes I know some countries are tiny Im suggesting they need a lot of such tiny countries, I’m talking about areas roughly the size of the current countries or a bit smaller or larger) … and hope to use the new borders to somehow settle things… the area is basically fractured like some bad sci-fi or cyberpunk city where there’s an overall “city” but every neighbourhood or two is vastly different… like this Chinatown is the recent immigrants Chinatown, then there’s little Italy, then you’ve got Japantown, oh now it’s the mixed Anglo suburb, oh now it’s the Chinatown for immigrants who’ve been here for over a hundred years and who have a very different culture to the recent immigrants, oh and now it’s little Russia and here’s little Vietnam…. There’s no stitching this together properly without making it worse… let the mess break up into tiny countries with borders they are happy with, kick anyone that wants to control too much surrounding territory (as in they think someone else’s city state shouldn’t exist) square in the head and just protect the lot with either a permanent NATO presence or use it as the excuse to give Frontex the EU’s common border and coast guard a sibling and actually make a damn Army of the European Union, have some fun with the name even, the European Union Defence Forces doesn’t sound too bad in French either, “Forces dē défense de l’Union Européenne” FDUE, EUDF, im just using Google translate so I’m sure some actual French speaking people could probably come up with another clever NATO style name where the acronym is the same in French…

alephnerd 3y ago

It will deescalate. KFOR, the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, has gotten a larger troop deployment in the last week [0]. Serbian soldiers crossing into Kosovo is a clear violation of the Kumanova Agreement AND unlike Russia-Ukraine they will be de facto declaring war against the US and NATO due to the American and EU boots on the ground, and bye bye 25 years of work to try and join the EU. It's just election posturing by Serbia, as Vucic promised calling a snap election in the coming weeks in the aftermath of a mass shooting in May 2023 [1] destroying his popularity and sparking mass protests reminiscent of Euromaidan and Gezi Park. [0] - https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo-prime-minister-albin-kurti-banjska-tensions-serbia-rise/ https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-builds-up-forces-kosovo... [1] - https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-snap-election-2023-aleksandr-vucic-mass-shootings-protests/ https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-snap-election-2023-al...

bojan 3y ago
A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since then, since the current governing parties are in power, there hasn't been anything done. They don't care. For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture. My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country. I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s

knodi 3y ago

[flagged]

peter_retief 3y ago
Nato and the US are very weak at the moment, not sure what asset you could be referring to?
- johnchristopher 3y ago
  Probably Trump (as in "Russian asset").
- voidfunc 3y ago
  Trump
  - peter_retief 3y ago
    I initially thought that but assumed the level of discourse on HN was a bit higher than that :)
    - johnchristopher 3y ago
      It should at least be high enough not to down vote comments explaining/pointing that "asset" in this context most likely refers to Trump. Oh, well.
      - peter_retief 3y ago
        Well I voted you up to cancel the down vote, thanks for the answer. PSYOP's seems to have degraded common sense. Remember Marcus Aurelius who wrote about 2202 years ago “Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”
    - the_only_law 3y ago
      > but assumed the level of discourse on HN was a bit higher than that :) You know what they say about assuming…

0dayz 3y ago

This is really playing with fire by the Serbian government, and I don't think I can understand their strategy if it involves trying to force out kfor. I'm also very concerned about Bosnia situation where similar nonsense is brewing up. What I find even more laughable is that Serbia could have been the majority player in the region if they weren't just doing imperialism.

xxs 3y ago
For Serbia to be anywhere a remotely important player would need to join the EU - looks at the former Yugoslavia states - Croatia and Slovenia (which Serbia had wars with), they are doing way better. However, if Serbs are to the EU, they would have to fall in-line, so ain't gonna happen (become a player)
- BrandoElFollito 3y ago
  They would have to fall in line until they join. After that it will be one more country to pull the EU in its direction. I am very much pro-European but the way the organization works is not viable. Particularly the requirement to have agreement from everyone on everything is not scalable.
  - hutzlibu 3y ago
    "Particularly the requirement to have agreement from everyone on everything is not scalable." So far it mostly works, no? I really do not want the EU to become a unionized state that engages in imperialism. My main problem with the EU is the lack of transparency and democracy.
    - BrandoElFollito 3y ago
      > So far it mostly works, no? Not really. It works in some cases but globally you have laws that are not applied in countries because it is how it works. I am not an economist and would love to see hard numbers about how the EU in its current constitution is better than having the core members alone. I am in France and see that we are a net payer which does not make me happy. Not because we pay, but rather because how countries that receive this money use it.

3seashells 3y ago

Stirring up shit for Russia. Next level.

