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Economy is about to take a nose dive if you haven't been reading the tea leaves. This is both pre-emptive for the coming downturn and a correction for the covi

Economy is about to take a nose dive if you haven't been reading the tea leaves. This is both pre-emptive for the coming downturn and a correction for the covid over hiring. Buckle up.

tqi 3y ago
I'm curious what signals you're seeing? (I don't pay much attention to this so I haven't really heard anything)
- Kye 3y ago
  I don't know about them, but I do know that between rising costs and already insufficient wages and sallaries, a growing number of people are riding on the absolute edge of solvency. All it takes is one big push. Like, for example: an end to pauses on payments for debts, expiring eviction bans/moratoriums, companies looking to dump housing and commercial buildings causing a collapse in prices that other financial instruments depend on, government shutdown (and financial consequences of just the threat) leading an enormous group of already marginal people to fall over the edge. And that's just a few minutes of coming up with plausible things. Something has to give and, historically speaking, something will.
- r00fus 3y ago
  I am ambivalent about a downturn but the resumption of student loan repayments could pull $100B ($9B/mo) out of the market [1] - which might directly impact Epic's market. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-100-billion-drag-on-u-s-consumer-spending-is-coming-heres-whats-behind-it-e2bc622f https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-100-billion-drag-on-u-s-...
- jgilias 3y ago
  They say that there’s long and variable lag between the monetary policy being made and its effects on the economy. Soon after they started hiking the rates there were some of the biggest bank failures in US history which amounted to nothing much because they basically hit snooze on it by effectively promising to back 100% of deposits well above the FDIC threshold. Supposedly this measure runs out in a year from when it was made. I’m not going to try and predict what and when exactly is going to happen. If you like lines and extrapolation, you can go to the St Louis fed website and plot yield curve inversion and effective fed rate.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
ryeguy 3y ago
The economy has been "about to take a nosedive" for quite some time now.
- enriquec 3y ago
  Well... How are medical prices? Education prices? Food? Energy? Savings? Rent? Housing? What about the massive layoffs? Even if you're not struggling - many others objectively are dealing with the realities of a harsh economic downturn.
  - delfinom 3y ago
    Food prices and related prices have been proven for awhile now to be mostly corporations massively increasing profit margins instead of inflation. Housing prices will continue to be an indefinite bubble due to boomer economics. Healthcare is a disaster in this country and will never be fixed because of Citizens United. None of this is due to the economic downturn.
    - ddorian43 3y ago
      What about the interest rates? What is boomer economics?
    - enriquec 3y ago
      > Food prices and related prices have been proven for awhile now to be mostly corporations massively increasing profit margins instead of inflation Total nonsense. Businesses are closing.

Economy is about to take a nose dive if you haven't been reading the tea leaves. This is both pre-emptive for the coming downturn and a correction for the covid over hiring. Buckle up.

tqi 3y ago

I'm curious what signals you're seeing? (I don't pay much attention to this so I haven't really heard anything)

Kye 3y ago
I don't know about them, but I do know that between rising costs and already insufficient wages and sallaries, a growing number of people are riding on the absolute edge of solvency. All it takes is one big push. Like, for example: an end to pauses on payments for debts, expiring eviction bans/moratoriums, companies looking to dump housing and commercial buildings causing a collapse in prices that other financial instruments depend on, government shutdown (and financial consequences of just the threat) leading an enormous group of already marginal people to fall over the edge. And that's just a few minutes of coming up with plausible things. Something has to give and, historically speaking, something will.
r00fus 3y ago
I am ambivalent about a downturn but the resumption of student loan repayments could pull $100B ($9B/mo) out of the market [1] - which might directly impact Epic's market. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-100-billion-drag-on-u-s-consumer-spending-is-coming-heres-whats-behind-it-e2bc622f https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-100-billion-drag-on-u-s-...
jgilias 3y ago
They say that there’s long and variable lag between the monetary policy being made and its effects on the economy. Soon after they started hiking the rates there were some of the biggest bank failures in US history which amounted to nothing much because they basically hit snooze on it by effectively promising to back 100% of deposits well above the FDIC threshold. Supposedly this measure runs out in a year from when it was made. I’m not going to try and predict what and when exactly is going to happen. If you like lines and extrapolation, you can go to the St Louis fed website and plot yield curve inversion and effective fed rate.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

ryeguy 3y ago

The economy has been "about to take a nosedive" for quite some time now.

enriquec 3y ago
Well... How are medical prices? Education prices? Food? Energy? Savings? Rent? Housing? What about the massive layoffs? Even if you're not struggling - many others objectively are dealing with the realities of a harsh economic downturn.
- delfinom 3y ago
  Food prices and related prices have been proven for awhile now to be mostly corporations massively increasing profit margins instead of inflation. Housing prices will continue to be an indefinite bubble due to boomer economics. Healthcare is a disaster in this country and will never be fixed because of Citizens United. None of this is due to the economic downturn.
  - ddorian43 3y ago
    What about the interest rates? What is boomer economics?
  - enriquec 3y ago
    > Food prices and related prices have been proven for awhile now to be mostly corporations massively increasing profit margins instead of inflation Total nonsense. Businesses are closing.