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> Would you be willing to pay an extra $3.5 per month to never have to worry about a drought again? Yes, you'll never have to worry about your basic supply of

> Would you be willing to pay an extra $3.5 per month to never have to worry about a drought again? Yes, you'll never have to worry about your basic supply of 50 gal/d/person being threatened in a drought, but just think about this for a second: the population of Melbourne is around 5 million people. In the 2020-2021 year, Melbourne Water delivered 439 billion liters (116 billion gallons) of fresh water[1]. That is roughly 318 million gallons of water consumption on an average day. What kind of drought would reduce the available water from 318 million gallons to 25 million gallons per day? Personal consumption (drinking, showering, household washing) is not the primary driver of water use. In general, it is dominated by agriculture, and to a lesser extent by industry. The economics of these activities would not permit an order of magnitude increase in the cost of fresh water. [1]: https://www.melbournewater.com.au/media/18976/download https://www.melbournewater.com.au/media/18976/download

Veserv 3y ago
You missed a zero. 5 million people by 50 gallons/day is 250 million gallons/day. So they only missed by ~25%. Australia uses a estimated ~16T liters of water per year [1] for all uses including personal and agricultural. That is 16M ML * 600 AUD/ML for a total of ~10B AUD. Australia has a population of ~25M. So that is ~400 AUD/person to completely replace all water usage in Australia. As Australia is a island, I assume they do most of their own agriculture, so for additional 400 AUD on their food bill a year they never need to worry about a drought ever again. The Australian government appears to have a budget of ~500B/year which is around 25% of GDP [2]. So, for ~2% of the government budget or ~0.5% of GDP the economics are completely managed. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/water/ https://www.worldometers.info/water/ [2] https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview202021/AustralianGovernmentRevenue https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Depart...
- nwiswell 3y ago
  You're right, that was sloppy of me. It sounded right, but I think Melbourne Water statistics probably truly are dominated by domestic use, since it's a city. You can see the numbers don't match up; you're using a figure of 16T liters annually, whereas 25 million people * 50 gallons / day-person * 365 days * 3.785 liters/gallon is 1.727T trillion liters annually. Anyway, I am suspicious of the 600 AUD/ML figure, or else a lot more Gulf states would be food independent.
  - Veserv 3y ago
    Yes. Domestic use is a tiny fraction of all water usage. However, as you point out it is necessary to incorporate the food water to determine actual water independence. 600 AUD/ML is ~400 USD/ML. The Sorek B plant in Israel is profitably contracted at ~0.40 USD/m^3 [1] which is comparable. That is one of the largest plants with cutting edge technology and one of the cheapest prices I have seen in my research. A quote of 600 AUD/ML for desalinated water right now in Australia seems a tad questionable, but not outside of what is possible. 2-3x that number is almost certainly believable (though they almost certainly do not have bulk scale) and would only increase the costs to 1.5% of GDP. [1] https://ildesal.org.il/sorek-b-desalination-plant/ https://ildesal.org.il/sorek-b-desalination-plant/

Veserv 3y ago

You missed a zero. 5 million people by 50 gallons/day is 250 million gallons/day. So they only missed by ~25%. Australia uses a estimated ~16T liters of water per year [1] for all uses including personal and agricultural. That is 16M ML * 600 AUD/ML for a total of ~10B AUD. Australia has a population of ~25M. So that is ~400 AUD/person to completely replace all water usage in Australia. As Australia is a island, I assume they do most of their own agriculture, so for additional 400 AUD on their food bill a year they never need to worry about a drought ever again. The Australian government appears to have a budget of ~500B/year which is around 25% of GDP [2]. So, for ~2% of the government budget or ~0.5% of GDP the economics are completely managed. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/water/ https://www.worldometers.info/water/ [2] https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview202021/AustralianGovernmentRevenue https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Depart...

nwiswell 3y ago
You're right, that was sloppy of me. It sounded right, but I think Melbourne Water statistics probably truly are dominated by domestic use, since it's a city. You can see the numbers don't match up; you're using a figure of 16T liters annually, whereas 25 million people * 50 gallons / day-person * 365 days * 3.785 liters/gallon is 1.727T trillion liters annually. Anyway, I am suspicious of the 600 AUD/ML figure, or else a lot more Gulf states would be food independent.
- Veserv 3y ago
  Yes. Domestic use is a tiny fraction of all water usage. However, as you point out it is necessary to incorporate the food water to determine actual water independence. 600 AUD/ML is ~400 USD/ML. The Sorek B plant in Israel is profitably contracted at ~0.40 USD/m^3 [1] which is comparable. That is one of the largest plants with cutting edge technology and one of the cheapest prices I have seen in my research. A quote of 600 AUD/ML for desalinated water right now in Australia seems a tad questionable, but not outside of what is possible. 2-3x that number is almost certainly believable (though they almost certainly do not have bulk scale) and would only increase the costs to 1.5% of GDP. [1] https://ildesal.org.il/sorek-b-desalination-plant/ https://ildesal.org.il/sorek-b-desalination-plant/