The_Colonel 3y ago
I don't think there's any relation to the war in Ukraine. There just isn't really a mechanism for one to influence the other.
- gonzo41 3y ago
  Yes there is. Western and EU attention will pivot to Kosovo. This could undermine the focus and resolve the of the west with Ukraine.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  Distracting NATO with a second conflict doesn't influence the first? Come on.
  - cycrutchfield 3y ago
    NATO could send Serbia back to the Stone Age with their pinky finger. If anything, a second military conflict in Eastern Europe might further increase support and military budget in NATO countries.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      > NATO could send Serbia back to the Stone Age with their pinky finger. Yes, nuclear genocide is indeed quick, but not super viable. Even the limited air strikes in 1999 took months, and pretending it wouldn't all be a diplomatic and military distraction is just silly.
      - cycrutchfield 3y ago
        Nobody said anything about nukes.

lousken 3y ago

seems like two dogs barking https://old.reddit.com/r/serbia/comments/16vlpkv/napadi_na_srbe_na_kosovu_samo_ovog_meseca_photo/?limit=500&sort=top https://old.reddit.com/r/serbia/comments/16vlpkv/napadi_na_s...

alephnerd 3y ago
It's election season in Serbia, and the ruling president Vucic (basically a Serbian Erdogan) might actually lose.

MightyBuzzard 3y ago

[dead]

andrewstuart 3y ago

Here we go again more war. Never stops.

cf141q5325 3y ago

Its worth mentioning that there is a second perspective to this being a matter of EU/NATO vs Serbia. Aljazeera had an interesting opinion piece framing it as Kosovo getting dropped to achieve Serbian integration into the western block https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-still-want-a-democratic-kosovo https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-s... Cant say anything about the plausibility but the references to EU sanctions against Kosovo and the former president of Kosovo being currently on trial in the Hague are interesting points. Non opinion piece on the background https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standoff-with-serbs-continues-15-years-after-statehood https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standof... Would be happy to hear from anyone familiar with that perspective, it was news to me. But pressuring Kosovo to play ball in the negotiations doesnt seem to be out of the question?

bojan 3y ago
This is from before the latest events. Since then Serbia has escalated the situation. The current President of Kosovo is a hard-liner that refuses to implement agreement made before he got elected. He is being rightly pressured on that point, even though I understand and even partially agree with his reasons. Thaci is also on trial with a good reason. There are a lot of indications he did commit crimes. It's a good thing the matter will be put to rest one way or another. So they aren't really pressuring Kosovo, they are being neutralan, trying to get both sides to co-operate using the few tools they have on their disposal.

boomskats 3y ago

It's a shitshow on both sides. On the one side, the Serbian president is exactly what the rest of the comments here describe him as, and worse. The situation would be infinitely better if he recognised Kosovo and moved on. Instead, he keeps the question open purely for his own political advantage, ensuring that the tensions remain at the expense of the people. On the other side, Kosovo is a military industrial complex puppet state that they've cut ties with/lost control of (intentionally or otherwise). It has been ramping up its opportunistic bullying and provocative abuse of the minority population in the north, who as of last year have no representation at all in local government, and are pretty helpless. The unfortunate victims at this point in time are the minority Serbs in northern Kosovo, and more widely, the general Serbian population, who just like in the case of Brexit are being held hostage by their predominantly older, state-owned TV-watching, voting population who overwhelmingly vote for Vucic. Meanwhile, weapons have been flooding into the region from both the east and the west at alarming rates for the last couple of years, so he must be useful to someone. Nobody wants this, but war is money, so here we are.

matusp 3y ago
It's as if creating a new state from a thin air without any consideration for the ethnical minorities that will stay there was a bad idea. The problem here is that US politics in the region was never meant to create peace, it was meant to get influence and push Russia out. The solutions for both Kosovo and Bosnia were pretty obviously leading to failed state territory from the get go and the whole region will be devastated by these decisions in the decades to come.
- brnt 3y ago
  Especially Bosnia, there was very much no correlation between territory and ethnicity, so the difficulty is built in. I don't know if this was much better in Kosovo, it does seem like that sliver of mostly Serbians are on the wrong side of the border, but since this is, you know, the Balkans, I expect the answer to be more complicated than a simple "America did what was in it's best interest". Pushing Russia out is always a good thing, if stability and human rights are of interest though. It's tons better in either country now than it was before.

