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I worry about Apple. They've had a great run, but where can their next $billion market come from? To an extent, the current share price will be factoring in f

I worry about Apple. They've had a great run, but where can their next $billion market come from? To an extent, the current share price will be factoring in future growth on the same trajectory as we've observed over the last few years.

forrestblount 15y ago
The question with AAPL is really do you think smartphones and tablets, as product segments unto themselves, have reached market saturation? I think we'll still see massive increases in the sheer number of smartphones and tablets sold, and I think AAPL will manage to retain a significant (not necessarily a majority) market share.
- polshaw 15y ago
  You also have to consider if you think apple could continue to keep their margins in an established tablet market, and a smartphone market approaching 'good enough' like that of PCs today, and whether consumers will continue to accept a 'walled garden' as tablets become primary computing devices. E: I'd like to clarify I'm including stuff like no USB ports in walled garden.
  - intended 15y ago
    This next statement is probably going to get me nuked, but: I think people have accepted the walled garden model and they like it. In a perverse way, their success is partly because of the PC era itself. The lowered expectations people have of computational devices from windows makes. Having something that "Just works" such a blessing, for such a ridiculous portion of all consumers, that their "walled garden" translates into "sanctuary" for most human beings. IF in the future mature market, other tablets have also reached a stage where "it just works", then its an even playing field. At that point,the walled garden will be just another field to walk between. Edited for clarity
- cdavid 15y ago
  Many people feel the same way as you do, which means the information is very likely already in the current share price. Buying APPL stock today implies that you think apple will to better than current expectations, not current apple market share, etc...
maigret 15y ago
But due to their relatively low P/E, they don't even need to grow that much to still be worth. Their current P/E is not forecasting a huge growth in the next years. It's not the same for, say Amazon. They'll need to earn 5x more to get back in the "standard zone". So investors seem to think Amazon still has a huge growth forward.

forrestblount 15y ago

The question with AAPL is really do you think smartphones and tablets, as product segments unto themselves, have reached market saturation? I think we'll still see massive increases in the sheer number of smartphones and tablets sold, and I think AAPL will manage to retain a significant (not necessarily a majority) market share.

polshaw 15y ago
You also have to consider if you think apple could continue to keep their margins in an established tablet market, and a smartphone market approaching 'good enough' like that of PCs today, and whether consumers will continue to accept a 'walled garden' as tablets become primary computing devices. E: I'd like to clarify I'm including stuff like no USB ports in walled garden.
- intended 15y ago
  This next statement is probably going to get me nuked, but: I think people have accepted the walled garden model and they like it. In a perverse way, their success is partly because of the PC era itself. The lowered expectations people have of computational devices from windows makes. Having something that "Just works" such a blessing, for such a ridiculous portion of all consumers, that their "walled garden" translates into "sanctuary" for most human beings. IF in the future mature market, other tablets have also reached a stage where "it just works", then its an even playing field. At that point,the walled garden will be just another field to walk between. Edited for clarity
cdavid 15y ago
Many people feel the same way as you do, which means the information is very likely already in the current share price. Buying APPL stock today implies that you think apple will to better than current expectations, not current apple market share, etc...

maigret 15y ago

But due to their relatively low P/E, they don't even need to grow that much to still be worth. Their current P/E is not forecasting a huge growth in the next years. It's not the same for, say Amazon. They'll need to earn 5x more to get back in the "standard zone". So investors seem to think Amazon still has a huge growth forward.