dccoolgai 3y ago

There was a lot of borderline propaganda on US news media during the war in the 90s that a lot of people swallowed whole without thinking about it too much: "Serbs are bad. Everything they do is bad. Albanians and Croats are just simple innocent victims." (To the point that even the reporter doing most of the coverage at CNN was Albanian and no one thought that was a conflict of interest). The reality is, of course, a lot messier and more unpleasant: The region is filled with people who hate each other and tend to massacre each other along ethnic lines whenever one group gets the upper hand over the others. There's a reason every World War starts there. So NATO stepped in and basically said to Serbia "If there are non-Serbs in _your_ borders, they may form breakaway republics and you must let them secede. However, in Kosovo (your former state) Serbs may not do the same thing." Serbs were basically ethnically cleansed out of Kosovo under the "protection" of NATO Kfor. There are multiple accounts of NATO forces standing a few feet away and watching as Albanians burn and loot Serbian Orthodox churches and villages. I'm not sure what "the way out" of this is, but I think US/NATO has a responsibility to treat all the sides equally, which they don't exactly have a great track record of doing.

surfingdino 3y ago
WWII started with Germany invading Poland. That's a few good kilometres North of Kosovo.
- timeon 3y ago
  > Germany invading Poland Germany and Russia.
  - klausjensen 3y ago
    Outrageous! The army of USSR just took a field-trip to Poland to protect Soviet minorities! They then rounded up about 22,000 Polish military officers, took them to the Katyn Forest outside of Smolensk for a lovely picnic - as a show of good will. How these thousands of Polish officers ended up in mass graves with bullet holes in the back of their heads remains a mystery. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

helij 3y ago

All that is happening today is because Kosovo government didn't implement what they signed[0]. Further, Kosovo is not recognised as a country by the majority of the world and multiple EU and NATO countries, and is officially still Serbia as per UN[1]. Current Kosovo government is completely anti-democratic[2]. We have a tricky situation of double standards here. Serbia(Kosovo), Ukraine(Donbas) and Azerbaijan(Nagorno-Karabakh). That's what's wrong with the world. We apply different solutions to same problems and people are hurting. I don't know what the way out from this is apart from being nice to eachother and put arms down. [0]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/serbia-kosovo-historic-agreement-brussels https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/serbia-kosovo-... [1]https://peacemaker.un.org/kosovo-resolution1244 https://peacemaker.un.org/kosovo-resolution1244 [2]https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/news/early-elections-in-north-kosovo-next-step-eu-says/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/n...

dathos 3y ago
If you write that list of countries and the regions they claim, wouldn’t Ukraine(Donbas) change into Russia(Donbas)? This is just short sighted regardless of that, that agreement in context is unfair to the people of Kosovo.
- helij 3y ago
  No, as all provinces mentioned are actually internationally recognised (UN) as part of mentioned countries. These three countries don't claim anything. They are recognised as such by the UN. The claim is actually on the other side.
  - dathos 3y ago
    The UN recognizing a country or not does not change history, Serbia is once again agitating for war but using this as an excuse now
    - helij 3y ago
      Changed the subject now and went with realpolitik did you. You can't just ignore it like that. You'll have anarchy. Either rules apply or they don't. You can't have it as you want it per specific case. Either international law applies or not. Sui generis is not recognised. Reality now that becomes history tomorrow is being changed all the time by good and bad actors. It looks to me you are the one who advocates for 'boots on the ground' reality and history. Reality today is that Serbs in Kosovo are oppressed. I don't see it like you that Serbia is agitating anything, especially not for war. The status quo works more in Serbia's favour. They are developing into a decent to live country slowly, connected with EU and wider world. Data is there. Why would they risk it? I know, I know, Serbs are the bad guys, so easy to point finger at, no matter who did what.

marko-lev 3y ago

None of you know what you're talking about.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
And if you know this, you could drop some knowledge. Even better, you could drop some sources of knowledge.
marko-lev 3y ago
Good job proving me right.

LindeBuzoGray 3y ago

[flagged]

dooraven 3y ago
Difference is that Serbia was actively committing ethnic cleansing. That being said I do think Northern Serbia should be allowed to join Serbia and Srpska be allowed to join Serbia too. The land swap deal was a good idea, shame the EU vetoed it.
- LindeBuzoGray 3y ago
  > Difference is that Serbia was actively committing ethnic cleansing I just watched videos today of an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Karbakh that is happening today. Although from the mouths of a lot of western governments this is not an ethnic cleansing but a lot of Armenians spontaneously deciding to leave after a military invasion. The Ukraine was fighting to regain its territory prior to Russia's intervention, and Russia was effectively accusing the Ukraine of performing an ethnic cleansing of Luhansk/Dotensk. Whether accurate or not, this was their justification for intervention too. What I'm saying is it seems depending on a country's interests, what is an ethnic cleansing and what is not seems in eye of the beholder.
  - lolinder 3y ago
    Russia patterned its behavior to look like the Kosovo war precisely so people like you would defend them in the West, but they have pretty clearly shown at this point that it was all smoke screen to cover a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Any claims to be protecting Russian minorities were a sham put forward by Putin to distract from his true aim of expanding Russian territory and installing a puppet in Ukraine. When a NATO state annexes Kosovo and invades Serbia to try to oust its president, we can talk double standards. Until then, the evidence suggests that you're being played by a tyrant.
  - dooraven 3y ago
    > I just watched videos today of an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Karbakh that is happening today. Although from the mouths of a lot of western governments this is not an ethnic cleansing but a lot of Armenians spontaneously deciding to leave after a military invasion. Yeah right now the Azeri government hasn't really done anything yet. Azeris and Armenians absolutely hate each other and Armenians there are rightly fearful of their lives but you really can't intervene on something that hasn't happened yet especially since Azerbaijan agreed to w/e US and EU asked with regards to minority protections etc (though the history of Azerbajian's government makes this questionable). > The Ukraine was fighting to regain its territory prior to Russia's intervention, and Russia was effectively accusing the Ukraine of performing an ethnic cleansing of Luhansk/Dotensk. Whether accurate or not, this was their justification for intervention too. Yep, and the US barely did anything there. The US provided weak support to Ukraine there but the general attitude was "Russia looking after Russian speaker interests" - the Obama admin in 2014/2015 (and either did Bush / Obama do anything in Georgia / South Ossetia) didn't do much to stop it or help ukraine. Germany / France / Europe were still trading with Russia etc. It's only when Putin decided to invade Ukraine proper did the West react because there really isn't a good justification for invading Kiev > What I'm saying is it seems depending on a country's interests, what is an ethnic cleansing and what is not seems in eye of the beholder. Generally agree but Serbia refused to compromise on anything (eg they banned the Albanian language in schools). NATO only decided to intervene when the Račak massacre happened and I don't think there is any documented proof of that happening in Ukraine / Karabah right now. Basically until proper massacres are documented, intervention rarely happens.

hackandthink 3y ago

I just know one thing about this conflict. It is not my business and NATO should get out of Kosovo. Bismarck was right that time.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Eumenes 3y ago

Cool, they can have their ethnic warfare, the WH and US should quit the interventionist BS

cycrutchfield 3y ago
“Stop intervening while I’m trying to genocide! I’m super serious this time guys!”

guilhas 3y ago

The region never healed after NATO bombings on the former Yugoslavia

lolinder 3y ago
The region has been unstable for centuries. Instability in the Balkans sparked World War I! NATO bombings may not have helped matters, but you make it sound like everything would have been calm and happy there if NATO had just stayed out of it.
nylonstrung 3y ago
Yeah, I'm sure it was the 1500 killed by NATO and not the 140,000 killed + 4 million displaced from 7 separate wars
- cycrutchfield 3y ago
  How dare big bad NATO not let me genocide my neighbors. Clearly NATO is the source of all the problems in the region.
  - guilhas 3y ago
    Clearly they didn't prevent any genocide, from the multiple sides in the region
    - cycrutchfield 3y ago
      Clearly?
- guilhas 3y ago
  Only supporting the "rebels" from the "opresive" government NATO comes bombs everything, the country stays in conflict for many years to come Same story everytime, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Yugoslavia... Only in Ukraine the "rebels" were the bad guys Documentary on Illegal NATO War in Serbia Kosovo propaganda https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Y9WAZjmXk https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Y9WAZjmXk

FollowingTheDao 3y ago

[flagged]

lolinder 3y ago
I don't think the US needs to justify the existence of NATO any more, Russia very handily demonstrated what happens to countries that aren't part of it.
- FollowingTheDao 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - lolinder 3y ago
    Russia invading Ukraine makes NATO a bully? Are you implying that Russia is secretly a US puppet state intentionally trying to scare its neighbors into NATO's arms?
    - FollowingTheDao 3y ago
      No, I am saying NATO is the bully which caused Russia to react. Is that so unbelievable?
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]

vik0 3y ago

Whatever happens, I just pray that Kosovo's population doesn't decide to come to my country again and not leave when the war is over, again (if a war was to happen). I'm from (North) Macedonia.

giardini 3y ago

The attitudes of some peoples in these regions reminds me of a story: Two peasants lived across the road from each other. One morning, one of them found his milk cow dead in the barn. Without his milk cow he had no income and no future. Despairing, he fell upon the ground, wailing and begging God's mercy. So deep was his agony and so eloquent his prayers that God Himself heard and spoke to him: "Your entreaties have touched me, my son, and I shall grant you mercy. How may I help you?" Thinking for a moment, the peasant replied: "Kill my neighbor’s milk cow." ------------------------------- Here's another more complex version of the joke with analysis of the attitude/psychology that may underlie it: https://andrewtobias.com/kill-my-neighbors-cow/ https://andrewtobias.com/kill-my-neighbors-cow/ (Scroll to the bottom under "RUSSIA PERSPECTIVE")